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Modelling the impacts of cropland displacement on potential cereal production with four levels of China’s administrative boundaries

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Abstract

Cropland displacement, as an important characteristic of cropland change, places more emphasis on changes in spatial location than on quantity. The effects of cropland displacement on global and regional food production are of general concern in the context of urban expansion. Few studies have explored scale-effects, however, where cropland is displaced not only within, but also outside, the administrative boundary of a certain region. This study used a spatially explicit model (LANDSCAPE) to simulate the potential cropland displacement caused by urban land expansion from 2020 to 2040 at four scales of the Chinese administration system (national, provincial, municipal, and county levels). The corresponding changes in potential cereal production were then assessed by combining cereal productivity data. The results show that 4700 km2 of cropland will be occupied by urban expansion by 2040, and the same amount of cropland will be supplemented by forest, grassland, wetland, and unused land. The potential loss of cropland will result in the loss of 3.838×106 tons of cereal production, and the additional cropland will bring 3.546×106 tons, 3.831×106 tons, 3.836×106 tons, and 3.528×106 tons of potential cereal production in SN (national scale), SP (provincial scale), SM (municipal scale), and SC (county scale), respectively. Both SN and SC are observed to make a huge difference in cereal productivity between the lost and the supplemented cropland. We suggest that China should focus on the spatial allocation of cropland during large-scale displacement, especially at the national level.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Public Administration, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, 430079, China

    Bohan Yang, Siyu Sheng, Xianhua Dai & Xinhai Lu

  2. College of Public Administration, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, China

    Xinli Ke

  3. College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Xinhai Lu

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  1. Bohan Yang
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  2. Siyu Sheng
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  3. Xinli Ke
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  4. Xianhua Dai
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  5. Xinhai Lu
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Correspondence to Xinli Ke.

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Foundation

National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.42101280; Humanities and Social Science Fund of the Ministry of Education, No.20YJC630182, No.18YJA790018

Author

Yang Bohan, specialized in land system evolution and simulation. E-mail: bohan.yang@ccnu.edu.cn

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Yang, B., Sheng, S., Ke, X. et al. Modelling the impacts of cropland displacement on potential cereal production with four levels of China’s administrative boundaries. J. Geogr. Sci. 33, 18–36 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-023-2072-3

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