Abstract
Forest ecosystem, as a predominant component of terrestrial ecosystems in view of carbon sinks, has a high potential for carbon sequestration. Accurately estimating the carbon sequestration rate in forest ecosystems at provincial level, is a prerequisite and basis for scientifically formulating the technical approaches of carbon neutrality and the associated regulatory policies in China. However, few researches on future carbon sequestration rates (CSRs) for Chinese forest ecosystems for provincial-level regions (hereafter province) have been reported, especially for forest soils. In this study, we quantitatively assessed the carbon sequestration rates of existing forest ecosystems of all the provinces from 2010 to 2060 using the Forest Carbon Sequestration model (FCS), in combination with large quantities of field-measured data in China under three future climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Results showed that CSRs across provinces varied from 0.01 TgC a−1 to 36.74 TgC a−1, with a mean of 10.09 ± 0.43 TgC a−1. Inter-provincial differences have been observed in forest CSRs. Regarding the spatial variations in CSRs on a unit area basis within provinces, the eastern region provinces have a larger capacity for sequestration than the western region, while the western region has greater CSR per unit GDP and per capita. Moreover, there are significant negative correlations between the CSRs per capita in each province and the corresponding GDP per capita, under the assumption that GDP per capita is constant in the future across provinces. In summary, there is a significant regional imbalance in CSR among provinces. Special technological and policy interventions are required to realize carbon sink potential sustainably. An overlap in China’s poorer areas and areas with stronger carbon sinks has indicated that existing policies to support traditional carbon trading are insufficient. Regulatory measures such as “regional carbon compensation” must be adopted urgently in line with the Chinese characteristics, so that people in western or underdeveloped regions can consciously strengthen forest protection and enhance forest carbon sinks through coordinated regional development while ensuring that China’s forests play a greater role in carbon neutrality strategies.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bonan G B, 2008. Forests and climate change: Forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests. Science, 320(5882): 1444–1449. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155121.
Cai W X, He N P, Li M X et al., 2022. Carbon sequestration of Chinese forests from 2010 to 2060: Spatiotemporal dynamics and its regulatory strategies. Science Bulletin, 67(8): 836–843. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2021.12.012.
Cao M K, Woodward F I, 1998. Net primary and ecosystem production and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to climate change. Global Change Biology, 4(2): 185–198. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.1998.00125.x.
Chen Keyu, Zi Hongbiao, Ade Luji et al., 2018. Current stocks and potential of carbon sequestration of the forest tree layer in Qinghai Province, China. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 42(8): 831–840. https://doi.org/10.17521/cjpe.2018.0058. (in Chinese)
Chen L C, Guan X, Li H M et al., 2019. Spatiotemporal patterns of carbon storage in forest ecosystems in Hunan Province, China. Forest Ecology and Management, 432: 656–666. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2018.09.059.
Clay L, Motallebi M, Song B, 2019. An analysis of common forest management practices for carbon sequestration in south Carolina. Forests, 10(11): 949. https://doi.org/10.3390/f10110949.
ECSP, 2015. Observation and Investigation for Carbon Sequestration in Terrestrial Ecosystems by Technical Manual Writing Group of Ecosystem Carbon Sequestration Project. Beijing: Science Press.
Fang J Y, Chen A P, Peng C H et al., 2001. Changes in forest biomass carbon storage in China between 1949 and 1998. Science, 292(5525): 2320–2322. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1058629.
Fang J Y, Guo Z D, Hu H F et al., 2014. Forest biomass carbon sinks in East Asia, with special reference to the relative contributions of forest expansion and forest growth. Global Change Biology, 20(6): 2019–2030. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12512.
Foley J A, 1995. An equilibrium model of the terrestrial carbon budget. Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 47(3): 310–319. https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v47i3.16050.
Gao X J, Shi Y, Zhang D F et al., 2012. Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model. Chinese Science Bulletin, 57(10): 1188–1195. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4935-8.
Guariguata M R, Ostertag R, 2001. Neotropical secondary forest succession: Changes in structural and functional characteristics. Forest Ecology and Management, 148(1–3): 185–206. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-1127(00)00535-1.
He H L, Wang S Q, Zhang L et al., 2019. Altered trends in carbon uptake in China’s terrestrial ecosystems under the enhanced summer monsoon and warming hiatus. National Science Review, 6(3): 505–514. https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwz021.
He N P, Wen D, Zhu J X et al., 2017. Vegetation carbon sequestration in Chinese forests from 2010 to 2050. Global Change Biology, 23(4): 1575–1584. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13479.
Hu H F, Wang S P, Guo Z D et al., 2015. The stage-classified matrix models project a significant increase in biomass carbon stocks in China’s forests between 2005 and 2050. Scientific Reports, 5(1): 11203. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep11203.
Hyvönen R, Ågren G I, Linder S et al., 2007. The likely impact of elevated [CO2], nitrogen deposition, increased temperature and management on carbon sequestration in temperate and boreal forest ecosystems: A literature review. New Phytologist, 173(3): 463–480. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2007.01967.x.
Jin L, Yi Y Y, Xu J T, 2020. Forest carbon sequestration and China’s potential: The rise of a nature-based solution for climate change mitigation. China Economic Journal, 13(2): 200–222. https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2020.1754606.
Jörgensen K, Granath G, Lindahl B D et al., 2021. Forest management to increase carbon sequestration in boreal pinus sylvestris forests. Plant and Soil, 466(1/2): 165–178. https://doi.org/10.3390/f10110949.
Liu Y C, Yu G R, Wang Q F et al., 2014. Carbon carry capacity and carbon sequestration potential in China based on an integrated analysis of mature forest biomass. Science China Life Sciences, 57(12): 1218–1229. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11427-014-4776-1.
Luo W X, Kim H S, Zhao X H et al., 2020. New forest biomass carbon stock estimates in northeast Asia based on multisource data. Global Change Biology, 26(12): 7045–7066. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15376.
Ma X Z, Wang Z, 2011. Estimation of provincial forest carbon sink capacities in Chinese mainland. Chinese Science Bulletin, 56(9): 883–889. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4402-6.
Martin P, Jung M, Brearley F Q et al., 2016. Can we set a global threshold age to define mature forests?. PeerJ, 4(6): e1595. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1595.
National Forestry and Grassland Administration, 2019. The Main Results of the Ninth National Forest Resource Inventory (2014–2018). Beijing: China Forestry Publishing House. (in Chinese)
Pan Y D, Birdsey R A, Fang J Y et al., 2011. A large and persistent carbon sink in the world’s forests. Science, 333(6045): 988–993. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201609.
Peng Y Y, Thomas S C, Tian D, 2008. Forest management and soil respiration: Implications for carbon sequestration. Environmental Reviews, 16(NA): 93–111. https://doi.org/10.1139/A08-003.
Tang X L, Zhao X, Bai Y F et al., 2018. Carbon pools in China’s terrestrial ecosystems: New estimates based on an intensive field survey. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(16): 4021–4026. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1700291115.
Tong X W, Brandt M, Yue Y M et al., 2020. Forest management in southern China generates short term extensive carbon sequestration. Nature Communications, 11(1): 129. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-13798-8.
Wang J, Feng L, Palmer P I et al., 2020. Large Chinese land carbon sink estimated from atmospheric carbon dioxide data. Nature, 586(7831): 720–723. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2849-9.
Wen D, He N P, 2016. Forest carbon storage along the north-south transect of eastern China: Spatial patterns, allocation, and influencing factors. Ecological Indicators, 61: 960–967. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.10.054.
Wright J, Delamater D, Simha A et al., 2020. Changes in prescribed fire frequency alter ecosystem carbon dynamics. Ecosystems, 24(3): 640–651. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-020-00540-5.
Wu Mingyan, Dong Guang, Wang Yiji et al., 2020. Estimation of forest aboveground carbon storage in Sichuan Miyaluo Nature Reserve based on remote sensing. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 40(2): 621–628. https://doi.org/10.5846/stxb201807281610. (in Chinese)
Xu B, Guo Z D, Piao S L et al., 2010. Biomass carbon stocks in China’s forests between 2000 and 2050: A prediction based on forest biomass-age relationships. Science China Life Sciences, 53(7): 776–783. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11427-010-4030-4.
Xu L, Wen D, Zhu J X et al., 2017. Regional variation in carbon sequestration potential of forest ecosystems in China. Chinese Geographical Science, 27(3): 337–350. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-017-0870-1.
Xu L, Yu G R, He N P et al., 2018. Carbon storage in China’s terrestrial ecosystems: A synthesis. Scientific Reports, 8(1): 2806. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-20764-9.
Xu Li, Yu Guirui, He Nianpeng, 2018. Changes of soil organic carbon storage in Chinese terrestrial ecosystems from the 1980s to the 2010s. Acta Geographica Sinica, 73(11): 2150–2167. https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201811008. (in Chinese)
Xu L, Yu G R, He N P, 2019. Increased soil organic carbon storage in Chinese terrestrial ecosystems from the 1980s to the 2010s. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 29(1): 49–66. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-019-1583-4.
Yan P, Xiao C W, Xu L et al., 2020. Biomass energy in China’s terrestrial ecosystems: Insights into the nation’s sustainable energy supply. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 127: 109857. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep11203.
Yao Y T, Piao S L, Wang T, 2018. Future biomass carbon sequestration capacity of Chinese forests. Science Bulletin, 63(17): 1108–1117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2018.07.015.
Yu D P, Wang X Y, Yin Y et al., 2014. Estimates of forest biomass carbon storage in liaoning province of northeast China: A review and assessment. PloS One, 9(2): e89572. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0089572.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Foundation
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.42141004, No.32171544, No.31988102
Author
Cai Weixiang, Master, specialized in ecosystem carbon cycles and regulatory mechanisms. E-mail: caiwx@bjfu.edu.cn
This paper is initially published in Acta Geographica Sinica (Chinese edition), 2022, 77(7): 1808–1820.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Cai, W., Xu, L., Li, M. et al. Imbalance of inter-provincial forest carbon sequestration rate from 2010 to 2060 in China and its regulation strategy. J. Geogr. Sci. 33, 3–17 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-023-2071-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-023-2071-4