Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Spatiotemporal pattern of the dynamics in area, production, and yield of Aus rice in Bangladesh and its response to droughts from 1980 to 2018

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Journal of Geographical Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to natural disasters such as droughts in the world. The pre-monsoon Aus rice in Bangladesh depends on rainfall and is threatened by increasing droughts. However, limited information on the changes in Aus rice as well as droughts hamper our understanding of the country’s agricultural resilience and adaption to droughts. Here, we collected all the official statistical data of Aus rice at the district level from 1980 to 2018, and examined the interannual variations of area, yield, and production. The results showed both area and production of Aus rice decreased significantly (61.58×103 ha yr−1 and 17.21 ×103 M. tons yr−1, respectively), while yield increased significantly (0.03 M. tons ha−1 yr−1). We also found a significantly increasing trend of droughts in 88% of area based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) data, especially in those rainfed agricultural areas. Moreover, we found significant positive correlations between PDSI and Aus rice area (production) in 33 (25) out of 64 districts. There is hardly a relationship between PDSI and yield, likely due to the improved management and increasing irrigated areas. Implementing continuous drought monitoring, combined irrigation (surface and groundwater) systems, and conservation and precision agriculture are highly recommended in these drought-prone districts to ensure food security in Bangladesh.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abatzoglou J T, Dobrowski S Z, Parks S A et al., 2018. TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958–2015. Scientific Data, 5: 170191.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alley W M, 1984. The Palmer drought severity index: Limitations and assumptions. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 23(7): 1100–1109.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Amin M R, Zhang J, Yang M, 2015. Effects of climate change on the yield and cropping area of major food crops: A case of Bangladesh. Sustainability, 7(1): 898–915.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bluman A. 2018. Elementary Statistics: A Step by Step Approach. New York, USA: McGrawHill, 548–599.

    Google Scholar 

  • Choi M, Jacobs J M, Anderson M C et al., 2013. Evaluation of drought indices via remotely sensed data with hydrological variables. Journal of Hydrology, 476: 265–273.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De los Reyes B G, Myers S J, McGrath J M, 2003. Differential induction of glyoxylate cycle enzymes by stress as a marker for seedling vigor in sugar beet (Beta vulgaris). Molecular Genetics and Genomics, 269(5): 692–698.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Du L, Tian Q, Yu T et al., 2013. A comprehensive drought monitoring method integrating MODIS and TRMM data. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation Geoinformation, 23: 245–253.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FAO, 2019. World Food and Agriculture — Statistical Pocketbook 2019. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 248pp.

  • FAO, 2020. World Food and Agriculture — Statistical Yearbook 2020. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 350pp.

  • Gong Z, Zhao S, Gu J, 2016. Correlation analysis between vegetation coverage and climate drought conditions in North China during 2001–2013. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 27(2): 143–160.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo M, She D, Zhang L et al., 2021. Attribution of trends in meteorological drought during 1960–2016 over the Loess Plateau, China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 31(8): 1123–1139.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guttman N B, Wallis J R, Hosking J R M, 1992. Spatial comparability of the Palmer drought severity index. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 28(6): 1111–1119.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang S, Huang Q, Chang J et al., 2015. The response of agricultural drought to meteorological drought and the influencing factors: A case study in the Wei River Basin, China. Agricultural Water Management, 159: 45–54.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Islam M S, 2015. Agriculture. In: Islam S ed. Banglapedia: National Encyclopedia of Bangladesh, Dhaka. Bangladesh: Asiatic Society of Bangladesh.

    Google Scholar 

  • Islam M S, Hossain A B M Z, Miah M S et al., 2017. Evaluation of Aus rice (Oryza sativa L.) Production in less irrigated situation in northern region of Bangladesh. The Agriculturists, 15(1): 110–115.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Islam S, 2004. Banglapedia: National Encyclopedia of Bangladesh. Dhaka Asiatic Society of Bangladesh. 4810pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lobell D B, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J, 2011. Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science, 333(6042): 616–620.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J, 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 17: 179–183.

  • Mishra A K, Singh V P, 2010. A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 391(1): 202–216.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mortuza M R, Moges E, Demissie Y et al., 2019. Historical and future drought in Bangladesh using copula-based bivariate regional frequency analysis. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 135(3): 855–871.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murshed S B, Kaluarachchi J J, 2018. Scarcity of fresh water resources in the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh. Water Security, 4: 8–18.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palmer W C, 1965. Meteorological Drought. U.S. Department of Commerce Weather Bureau Research Paper, 45: 58.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pearson K, 1895. Notes on regression and inheritance in the case of two parents. In: London, England: The Royal Society of London, 240–242.

    Google Scholar 

  • Qin X, Cui X, Du W et al., 2015. Variations of the alpine precipitation from an ice core record of the Laohugou glacier basin during 1960–2006 in western Qilian Mountains, China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 25(2): 165–176.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rahman H M T, Mia M E, Ford J D et al., 2018. Livelihood exposure to climatic stresses in the north-eastern floodplains of Bangladesh. Land Use Policy, 79: 199–214.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rahman M, Rahaman M M, 2018. Impacts of Farakka barrage on hydrological flow of Ganges River and environment in Bangladesh. Sustainable Water Resources Management, 4(4): 767–780.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ruane A C, Major D C, Winston H Y et al., 2013. Multi-factor impact analysis of agricultural production in Bangladesh with climate change. Global Environmental Change, 23(1): 338–350.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scian B, Donnari M, 1997. Retrospective analysis of the Palmer Drought Severity Index in the semi-arid Pampas region, Argentina. International Journal of Climatology, 17(3): 313–322.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scian B V, 2004. Environmental variables for modeling wheat yields in the southwest Pampa region of Argentina. International Journal of Biometeorology, 48(4): 206–212.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Selvaraju R, Baas S. 2007. Climate variability and change: Adaptation to drought in Bangladesh: A resource book and training guide. Food & Agriculture Organization.

  • Shahid S, 2008. Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in the western part of Bangladesh. Hydrological Processes, 22(13): 2235–2247.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shahid S, 2010. Rainfall variability and the trends of wet and dry periods in Bangladesh. International Journal of Climatology, 30(15): 2299–2313.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shahid S, Behrawan H, 2008. Drought risk assessment in the western part of Bangladesh. Natural Hazards, 46(3): 391–413.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shelley I, Takahashi-Nosaka M, Kano-Nakata M et al., 2016. Rice cultivation in Bangladesh: Present scenario, problems, and prospects. Journal of International Cooperation for Agricultural Development, 14: 20–29.

    Google Scholar 

  • Svoboda M D, Fuchs B A, 2016. Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices. Lincoln, NE, USA: National Drought Mitigation Center.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tian L, Yuan S, Quiring S M, 2018. Evaluation of six indices for monitoring agricultural drought in the south-central United States. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 249: 107–119.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Uddin M N, Islam A K M S, Bala S K et al., 2019. Mapping of climate vulnerability of the coastal region of Bangladesh using principal component analysis. Applied Geography, 102: 7–57.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vicente-Serrano S M, Beguería S, López-Moreno J I, 2010. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of Climate, 23(7): 1696–1718.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang H, Vicente-Serrano S M, Tao F et al., 2016. Monitoring winter wheat drought threat in northern China using multiple climate-based drought indices and soil moisture during 2000–2013. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 228: 1–12.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang X, Chen X, Ge Q et al., 2006. Tolerance of photosynthesis to photoinhibition, high temperature and drought stress in flag leaves of wheat: A comparison between a hybridization line and its parents grown under field conditions. Plant Science, 171(3): 389–397.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhai J, Su B, Krysanova V et al., 2010. Spatial variation and trends in PDSI and SPI indices and their relation to streamflow in 10 large regions of China. Journal of Climate, 23(3): 649–663.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang J, Sun F, Liu W et al., 2019. Spatio-temporal patterns of drought evolution over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 29(6): 863–876.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgement

The first author expresses his gratitude to the Chinese Academy of Sciences-The World Academy of Sciences (CAS-TWAS) President’s PhD fellowship program for sponsoring during the PhD program, while he was on study leave from Pabna University of Science and Technology (PUST). He is also thankful to Dr. Yang Jilin, You Nanshan, Zhou Yan, Pei Yanyan, and other colleagues for their consistent support.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101, China

    Arifuzzaman Khondakar, Jinwei Dong, Zhichao Li, Xiangzheng Deng, Mrinal Singha & Shaoqiang Wang

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100094, China

    Arifuzzaman Khondakar, Jinwei Dong & Lin Zhen

  3. Department of Geography and Environment, Pabna University of Science and Technology, Pabna, 6600, Bangladesh

    Arifuzzaman Khondakar

  4. Deputy Director (Monitoring), Field Services Wing, Department of Agricultural Extension, Ministry of Agriculture, Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Md. Mizanur Rahman

  5. Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering, University of Minnesota-Twin Cities, Saint Paul, MN, USA

    Zhenong Jin

  6. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101, China

    Lin Zhen

  7. Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, 73019, USA

    Xiangming Xiao

Authors
  1. Arifuzzaman Khondakar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jinwei Dong
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Zhichao Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Xiangzheng Deng
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Mrinal Singha
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Md. Mizanur Rahman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Zhenong Jin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Shaoqiang Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. Lin Zhen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  10. Xiangming Xiao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Zhichao Li.

Additional information

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Foundation

National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41871349; The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.XDA19040301 Author: Khondakar Arifuzzaman (1984-), PhD Candidate, specialized in geographic information system.

Author

Khondakar Arifuzzaman (1984—), PhD Candidate, specialized in geographic information system.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Khondakar, A., Dong, J., Li, Z. et al. Spatiotemporal pattern of the dynamics in area, production, and yield of Aus rice in Bangladesh and its response to droughts from 1980 to 2018. J. Geogr. Sci. 32, 2069–2084 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-022-2037-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-022-2037-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation