New-type urbanization in China: Predicted trends and investment demand for 2015–2030

Journal of Geographical Sciences volume 27, pages943–966(2017)Cite this article

Abstract

The future development of new-type urbanization has drawn great attention from both the government and public alike. In this context, the present study had three related research aims. Firstly, it sought to predict the urbanization and population dynamics in China at both national and provincial levels for the period of 2015 to 2030. Secondly, on this basis, it sought to examine the spatial variation of urbanization given the predicted national urbanization rate of 70.12%. Thirdly, it sought to estimate and evaluate the national and provincial demands of investment in the development of new-type urbanization. The main conclusions from this study were as follows: (1) The population size and urbanization rate will reach 1.445 billion and 70.12%, respectively, from 2015 to 2030. (2) The demographic dividend will vanish when the population pressure reaches its maximum. During this period, there will be 70.16 million urban population born. The suburban population that becomes urbanized will be 316.7 million, and thus the net increase in urban population will reach 386 million. (3) Although the urbanization rate of every Chinese province will increase during 2015–2030, it will do so unequally, while differences in urbanization quality among provinces will also be substantial. In some provinces, moreover, the urbanization quality is not compatible with their eco-social development. (4) A total of 4,105,380 billion yuan is required to fund new-type urbanization and the investment demand for each province varies greatly; for example, Guangdong province requires the most funding, amounting to approximately 148 times that required by Tibet, the province in least need of funding. In the final part of this study, policy suggestions concerning the investment of the new-type urbanization are put forward and discussed.

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Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101, China

    Dongqi Sun, Yu Li & Haimeng Liu

  2. Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou, 730070, China

    Liang Zhou

  3. School of Resources & Environmental Engineering, Ludong University, Yantai 264025, Shandong, China

    Xiaoyan Shen, Zedong Wang & Xixi Wang

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  1. Dongqi Sun
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yu Li.

Additional information

National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41501137, No.41530634, No.41271186

Sun Dongqi (1985–), PhD, specialized in economic geography and regional development.

Li Yu (1973–), Associate Professor, specialized in urbanization and its eco-environment effects.

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Sun, D., Zhou, L., Li, Y. et al. New-type urbanization in China: Predicted trends and investment demand for 2015–2030. J. Geogr. Sci. 27, 943–966 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-017-1414-4

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Keywords

  • new-type urbanization
  • urbanization investment
  • 2015–2030
  • forecasting
  • China