Abstract
Dryness and wetness variations on different time scales in Shanghai were analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on monthly precipitation data for 1873–2005. The SPI on scales of 3, 6, 12 and 24 months has been calculated. The SPI on 3, 6, 12 and 24 months present 4 wet periods prevailed during 1873–1885, 1904–1923, 1938–1960 and 1983–2005, and 3 dry episodes during 1886–1903, 1924–1937 and 1961–1982. Significant periods of higher wavelet power in the SPI-24 months occurred on the time scales of 2–7-year band in around 1880–1890, 1910–1950 and 1970–1990, and at 8–15-year band in 1920–1960 and 1965–2000 respectively. Periodicities in the SOI and ENSO indices are similar to those in SPI-24 months with little difference, namely, in the SPI-24 months, there are significant periods at the 2–7- and 8–15-year bands during 1930–1940. The periodicity components in individual SPI-24 months, SOI and ENSO indices are more complicated, showing the wetness and dryness variability in Shanghai is controlled by more than one physical factors. The research results indicate that the Shanghai area has experienced dryness and wetness variability on different time scales during the past 133 years.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abramowitz M, Stegun A, 1965. Handbook of Mathematical Formulas, Graphs, and Mathematical Tables. New York: Dover Publications.
Allan R J, Nicholls N, Jones P D et al., 1991. A further extension of Tahiti-Darwin SOI, early ENSO events & Darwin pressure, under notes & correspondence. J. Climate, 4: 743–749.
Bonaccorso B, Bordii I, Cancellere A et al., 2003. Spatial Variability of Drought: An Analysis of the SPI in Sicily. Water Resources Management, 17: 273–296.
Bordi I, Fraedrich K, Jiang J et al., 2003. Dry and wet periods in eastern China watersheds: Patterns and predictability. Journal of Lake Sciences, 15(suppl.): 56–67. (in Chinese)
Bordi I, Fraedrich K, Jiang J M et al., 2004. Spatio-temporal variability of dry and wet periods in eastern China. Theor. Appl. Climatol., DOI 10.1007/s00704-004-0053-8.
Bureau of Meteorology, 1987. Department of Science, Northern Territory Region, Australia. Appendix A: Darwin monthly sea level pressure data, 6, 4.
Edwards D C, McKee T B, 1997. Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple timescales. Colorado State University: Fort Collins. Climatology Report, 97-2.
Farge M, 1992. Wavelet transform and their application to turbulence. Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech., 24: 395–457.
Gong Dongyi, Wang Shaowu, 1998. The variability of ENSO index since 1876. Climate Communications, 3: 11–17. (in Chinese)
Grinsted A, Moore J C, Jevrejeva S, 2004. Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 11: 561–566.
Guttman N B, 1998. Comparing the Palmer drought index and the Standardized Precipitation Index. J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 34: 113–121.
Guttman N B, 1999. Accepting the Standardized Precipitation Index: A calculation algorithm. J. Am. Water Resources Assoc., 35: 311–322.
Haan C T, 2002. Statistical Methods in Hydrology. 2nd edn. Blackwell Publishing.
Hayes M J, Svoboda M D, Wilhite D A et al., 1999. Monitoring the 1996 drought using the Standardized Precipitation Index. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 80(3): 429–438.
Heim J, 2000. Drought indices: A review. In: Wilhite D A (ed.). Droughts: A Global Assessment. Routledge, 159–167.
Kemal F S, Umran A K, Ayhan E et al., 2005. An analysis of spatial and temporal dimension of drought vulnerability in Turkey using the Standardized Precipitation Index. Natural Hazards, 35: 243–264.
Kendall M G, 1975. Rank Correlation Methods. London, UK: Griffin.
Lana X, Serra C, Burgueño A, 1998. Spatial and temporal characterization of annual extreme droughts in Catalonia (Northern Spain). Int. J. Clim., 18: 93–110.
Livada I, Assimakopoulos V D, 2007. Spatial and temporal analysis of drought in Greece using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Theor. Appl. Climatol., 89: 143–153.
Lloyd-Hughes B, Saunders M, 2002. A drought climatology for Europe. Int. J. Climatol., 22: 1571–1592.
Mann H B, 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13: 245–259.
McKee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J, 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time steps, Preprints, 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, January 17–22 Anaheim, California, 179–184.
Mishra A K, Singh V P, Desai V R, 2007. Drought characterization: A probabilistic approach. Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., DOI: 10.1007/s00477-007-0194-2.
Mishra A K, Desai V R, 2005a. Spatial and temporal drought analysis in the Kansabati River Basin, India. Int. J. River Basin Manage IAHR, 3(1): 31–41.
Mishra A K, Desai V R, 2005b. Drought forecasting using stochastic models. Stochast. Environ. Res. Risk. Assess., 19: 326–339
Palmer W C, 1965. Meteorological drought. Research Paper No.45. US Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau, Washington, DC.
Su M F, Wang H J, 2007. Relationship and its instability of ENSO: Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells. Science in China (Series D), 50(1): 145–152.
Thom H C S, 1958. A note on the gamma distribution. Monthly Weather Rev., 86: 117–122.
Torrence C, Compo G P, 1998. A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 79: 61–78.
Torrence C, Webster P J, 1999. Interdecadal changes in the ENSO-Monsoon system. J. Climate, 12: 2679–2690.
Trenberth K E, Overpeck J T, Solomon S, 2004. Exploring drought and its implications for the future. Eos. Trans. AGU., 85(3): 27.
Wang S W, 1962. Oscillation analysis of Shanghai climatic changes. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 32(4): 322–336.
Wang S W, Zhao Z C, 1981. Drought and floods in China, 1470–1979. In: Wigley T M L, Ingrasham M J, Farmer G (eds). Climate and History. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 271–288.
Xu Jialiang, 1993. Some features of temperature variations in Shanghai for the 118 years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 48(2): 26–32. (in Chinese)
Yue S, Pilon P, Cavadias G, 2002. Power of the Mann-Kendall test and the Spearman’s rho test for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological time series. Journal of Hydrology, 259: 254–271.
Yue S, Wang C Y, 2002. Applicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test. Water Resour. Res., 38(6): 1068.
Zar J H, 1999. Biostatistical Analysis. Old Tappan, N.J.: Prentice-Hall.
Zhang Qiang, Chen Jiaqi, Zhang Zengxin, 2005. Observed climatic changes in Shanghai during 1873–2002. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 15(2): 217–222.
Zhang Q, Liu C L, Xu C Y et al., 2006. Observed trends of annual maximum water level and streamflow during past 130 years in the Yangtze River Basin, China. Journal of Hydrology, 324: 255–265.
Zhou Liying, Yang Kai, 2001. Variation of precipitation in Shanghai during the last one hundred years and precipitation differences between city and suburb. Acta Geographica Sinica, 56(4): 467–476. (in Chinese)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Foundation: Frontier Project of Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, No.CXNIGLAS200814; National Forestry Science and Technique Foundation during the 11th Five-Year Plan Period, No.2006BAD03A1601; Project of Huaihe River Basin, No.HRM200708; National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, No.CCSF2007-35
Author: Zhang Zengxin (1977–), Ph.D, specialized in climatic changes.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zhang, Z., Zhang, Q., Zhang, J. et al. Observed dryness and wetness variability in Shanghai during 1873–2005. J. Geogr. Sci. 19, 143–152 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-009-0143-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-009-0143-8