Abstract
In Northeast China during the winter, severe snowstorms can occur resulting in both societal and economic damage. In this paper, we explore an effective technique for the seasonal prediction of heavy snow activity, where previous synoptic studies have failed. We employ a year-to-year increment approach and ultimately identify four predictors, x1 to x4. x1 is the area-averaged soil moisture over the northern part of Northeast China in the preceding month of September and represents the role of land processes. x2 represents the role of sea-air interactions in winter, x3 the preceding summer Mascarene High related to the winter SST over the tropical western Pacific, and x4 is the low-level the thermal condition over Northeast China from the previous year that oppose current year. Cross-validation tests for both 1963–2011 and independent hindcasts between 1983–2010 are performed to validate the prediction ability of our technique. The cross validation test results for 1963–2011 reveal a high correlation coefficient of 0.86 (0.77) between the predicted and observed year-to-year increment of the number of snow days. The model also predicts well the independent hindcast for the years 1983–2011. Therefore, this study provides an effective climate prediction model for Northeast China’s heavy snow activities and thus requires preliminary application in operational settings.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Sun J Q, Wang H J, Yuan W A. preliminary investigation on causes of the catastrophic snowstorm in March, 2007 in the northeastern parts of China (in Chinese). Acta Meteorol Sin, 2009, 67: 469–477
Wang W H, Xu X D. The heavy snow process in district xilingele and the analysis of “77.10” snowstorm (in Chinese). Acta Meteorol Sin, 1979, 37: 80–86
Wang J Z, Ding Y H. Research of moist symmetric instability in a strong snowfall in North China (in Chinese). Acta Meteorol Sin, 1995, 53: 451–460
Wang H J, Yu E T, Yang S. An exceptionally heavy snowfall in Northeast China: Large-scale circulation anomalies and hindcast of the NCAR WRF model. Meteorol Atmos Phys, 2011, 113: 11–25
Gao Y Z, Zhou H L, Yun C Q, et al. Weather analysis and prediction technology of snowstorm in Heilongjiang Province (in Chinese). J Nat Disasters, 2007, 16: 25–30
Sun J Q, Wang H J, Yuan W, et al. Spatial-temporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possible change. J Geophys Res, 2010, 115: D16110
Liu Y L, Yu H M, Reng Y, et al. Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the snow storms in Heilongjiang Province during 1961–2006 (in Chinese). Clim Environ Res, 2010, 15: 470–478
Gao X J, Zhao Z C, Ding Y H, et al. Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model. Adv Atmos Sci, 2001, 18: 1224–1230
Fan K, Wang H J, Choi Y J. A physically-based statistical forecast model for the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley summer rainfall. Chin Sci Bull, 2008, 53: 602–609
Fan K, Wang H J. Seasonal prediction of summer temperature over Northeast China using a year-to-year incremental approach. Acta Meteorol Sin, 2010, 24: 269–275
Wu B Y, Huang R H. Effects of the extremes in the North Atlantic Oscillation on East Asia winter monsoon (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 1999, 23: 642–651
Fan K, Wang H J. Antarctic oscillation and the dust weather frequency in North China. Geophys Res Lett, 2004, 31: L10201
Fan K, Wang H J. Interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation and its influence on East Asian climate during winter and spring. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 2006, 49: 554–560
Wang W Q. Numerical experiments of the soil temperature and moisture anomalies effects on the short term climate (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 1991, 15: 56–63
Ma Z G, Wei H L, Fu C B. Relationship between regional soil moisture variation and climatic variability over east China (in Chinese). Acta Meteorol Sin, 2000, 58: 278–286
Guo W D, Ma Z G, Wang H J. Soil moisture-An important factor of seasonal precipitation prediction and its application (in Chinese). Clim Environ Res, 2007, 12: 21–28
Xue F, Wang H J, He J H. Interannual variability of Mascarene high and Australian high and their influences on East Asian summer monsoon. J Meteorol Soc Jpn, 2004, 82: 1173–1186
Sun J Q, Wang H J, Yuan W. Linkage of the Boreal Spring Antarctic Oscillation to the West African Summer Monsoon. J Meteorol Soc Jpn, 2010, 88: 15–28
Zhou B T. Linkage between winter sea surface temperature east of Australia and summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and a possible physical mechanism. Chin Sci Bull, 2011, 56: 1821–1827
Gao H, Xue F, Wang H J. Influence of interannual variability of Antarctic oscillation on Mei-yu along the Yangtze and Huaihe River valley and its importance to prediction. Chin Sci Bull, 2003, 48: 61–67
Wang H J, Fan K. Central-north China precipitation as reconstructed from the Qing dynasty: Signal of the Antarctic Atmospheric Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett, 2005, 32: L24705
Zhao Y P, McBean G A. Air-sea interaction between the kuroshio region marine heating anomaly and northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation (in Chinese). Oceanol Limnol Sin, 1995, 26: 386–387
Chen J, Sun S Q. Eastern Asian Winter Monsoon Anomaly and Variation of Global Circulation Part II: Influence on SST by Winter Monsoon (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 1999, 23: 286–295
Qing Z K, Sun Z B. Numerical simulation of the influence of successively anomalous winter wind field on ocean currents around the Kuroshio area (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 2006, 30: 257–267
Dong M, Chen L X, Liao H. Numerical simulation of the influence of SST anomaly over western Pacific warm pool on winter circulations (in Chinese). Acta Oceanol Sin, 1994, 16: 39–45
Wang H J, Sun J Q, Chen H P, et al. Extreme Climate in China: Facts, Simulation and Projection. Meteorol Zeitschrift, 2012, doi: 10.1127/0941-2948/2012/0330
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
Rights and permissions
This article is published under an open access license. Please check the 'Copyright Information' section either on this page or in the PDF for details of this license and what re-use is permitted. If your intended use exceeds what is permitted by the license or if you are unable to locate the licence and re-use information, please contact the Rights and Permissions team.
About this article
Cite this article
Fan, K., Tian, B. Prediction of wintertime heavy snow activity in Northeast China. Chin. Sci. Bull. 58, 1420–1426 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-012-5502-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-012-5502-7