Abstract
Frequent winter snowstorms have recently caused large economic losses and attracted wide attention. These snowstorms have raised an important scientific question. Under scenarios of future global warming, will winter precipitation in China increase significantly and produce more snow in the north? Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP 3) model projections under the Special Report on Emissions Scenario A1B scenario, we generated a possible future Arctic condition, the summer (September) “ice-free Arctic” condition. We then used corresponding monthly sea surface temperature (SST) values and a set of CO2 concentrations to drive an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), for simulating East Asian climate change. The experimental results show that during the boreal winter (December-January-February; DJF), global surface air temperature would increase significantly under this scenario, producing substantial warming in Arctic regions and at high latitudes in Asia and North America. The Siberian High, Aleutian Low and East Asian winter monsoon would all weaken. However, because of increased transport of water vapor to China from the north, winter precipitation would increase from south to north. In addition, the significant increase in winter temperature might cause fewer cold surges.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
![](https://media.springernature.com/w215h120/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3499-3/MediaObjects/382_2016_3499_Fig1_HTML.gif)
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Huang R H, Chen J L, Zhou L T, et al. Studies on the relationship between the severe climate disasters in China and the East Asia climate system (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 2003, 27: 770–787
Qin D H, Liu S Y, Li P J. Snow cover distribution, variability, and response to climate change in western China. J Clim, 2006, 19: 1820–1833
Stroeve J, Serreze M, Drobot S, et al. Arctic sea ice extent plummets in 2007. Eos, 2008, 89: 13–14
Comiso J, Parkinson C, Gersten R, et al. Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover. Geophys Res Lett, 2008, 35: L01703
IPCC. The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007
Wang M, Overland J. A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years. Geophys Res Lett, 2009, 36: L07502
Kurtz N, Markus T, Farrell S, et al. Observations of recent Arctic sea ice volume loss and its impact on ocean-atmosphere energy exchange and ice production. J Geophys Res, 2011, 116: C04015
Overland J, Wang M. Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 2010, 62: 1–9
Fang Z F. Interaction between subtropical high and polar ice in Northern Hemisphere (in Chinese). Chin Sci Bull (Chinese Ver), 1986, 31: 286–289
Wu B Y, Huang R H, Gao D Y. Arctic sea ice bordering on the North Atlantic and inter-annual climate variations. Chin Sci Bull, 2001, 46: 162–165
Zhou B T, Wang H J. Relationship between Hadley circulation and sea ice extent in the Bering Sea. Chin Sci Bull, 2007, 53: 444–449
Wu B Y, Bian L G, Zhang R H. Effects of the winter AO and the Arctic sea ice variations on climate variation over East Asia (in Chinese). Chin J Polar Res, 2004, 16: 211–220
Wu B Y, Huang R H. The impact of variation of sea-ice extent in the Kara Sea and the Barent Seas in winter on the winter monsoon over East Asia (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 1999, 23: 267–275
Sewall J, Sloan L. Disappearing Arctic sea ice reduces available water in the American west. Geophys Res Lett, 2004, 31: L06209
Manak D, Mysak L. On the relationship between Arctic sea-ice anomalies and fluctuations in northern Canadian air temperature and river discharge. Atmos-Ocean, 1989, 27: 682–691
Zeng Q C, Yuan C G, Zhang X H, et al. A global grid-point general circulation model. J Meteor Soc Jpn, 1987, (Special volume): 421–430
Zhang X H. Dynamical framework of IAP nine-level atmospheric general circulation model. Adv Atmos Sci, 1990, 7: 66–77
Liang X Z. Description of a nine-level grid point atmospheric general circulation model. Adv Atmos Sci, 1996, 13: 269–298
Zhu Y L, Wang H J, Zhou W, et al. Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation. Clim Dyn, 2011, 36: 1463–1473
Jiang D B, Wang H J, Drange H, et al. Last Glacial Maximum over China: Sensitivities of climate to paleovegetation and Tibetan ice sheet. J Geophys Res, 2003, 108: 4102
Wang H J, Bi X Q. The east asian monsoon simulation with IAP AGCMs—A composite study. Adv Atmos Sci, 1996, 13: 260–264
Ma J H, Wang H J, Zhang Y. Simulation study of the East Asian summer climate change in the ‘free Arctic’ condition (in Chinese). Adv Clim Change Res, 2011, 7: 178–183
Li Q P, Ding Y H. Multi-year simulations of East Asian winter monsoon by using regional climate model (in Chinese). J Appl Meteor Sci, 2005, 16: 30–40
Ding Y H. A statistical study of winter monsoons in East Asia (in Chinese). J Trop Meteor, 1990, 6: 119–128
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
Rights and permissions
This article is published under an open access license. Please check the 'Copyright Information' section either on this page or in the PDF for details of this license and what re-use is permitted. If your intended use exceeds what is permitted by the license or if you are unable to locate the licence and re-use information, please contact the Rights and Permissions team.
About this article
Cite this article
Ma, J., Wang, H. & Zhang, Y. Will boreal winter precipitation over China increase in the future? An AGCM simulation under summer “ice-free Arctic” conditions. Chin. Sci. Bull. 57, 921–926 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4925-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4925-x