Abstract
Climate prediction using a coupled model with a one-tier scheme is an important research direction. In this study, based on 1974–2001 hindcasts obtained from the “Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction” (DEMETER) project, the capability of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to predict six climatic factors that have a close relationship with the western North Pacific typhoon activity is investigated over summer (June–October). Results indicate that all six DEMETER CGCMs well predict the six factors. Using the statistical relationship between these six factors and the typhoon frequency, the ability of the CGCMs to predict typhoon frequency is further explored. It is found that the six CGCMs also well predict the variability in typhoon frequency. Comparison analysis shows that the prediction skill of the statistical downscaling method is much better than that of the raw CGCMs. In addition, the six-model ensemble has the best prediction performance. This study suggests that combining a multi-model ensemble and statistical downscaling greatly improves the CGCM prediction skill, and will be an important research direction for typhoon prediction.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Gray W M. Global view of the origin of topical disturbance and storms. Mon Weather Rev, 1968, 96: 669–700
Ding Y H, Fan H J, Xue Q F, et al. Preliminary study on the multi-typhoon development in the tropical convergence zone (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 1977, 1: 89–98
Chen L S, Ding Y H. Introduction to the Western Pacific Typhoons (in Chinese). Beijing: Science Press, 1979. 491
Ding Y H, Wright E R. The large scale circulation condition for the western Pacific typhoon genesis (in Chinese). Acta Oceanol Sin, 1983, 5: 561–574
Wang H J, Lang X M, Fan K, et al. Real-time climate prediction experiment for the typhoon frequency in the western North Pacific for 2006 (in Chinese). Clim Environ Res, 2006, 11: 133–137
Yuan J N, Wang D X, Wang Q L, et al. A 28-year climatological analysis of size parameters for northwestern Pacific tropical cyclones. Adv Atmos Sci, 2007, 24: 24–34
Lang X M, Wang H J. Can the climate background of western North Pacific typhoon activity be predicted by climate model? Chinese Sci Bull, 2008, 53: 2392–2399
Chen G H, Huang R H. Influence of monsoon over the warm pool on interannual variation on tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Adv Atmos Sci, 2008, 25: 319–328
Chan J C L. Tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Mon Weather Rev, 1985, 113: 599–606
Li C Y. El Niño and the western Pacific typhoon activity (in Chinese). Chinese Sci Bull, 1985, 30: 1087–1089
Lander M A. An exploratory analysis of the relationship between tropical storm formation in the western North Pacific and ENSO. Mon Weather Rev, 1994, 122: 636–651
He M, Song W L, Chen X F. Typhoon activity in the northwest Pacific in relation to El Niño/La Niña events (in Chinese). J Trop Meteor, 1999, 15: 17–25
Wang B, Chan J C L. How does ENSO regulate tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific? J Clim, 2002, 15: 1643–1658
Camargo S J, Sobel A H. Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. J Clim, 2005, 18: 2996–3006
Gray W M. Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part I: El Niño and 30 hPa quasi-biennial oscillation influences. Mon Weather Rev, 1984, 112: 1649–1668
Chan J C L. Tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific in relation to the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation. Mon Weather Rev, 1995, 123: 2567–2571
Liebmann B, Hendon H H, Glick J D. The relationship between tropical cyclones of the western Pacific and Indian Oceans and the Madden-Julian oscillation. J Meteorol Soc Jpn, 1994, 72: 401–411
Zhu C W, Nakazawa T, Li J P. Modulation of tropical depression/cyclone over the Indian-western Pacific oceans by Madden-Julian oscillation (in Chinese). Acta Meteorol Sin, 2004, 62: 42–51
Wang H J, Fan K. Relationship between the Antarctic oscillation and the western North Pacific typhoon frequency. Chinese Sci Bull, 2007, 52: 561–565
Ho C H, Kim J H, Kim H S, et al. Possible influence of the Antarctic Oscillation on tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific. J Geophys Res, 2005, 110: D19104, doi:10.1029/2005JD005766
Wang H J, Sun J Q, Fan K. Relationship between the North Pacific oscillation and the typhoon/hurricane frequencies. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 2007, 50: 1409–1416
Fan K. North Pacific sea ice cover, a predictor for the western North Pacific typhoon frequency? Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 2007, 50: 1251–1257
Zhou B T, Cui X. Hadley circulation signal in the tropical cyclone frequency over the erstern North Pacific. J Geophys Res, 2008, 113: D16107, doi:10.1029/2007JD009156
Zhou B T, Cui X, Zhao P. Relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 2008, 51: 380–385
Zou Y, Zhao P. Relation of summer Asian-Pacific oscillation to tropical cyclone activities over the coastal waters of China. Acta Meteorol Sin, 67: 708–715
Wang H J, Fan K, Sun J Q, et al. Some advances in the researches of the western North Pacific typhoon climate variability and prediction (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 2007, 31: 1076–1081
Chan J C L, Shi J E, Lam C M. Seasonal forecasting of t ropical cyclone activity over western North Pacific and the South China Sea. Wea ther Forecast, 1998, 13: 997–1003
Chan J C L, Shi J E, Liu K S. Improvements in the seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Weather Forecast, 2001, 16: 491–498
Fan K. New predictors and a new prediction model for the typhoon frequency over western North Pacific. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 2007, 50: 1417–1423
Fan K, Wang H J. A new approach to forecasting typhoon frequency over the western North Pacific. Weather Forecast, 2009, 24: 974–986
Wang H J. The instability of the East Asian summer monsoon ENSO relations. Adv Atmos Sci, 2002, 19: 1–11
Sun J Q, Wang H J, Yuan W. Decadal variations of the relationship between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and middle East Asian air temperature. J Geophys Res, 2008, 113: D15107, doi: 10.1029/2007JD009626
Sun J Q, Ahn B J. A GCM-Based Forecasting Model for the Landfall of Tropical Cyclones in China. Adv Atmos Sci, 2011, doi: 10. 1007/s00376-011-0122-8
Camargo S J, Barnston A G, Klotzbach P J, et al. Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts. WMO Bull, 2007, 56: 297–309
Camargo S J, Zebiak S E. Improving the detection and tracking of tropical cyclones in atmospheric general circulation models. Weather Forecast, 2002, 17: 1152–1162
Vitart F. Seasonal forecasting of tropical storm frequency using a multi-model ensemble. Quart J Royal Meteorol Soc, 2006, 132: 647–666
Palmer T N, Alessandri A, Andersen U, et al. Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER). Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 2004, 85: 853–872
Zou Y, Zhao P, Qiao L. A method of estimating typhoon central wind based on sea level pressure of the Typhoon Yearbook of China. J Trop Meteorol, 2009, 16: 20–26
Zou Y, Zhao P. Comparison of some tropical cyclone datasets and correction of yearbook data. J Trop Meteorol, 2010, 16: 109–114
Uppala S M, Kallberg P W, Simmons A J, et al. The ERA-40 Reanalysis. Quart J Royal Meteorol Soc, 2005, 131: 2961–3012
Wang H J, Fan K. A new scheme for improving the seasonal prediction of summer precipitation anomalies. Weather Forecast, 2009, 24: 548–554
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
Rights and permissions
This article is published under an open access license. Please check the 'Copyright Information' section either on this page or in the PDF for details of this license and what re-use is permitted. If your intended use exceeds what is permitted by the license or if you are unable to locate the licence and re-use information, please contact the Rights and Permissions team.
About this article
Cite this article
Sun, J., Chen, H. Predictability of western North Pacific typhoon activity and its factors using DEMETER coupled models. Chin. Sci. Bull. 56, 3474–3479 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4640-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4640-7