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Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods

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  • Atmospheric Science
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  • Published: 17 March 2011
  • Volume 56, pages 729–737, (2011)
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Chinese Science Bulletin
Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods
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  • FengMei Yao1,
  • PengCheng Qin1,
  • JiaHua Zhang2,3,4,
  • ErDa Lin5 &
  • …
  • Vijendra Boken6 

  • 2384 Accesses

  • 45 Citations

  • 6 Altmetric

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Abstract

Model simulation is an important way to study the effects of climate change on agriculture. Such assessment is subject to a range of uncertainties because of either incomplete knowledge or model technical uncertainties, impeding effective decision-making to climate change. On the basis of uncertainties in the impact assessment at different levels, this article systematically summarizes the sources and propagation of uncertainty in the assessment of the effect of climate change on agriculture in terms of the climate projection, the assessment process, and the crop models linking to climate models. Meanwhile, techniques and methods focusing on different levels and sources of uncertainty and uncertainty propagation are introduced, and shortcomings and insufficiencies in uncertainty processing are pointed out. Finally, in terms of how to accurately assess the effect of climate change on agriculture, improvements to further decrease potential uncertainty are suggested.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Earth Science, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    FengMei Yao & PengCheng Qin

  2. Center for Earth Observation and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100094, China

    JiaHua Zhang

  3. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China

    JiaHua Zhang

  4. School of Geoscience, Yangtze University, Jingzhou, 434025, China

    JiaHua Zhang

  5. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China

    ErDa Lin

  6. Department of Geography and Earth Science, University of Nebraska at Kearney, Kearney, NE, 68849, USA

    Vijendra Boken

Authors
  1. FengMei Yao
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  2. PengCheng Qin
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  3. JiaHua Zhang
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to JiaHua Zhang.

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Yao, F., Qin, P., Zhang, J. et al. Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods. Chin. Sci. Bull. 56, 729–737 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4374-6

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  • Received: 13 November 2010

  • Accepted: 20 December 2010

  • Published: 17 March 2011

  • Issue Date: March 2011

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4374-6

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Keywords

  • climate change
  • agriculture
  • impact assessment
  • uncertainty
  • model simulation
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