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Estimating possible impact of human activity on the warm season temperature in Beijing since the industrial era

  • Letters
  • Geology
  • Published:
Chinese Science Bulletin

Abstract

Global surface temperature shows an increasing trend over the past 100 years. Anthropogenic and natural factors have been invoked to explain this warming, but their relative contribution and the spatial variability remain controversial. Based on a 2650-year temperature record from a stalagmite near Beijing, we explore the possible impacts of human activity on the warm season temperature in Beijing since the industrial era using the method of singular spectrum analysis (SSA). The results suggest that the warm season temperature in Beijing under the natural forcing should have an overall decreasing trend for the past 130 years (1870 to 2000 AD) with an amplitude of 0.45±0.84°C, while the instrumental record and stalagmite data show an increase of 1.08°C. These imply that human activity would have caused an increase in the warm season temperature of Beijing for about 1.53±0.84°C compared to its natural trends, from 1870 AD to 2000 AD. Our results also suggest that anthropogenic forcing began to significantly influence the temperature since 1870 AD, and the effect further intensified since 1915 AD.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Li Qin & Xin Zhou

  2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Li Qin & Xin Zhou

Authors
  1. Li Qin
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  2. Xin Zhou
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Li Qin.

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Qin, L., Zhou, X. Estimating possible impact of human activity on the warm season temperature in Beijing since the industrial era. Chin. Sci. Bull. 55, 1590–1593 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-010-3049-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-010-3049-z

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