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ENSO frequency change in coupled climate models as response to the increasing CO2 concentration

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  • Atmospheric Science
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Chinese Science Bulletin

Abstract

The response of ENSO frequency to the increasing CO2 concentration and associated mechanism are examined with outputs of four coupled climate models (GFDL/CM2.0, CNRM/CM3, IPSL/CM4 and INM/CM3.0) submitted to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). Results reveal a significant change of ENSO frequency as response to the increasing CO2 concentration. However, such a change exhibits an evident model dependence. The ENSO frequency tends to increase in GFDL/CM2.0 and CNRM/CM3 models and decreases in IPSL/CM4 and INM/CM3.0 models. The model dependence is found to be determined by how the model climatological background state of the tropical Pacific responds to the increasing CO2 concentration. It is demonstrated that the change of zonally- and vertically-averaged climatological background upper ocean temperature gradient between the equator and off-equator is crucially responsible for the ENSO frequency change. As response to the increasing CO2 concentration, the climatological background temperature gradient is increased in GFDL/CM2.0 and CNRM/CM3 models and decreased in IPSL/CM4 and INM/CM3.0 models. In terms of the recharge-discharge oscillator theory for ENSO, the increased (decreased) climatological background temperature gradient between the equator and off-equator induces a faster (slower) exchange of oceanic heat content between the equator and off-equator, thus giving rise to a shorter (longer) ENSO timescale and a higher (lower) ENSO frequency.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210093, China

    Lin Deng & XiuQun Yang

  2. Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, 211101, China

    Qian Xie

Authors
  1. Lin Deng
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  2. XiuQun Yang
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  3. Qian Xie
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Correspondence to XiuQun Yang.

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Deng, L., Yang, X. & Xie, Q. ENSO frequency change in coupled climate models as response to the increasing CO2 concentration. Chin. Sci. Bull. 55, 744–751 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-009-0491-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-009-0491-x

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