An evacuation risk assessment model for emergency traffic with consideration of urban hazard installations

Abstract

The Critical Cluster Model (CCM) is an optimization model assessing the evacuation risk on the scale of neighborhoods. The static evacuation risk in the CCM is measured by Bulk Lane Demand (BLD) — an index that solely depends on network structure and population of evacuees. The advantage of the CCM is having less input parameters and with relatively smaller computational cost. Moreover, the process of risk assessment by the CCM is a global optimization process. For this reason, the CCM provides a relatively ideal solution for planning emergency traffic evacuation in open spaces. Considering that hazard installations in urban areas are becoming an increasing threat to urban safety, in the paper we proposed an evacuation risk assessment model with consideration of such installations. This model was developed on the basis of the CCM by introducing two important factors: the accident risk impact factor which was negatively correlated with distance, representing the impact of hazard installation; the evacuation direction which was under the consideration of evacuating away from the hazard installation, providing feasible evacuation routes. Finally, an application of the new model was presented for Beijing, China with the support of Geographical Information System (GIS).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

References

  1. 1

    Zeng X Y, Li L P, Deng S G. Research on urban public security and disaster reduction countermeasures. Work Safety & Supervision, 2006: 44–46

  2. 2

    Li T. Risk management of urban public security. China Saf Sci J, 2008, 18: 65–72

    Google Scholar 

  3. 3

    Kisko T M, Francis R L. EVACNET+: A computer program to determine optimal evacuation plans. Fire Saf J, 1985, 9: 211–220

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. 4

    Ketchell N, Cole S S, Webber D M. The EGRESS code for human movement and behavior in emergency evacuation. In: Smith R A, Dickie J F, eds. Engineering for Crowd Safety. New York: Elsevier, 1993. 361–370

    Google Scholar 

  5. 5

    Thompson P, Marchant E. A computer model for the evacuation of large building populations. Fire Saf J, 1995, 24: 131–148

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. 6

    Owen M, Galea E R, Lawrence P J. The Exodus evacuation model applied to building evacuation scenarios. J Fire Prot Eng, 1996, 8: 65–86

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. 7

    Fang Z, Lu S M. A spatial grid model for emergency evacuation from building. China Saf Sci J, 2001, 11: 10–13

    Google Scholar 

  8. 8

    Yang L Z, Fang W F, Huang R, et al. Study on cellular automaton model of occupant evacuation in fire disaster. Chinese Sci Bull, 2002, 47: 1143–1147

    Google Scholar 

  9. 9

    Cui X H, Li Q, Chen J, et al. Study on MA-based model of occupant evacuation in public facility. J Syst Simu, 2008, 20: 1006–1023

    Google Scholar 

  10. 10

    Fulkerson D R, Weinberger D B. Blocking pairs of polyhedra arising from network flows. J Comb Theory B, 1975, 18: 265–283

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. 11

    Newton C, Mussa R N, Sadalla E K, et al. Evaluation of all alternative traffic light change anticipation system. Accident Anal Prev, 1997, 29: 201–209

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. 12

    Yamada T. A network flow approach to a city emergency evacuation planning. Int J Syst Sci, 1996, 27: 931–936

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. 13

    Cova T J, Johnson J P. A network flow model for lane-based evacuation routing. Trans Res Pt A, 2003, 37: 579–604

    Google Scholar 

  14. 14

    Cova T J, Church R L. Modelling community evacuation vulnerability using GIS. Int J Geogr Inf Sci, 1997, 11: 763–784

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. 15

    Church R L, Cova T J. Mapping evacuation risk on transportation networks using a spatial optimization model. Trans Res Pt C, 2000, 8: 321–336

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. 16

    Myung Y S, Kim H. A cutting plane algorithm for computing k-edge survivability of a network. Eur J Oper Res, 2004, 156: 579–589

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. 17

    Wei Y, Linet Z. A dynamic logistics coordination model for evacuation and support in disaster response activities. Eur J Oper Res, 2007, 179: 1177–1193

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. 18

    Hamza-Lup G L, Hua K A, Peng R. Leveraging e-transportation in real-time traffic evacuation management. Elec Commer Res Appl, 2007, 6: 413–424

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. 19

    Wu Z Z. Study on methods and contents for land use safety planning. J Safety Envir, 2004, 4: 86–90

    Google Scholar 

  20. 20

    Weng T, Zhu J P, Ma M G, et al. A study on regional assessment of risk of urban major hazard. Engi Sci, 2006, 8: 80–84

    Google Scholar 

  21. 21

    Wu Z Z, Duo Y Q, Wei L J, et al. Quantitative area risk assessment method and its application in land use safety planning for major hazard installations. Engineering Science, 2006, 8: 46–49

    Google Scholar 

  22. 22

    Turner J R. The hand book of project-based management. Maiden Bead: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1992

    Google Scholar 

  23. 23

    Sorensen J H, Vogt B M, Mileti D S. Evacuation: an assessment of planning and research. Washington DC: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1987

    Google Scholar 

  24. 24

    Geng S Y, Qu W L, Zhang L A. Discrete mathematics, 3rd ed. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2004

    Google Scholar 

  25. 25

    Zhuo L, Chen J, Shi P J, et al. Modeling population density of China in 1998 based on DMSP/OLS nighttime light image. Acta Geogr Sinica, 2005, 60: 266–276

    Google Scholar 

  26. 26

    Flowerdew R, Green M. Developments in the area interpolation methods and GIS. Ann Reg Sci, 1992, 26: 67–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jin Chen.

About this article

Cite this article

Li, Q., Chen, X., Chen, J. et al. An evacuation risk assessment model for emergency traffic with consideration of urban hazard installations. Chin. Sci. Bull. 55, 1000–1006 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-009-0277-1

Download citation

Keywords

  • urban public safety
  • Critical Cluster Model (CCM)
  • hazard installation
  • traffic evacuation risk
  • Geographical Information System (GIS)