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A systems dynamic model of a coal-based city with multiple adaptive scenarios: A case study of Ordos, China

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Abstract

Cities based on coal resources have increasingly important social and economic roles in China. Their strategies for sustainable development, however, urgently need to be improved, which represents a huge challenge. Most observers believe that the continued progress of these cities relies on the optimization of scientific adaptive management in which social, economic, and ecological factors are incorporated. A systems perspective that combines policies, management priorities, and long-term policy impacts needs to be applied. To date, however, such an approach has not been adopted, which means it is difficult to implement adaptive management at the regional scale. In this study, we used various situations to develop a multiple adaptive scenario system dynamics model. We then simulated a range of policy scenarios, with Ordos in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as a case study. Simulation results showed that the current strategy is not sustainable and predicted that the system would exceed the environmental capacity, with risks of resource exhaustion and urban decline in 2025–2035. Five critical policy variables, including the urban population carrying capacity, rates of water consumption and water recycling, and expansion of urban land cover, were identified during sensitivity analysis. We developed and compared six socio-economic scenarios. The urban area, represented by the urban population density, seemed to transition through five different stages, namely natural growth, rapid growth, stable oscillation, fading, and rebalancing. Our scenarios suggested that different policies had different roles through each stage. The water use efficiency management policy had a comprehensive far-reaching influence on the system behavior; land urbanization management functions dominated at the start, and population capacity management was a major control in the mid-term. Our results showed that the water recycling policy and the urban population carrying capacity were extremely important, and both should be reinforced and evaluated by the local governments.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41590845 & 41601096) and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No. 2015M581160).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Arts and Science of Beijing Union University, Beijing, 100191, China

    XiaoQian Liu

  2. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    XiaoQian Liu, Tao Pei, ChengHu Zhou, YunYan Du, Ting Ma, ChuanJie Xie & Jun Xu

  3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, 210023, China

    Tao Pei

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  1. XiaoQian Liu
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Liu, X., Pei, T., Zhou, C. et al. A systems dynamic model of a coal-based city with multiple adaptive scenarios: A case study of Ordos, China. Sci. China Earth Sci. 61, 302–316 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-016-9077-5

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