Science China Earth Sciences

, Volume 59, Issue 6, pp 1225–1241 | Cite as

Circulation background of climate patterns in the past millennium: Uncertainty analysis and re-reconstruction of ENSO-like state

Review

Abstract

The question of whether or not global warming has paused since more than ten years ago, namely “warming hiatus”, has attracted the attention of climate science community including the IPCC. Some authors have attributed the “warming hiatus” to the internal changes in the climate system, i.e., the recombination of ocean-atmosphere circulations. Therefore, it is necessary to propose higher requirements on reconstructing circulation background of climate change for the past millennium. However, the analyses of changes in atmospheric circulation over the last millennium as well as the conclusions of related regional climate patterns are so widely different and contradictory, bringing uncertainties to our understanding of regional even global climate change to a great extent. On the other hand, in the last 10 years the high-precision U/Th-dated stalagmite oxygen isotope ratio (δ18O) sequences provided an accurate chronological frame for the paleoclimate study of the middle and late Pleistocene, in which all authors from China took the Chinese stalagmite δ18O as the summer monsoon index without exception. However, this point of view misleads the climate scientists into thinking that the stalagmite δ18O can be as the proxy of precipitation amount. Nevertheless, it is well known that all of these records have a lot in common in the low frequency trend. However, most sequences cannot be calibrated by instrumental precipitation records, and thus the uncertainty of the climate research framework of China and even of the world has increased. Therefore, it is imperative for climatology to clarify the origin of contradiction and to reduce the uncertainty as early as possible. On the basis of analyzing the significance of stalagmite δ18O in the monsoon regions of China, the author tries to propose a new circulation proxy in this paper: integrating the Chinese stalagmite oxygen isotope sequence to reconstruct the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature gradient, i.e., the large-scale ENSO-like state over the past millennium. Furthermore, the author speculates that it was warm in the modern times and the Medieval Period, but the circulation recombination was different in both periods. And this inference could be supported by the longer record since Last Glacial Maximum. In other words, the attribution analysis of the identical low-frequency trends of Chinese stalagmite δ18O on a large scale shows that the ENSO-like state controls the climate change in the monsoon regions of China at different time scales (from interannual to century or even longer time scales). Wherein the important connection of circulations is the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), that is to say, besides the interannual and decadal time scales, the WPSH would possess the circulation mode on longer timescales. For example, we may discuss the change of the WPSH in the whole Holocene epoch, i.e., the half precession period. These discussions could make sense to the study of not only the paleoclimate but also the modern climate.

Keywords

The past millennium ENSO Circulation background Climate pattern WPSH Stalagmite δ18Circulation recombination 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Berkelhammer M, Sinha A, Mudelsee M, Cheng H, Edwards R L, Cannariato K. 2010. Persistent multidecadal power of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Earth Planet Sci Lett, 290: 166–172CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Bjerknes J. 1969. Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon Weather Rev, 97: 163–172CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Cai Y J, Tan L C, Cheng H, An Z S, Edwards R L, Kelly M J, Kong X G, Wang X F. 2010. The variation of summer monsoon precipitation in central China since the last deglaciation. Earth Planet Sci Lett, 291: 21–31CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Chen C, Shen X Y, Xu Y. 2011. An analysis of precipitation and atmospheric circulation characteristic over Eastern China in the past millennium under different forcing factors (in Chinese). Quat Sci, 31: 873–882Google Scholar
  5. Chen J H, Chen F H, Feng S, Huang W, Liu J B, Zhou A F. 2015. Hydroclimatic changes in China and surroundings during the medieval climate anomaly and little ice age: Spatial patterns and possible mechanisms. Quat Sci Rev, 107: 98–111CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Chen W, Lee J Y, Lu R, Dong B, Ha K J. 2015. Intensified impact of tropical Atlantic SST on the western North Pacific summer climate under a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Clim Dyn, 45: 2033–2046CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Chen W, Lu R Y, Dong B W. 2014. Intensified anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific during El Niño decaying summer under a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation. J Geophys Res, 119, doi: 10.1002/2014JD022199Google Scholar
  8. Chu K C. 1973. A preliminary study on the climatic fluctuations during the last 5000 years in China. Sci Sin Ser A, 16: 226–256Google Scholar
  9. Clemens S C, Prell W L, Sun Y. 2010. Orbital-scale timing and mechanisms driving Late Pleistocene Indo—Asian summer monsoons: reinterpreting cave speleothem δ 18O. Paleoceanography 25: PA4207, doi: 10.1029/2010PA001926CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Clement A C, Seager R, Cane M A, Zebiak S. 1996. An ocean dynamical thermostat. J Clim, 9: 2190–196CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Cobb K M, Charles C D, Cheng H, Edwards R L. 2003. El Nino/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium. Nature, 424: 271–276CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Conroy J L, Restrepo A, Overpeck J T, Steinitz-Kannan M, Cole J E, Bush M, Colinvaux P A. 2009. Unprecedented recent warming of surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Nat Geosci, 2: 46–50CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Conroy J L, Overpeck J T, Cole J E. 2010. El Niño/Southern Oscillation and changes in the zonal gradient of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature over the last 1.2 ka. PAGES News, 18: 32–34Google Scholar
  14. Cowtan K, Way R G. 2014. Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. Q J R Meteorol Soc, doi: 10.1002/qj.2297Google Scholar
  15. Dansgaard W. 1964. Stable isotopes in precipitation. Tellus, 16: 436–468CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Dayem K E, Molnar P, Battisti D S, Roe G H. 2010. Lessons learned from oxygen isotopes in modern precipitation applied to interpretation of speleothem records of paleoclimate from eastern Asia. Earth Planet Sci Lett, 295: 219–230CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Deser C, Phillips A S, Alexander M A. 2010. Twentieth century tropical sea surface temperature trends revisited. Geophys Res Lett, 37: L10701, doi: 10.1029/2010GL043321CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Emile-Geay J, Cobb K M, Mann M E, Wittenberg, A T. 2013a. Estimating Central Equatorial Pacific SST variability over the past millennium. Part I: Methodology and validation. J Clim, 26: 2302–2328Google Scholar
  19. Emile-Geay J, Cobb K M, Mann M E, Wittenberg, A T. 2013b. Estimating Central Equatorial Pacific SST variability over the past millennium. Part II: Reconstructions and Implications. J Clim, 26: 2329–2352Google Scholar
  20. England M H, McGregor S, Spence P, Spence P, Meehl G A, Timmermann A, Cai W J, Gupta A S, McPhaden M J, Purich A, Santoso A. 2014. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nat Clim Change, 4: 222–227CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Fan W J, Chen R H. 2011. Sea surface salinity and east Asian monsoon precipitation since the last 50000 years in the northern South China Sea (in Chinese). Quat Sci, 31: 227–235Google Scholar
  22. Fleitmann D, Burns S J, Mudelsee M, Neff U, Kramers J, Mangini A, Matter A. 2003. Holocene forcing of the Indian Monsoon Recorded in a stalagmite from Southern Oman. Science, 300: 1737–1739CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Gao H, Jiang W, Li W J. 2013. Transition of the annual cycle of precipitation from double-peak mode to single-peak mode in South China. Chin Sci Bull, 58: 3994–3999CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Ge Q S, Zhang X Z, Hao Z X, Zheng J Y. 2011. Rates of temperature change in China during the past 2000 years. Sci China Earth Sci, 54: 1627–1634CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Ge Q S, Zheng J Y, Fang X Q, Man Z M, Zhang X Q, Zhang P Y, Wang W C. 2003. Winter half-year temperature reconstruction for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River, China, during the past 2000 years. Holocene, 13: 933–940Google Scholar
  26. Gong D Y, Wang S W. 1999. Impact of ENSO on rainfall of global land and China. Chin Sci Bull, 44: 852–857CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Guo G X, Xin B D, Zhu L, Shen Y Y, Xu L, Ji Y Q. 2012. Multi-scale Analysis of Annual Precipitation in Beijing Area from 1724 to 2009 Based on Wavelet Transformation (in Chinese). J China Hydrol, 32: 29–33Google Scholar
  28. He C, Zhou T J. 2015. Responses of the western North Pacific Subtropical High to global warming under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios projected by 33 CMIP5 models: The dominance of tropical Indian Ocean tropical western Pacific SST gradient. J Clim, 28: 365–380CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. He L Y, Hu C Y, Huang J H, Xie S C, Wang Y X. 2009. Characteristics of large-scale circulation of east Asian monsoon indicated by oxygen isotope of stalagmite (in Chinese). Quat Sci, 29: 950–956Google Scholar
  30. He Y Q, Wang Y J, Kong X G, Cheng H. 2005. High resolution stalagmite δ 18O records over the past 1000 years from Dongge Cave in Guizhou. Chin Sci Bull, 50: 1003–1008CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Hu C Y, Henderson G M, Huang J H, Xie S C, Sun Y, Johnson K R. 2008. Quantification of Holocene Asian monsoon rainfall from spatially separated cave records. Earth Planet Sci Lett, 266: 221–232CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Huang X S, Kuang X Y, Qin Z R, Huang M L, Lin K P. 2007. Multi-time-scale variations of recent centenary series of temperature and precipitation in Guangxi of China (in Chinese). Adv Clim Change Res, 3: 362–367Google Scholar
  33. Huang S S, Yu Z H. 1961. Studies on the structure of the subtropical high and a number of issues associated with the general circulation. Acta Meteorol Sin, 31: 339–359Google Scholar
  34. Hutton J. 1788. Theory of the Earth, or an investigation of the laws observable in the composition, dissolution, and restoration of land upon the globe. Trans R Soc Edinb-Earth Sci, 1: 209–304CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Jiang X Y, Li Z Z, Li J Q, Kong X G, Guo Y. 2012. Stalagmite δ 18O record from Yuhua Cave over the past 500 years and its regional climate significance (in Chinese). Sci Geogr Sin, 32: 207–212Google Scholar
  36. Jing Y Y, Li S L, Wan J H, Luo F F. 2014. Relationships between the Oxygen Isotopes in East Asian stalagmites and large-scale atmospheric and oceanic modes. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett, 7: 540–545CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Jones P D, Mann M E. 2004. Climate over past millennia. Rev Geophys, 42: RG2002, doi: 10.1029/2003RG000143CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Karnauskas K B, Seager R, Kaplan A, Kushnir Y, Cane M A. 2009. Observed strengthening of the zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. J Clim, 22: 4316–4321CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Kaufmann R K, Kauppi H, Mann M L, Stock J H. 2011. Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 108: 11790–11793CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Kharol S K, Kaskaoutis D G, Sharma A R, Singh R P. 2013. Long-Term (1951–2007) rainfall trends around six Indian cities: Current state, meteorological, and urban dynamics. Adv Meteorol, doi: 10.1155/2013/572954Google Scholar
  41. Kipfmueller K F, Larson E R, St George S. 2012. Does proxy uncertainty affect the relations inferred between the Pacific decadal oscillation and wildfire activity in the western United States? Geophys Res Lett, 39, doi: 10.1029/2011GL050645Google Scholar
  42. Kosaka Y, Xie S P. 2013. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature, 501: 403–407CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Koutavas A, Joanides S. 2012. El Niño-southern oscillation extrema in the Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum. Paleoceanography, 27: PA4208, doi: 10.1029/2012PA002378CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Kuang X Y, Liu J, Lin H J, Wang H L, Ti R Y. 2010. Comparison of East Asian summer monsoon in three climate typical periods during last millennium based on ECHO-G Simulation (in Chinese). Adv Earth Sci, 25: 1082–1090Google Scholar
  45. Kumar K K, Rajagopalan B, Cane M A. 1999. On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science, 284: 2156–2159CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Li C H, Liang J Y, Wu S S. 2004. The characteristics of precipitation in the raining season in Guangzhou and its affecting factors over the past 100 years (in Chinese). J Trop Meteorol, 20: 365–374Google Scholar
  47. Li H C, Gu D L, Stott L D, Chen W J. 1998. Applications of interannual-resolution stable isotope records of speleothem: Climatic changes in Beijing and Tianjin, China. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 41: 362–368CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Li Y, Yang X Q, Xie Q. 2010. Selective interaction between interannual variability of North Pacific Subtropical High and ENSO cycle (in Chinese). Chin J Geophys, 53: 1543–1553Google Scholar
  49. Li J, Tao T T, Pang Z H, Tan M, Kong Y L, Duan W H, Zhang Y W. 2015. Identification of different moisture sources through isotopic monitoring during a storm event. J Hydrometeorol, 16: 1918–1927CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Liao M N, Yu G. 2014. Reconstruction and simulations for precipitation and atmospheric circulation over the past 30000 years in Asia (in Chinese). Prog Geogr, 33: 807–814Google Scholar
  51. Liu J, Storch H, Chen X, Zorita E, Zheng J Y, Wang S M. 2005. Simulated and reconstructed winter temperature in the eastern China during the last millennium. Chin Sci Bull, 50: 2872–2877Google Scholar
  52. Liu J H, Zhang P Z, Cheng H, Chen F H, Yang X L, Zhang D Z, Zhou J, Gu J G, An C L, Sang W C, Johnson K R. 2008. Asian summer monsoon precipitation recorded by stalagmite oxygen isotopic composition in the western Loess Plateau during 1875–2003 AD and its linkage with ocean-atmosphere system. Chin Sci Bull, 53: 2041–2049Google Scholar
  53. Liu X H, Qin D H, Shao X M, Chen T, Ren J W. 2005. Temperature variations recovered from tree-rings in the middle Qilian Mountain over the last millennium. Sci China Series D-Earth Sci, 48: 521–529Google Scholar
  54. Liu Y, An Z S, Ma H Z, Cai Q F, Liu Z Y, Kutzbach J K, Shi J F, Song H M, Sun J Y, Yi L, Li Q, Yang Y K, Wang L. 2006. Precipitation variation in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau recorded by the tree rings since 850 AD and its relevance to the Northern Hemisphere temperature. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 49: 408–420CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Liu Y, Cai Q F, Song H M, An Z S, Linderholm H W. 2011. Amplitudes, rates, periodicities and causes of temperature variations in the past 2485 years and future trends over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau. Chin Sci Bull, 56: 2986–2994CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Liu Z, Wen X Y, Brady E C, Otto-Bliesner B, Yu G, Lu H Y, Cheng H, Wang Y J, Zheng W P, Ding Y H, Edwards R L, Cheng J, Liu W, Yang H. 2014. Chinese cave records and the east asia summer monsoon. Quat Sci Rev, 83: 115–128CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Luo J J, Sasaki W, Masumoto Y. 2012. Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 109: 18701–18706CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Luo L, He J H, Tan Y K. 2005. The composite feature and possible mechanisms during the westward extension of subtropical high in the western Pacific (in Chinese). Sci Meteorol Sin, 25: 465–473Google Scholar
  59. Luo W J, Wang S J. 2008. Transmission of oxygen isotope signals of precipitation-soil water-drip water and its implications in Liangfeng Cave of Guizhou, China. Chin Sci Bull, 53: 3364–3370CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Lu R Y, Dong B W, Ding H. 2006. Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the Asian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett, 33: L24701, doi: 10.1029/2006GL027655CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. MacDonald G M, Case R A. 2005. Variations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over the past millennium. Geophys Res Lett, 32: L08703, doi: 10.1029/2005GL022478CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Maher B A. 2008. Holocene variability of the East Asian summer monsoon from Chinese cave records: A re-assessment. Holocene 18: 861–866CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Maher B A, Thompson R. 2012. Oxygen isotopes from Chinese caves: Records not of monsoon rainfall but of circulation regime. J Quat Sci, 27: 615–624CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Man W M, Zhou T J, Zhang J, Wu C Q, Wu B. 2010. The equilibrium response of LASG/IAP Climate System Model to prescribed external forcing during the Little Ice Age (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 34: 914–924Google Scholar
  65. Man W M, Zhou T J. 2011. Forced response of atmospheric oscillations during the last millennium simulated by a climate system model. Chin Sci Bull, 56: 3042–3052CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Man W M, Zhou T J, Jungclaus J H. 2012. Simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon during the last millennoium thi the MPI Earth System Model. J Clim, 25: 7852–7866CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. Mann M E, Bradley R S, Hughes M K. 2000. Long-term variability in the El Niño Southern Oscillation and associated teleconnections. In: Diaz H F, Markgraf V, eds. El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Multi-RG2002 Jones and Mann: CLIMATE OVER PAST MILLENNIA RG2002 Scale Variability and its Impacts on Natural Ecosystems and Society. New York: Cambridge Univ Press. 357–412Google Scholar
  68. Mann M E, Cane M A, Zebiak S E, Clement A. 2005. Volcanic and solar forcing of the tropical Pacific over the past 1000 years. J Clim, 18: 447–456CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Mantua N J, Hare S R, Zhang Y, Wallace J M, Francis R C. 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 78: 1069–1079CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Matthes F E. 1939. Report of the committee on glaciers. Trans Am Geophys Union, 20: 518–523CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. Meehl G A, Arblaster J M, Fasullo J T, Hu A, Trenberth K E. 2011. Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nature Clim. Change, 1: 360–364CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. Moy C M, Seltzer G O, Rodbell D T, Anderson D M. 2002. Variability of El Nino/Southern Oscillation activity at millennial timescales during the Holocene epoch. Nature, 420: 162–165CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Mu Q Z, Wang S W, Zhu J H, Gong D Y. 2001. Variations of the Western Pacific subtropical high in summer during the last hundred years (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 25: 787–797Google Scholar
  74. Mu Q Z, Wang S W. 2002. Variations of western Pacific subtropical high in four seasons during the last hundred years. Acta Meteorol Sin, 60: 668–679Google Scholar
  75. Nan S L, Tan M, Zhao P. 2014. Evaluation of the ability of the Chinese stalagmite δ 18O to record the variation in atmospheric circulation during the second half of the 20th century. Clim Past, 10: 975–985CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  76. Neff U, Burns S J, Mangini A, Mudelsee M, Fleitmann D, Matter A. 2001. Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between 9 and 6 ka ago. Nature, 411: 290–293CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  77. Mu Q Z, Wang S W. 2002. Variations of western Pacific subtropical high in four seasons during the last hundred years. Acta Meteor Sin, 60: 668–679Google Scholar
  78. Paulsen D E, Li H C, Ku T L. 2003. Climate variability in central China over the last 1270 years revealed by high-resolution stalagmite records. Quat Sci Rev, 22: 691–701CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  79. Pausata F S R, Battisti D S, Nisancioglu K H, Bitz C M. 2011. Chinese stalagmite δ 18O controlled by changes in the Indian monsoon during a simulated Heinrich event. Nat Geosci, 4: 474–480CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  80. Oppo D W, Rosenthal Y, Linsley B K. 2009. 2000-year-long temperature and hydrology reconstructions from the Indo-Pacific warm pool. Nature, 460: 1113–1116CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  81. Rajaratnam B, Romano J, Tsiang M, Diffenbaugh N S. 2015. Debunking the climate hiatus. Clim Change, 133: 129–140CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  82. Rodbell D T, Seltzer G O, Anderson D M, Abbott M B, Enfield D B, Newman J H. 1999. An ~15000-year record of El Nino-driven alluviation in Southwestern Ecuador. Sciecne, 283: 516–520CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  83. Ropelewski C F, Halpert M S. 1987. Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev, 115: 1606–1626CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  84. Ropelewski C F, Halpert M S. 1989. Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the southern oscillation. J Clim, 2: 268–284CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  85. Roxy M K, Ritika K, Terray P, Murtugudde R, Ashok K, Goswami1 B N. 2015. Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient. Nat. Commun. 6:7423 doi: 10.1038/ncomms8423CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  86. Sachs J P, Sachse D, Smittenberg R H, Zhang Z H, Battisti D S, Golubic S. 2009. Southward movement of the Pacific intertropical convergence zone AD 1400–1850. Nat Geosci, 2: 519–525CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  87. Sharp G. J. 2013. Are Uranus & Neptune Responsible for solar grand minima and solar cycle modulation? Int J Astron Ast, 3: 260–273CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  88. Shao X M, Huang L, Liu H B, Liang E Y, Fang X Q, Wang L L. 2005. Reconstruction of precipitation variation from tree rings in recent 1000 years in Delingha, Qinghai. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 48: 939–949CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  89. Shi X H, Qin N S, Shao X M, Wand Q C, Liu Y H. 2009. Precipitation change over the past 1000 years recorded in Sabina Tibetica Tree Rings in Lake Qinghai Basin (in Chinese). J Lake Sci, 21: 579–586CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  90. Simmonds L, Bi D, Hope P. 1999. Atmospheric water vapor flux and its association with rainfall over China in summer. J Clim, 12: 1353–1367CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  91. Sinha A, Berkelhammer M, Stott L, Mudelsee M, Cheng H, Biswas J. 2011. The leading mode of Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation variability during the last millennium. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 38, L15703, doi:10.1029/2011GL047713CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  92. Solomon A, Newman M. 2012. Reconciling disparate twentieth-century Indo-Pacific ocean temperature trends in the instrumental record. Nat Clim Change, 2: 691–699CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  93. Solomon S, Daniel J S, Neely R R III, Vernier J P, Dutton E G, Thomason L W. 2011. The persistently variable “background” stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change. Science, 333: 866–870CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  94. Solomon S, Rosenlof K H, Portmann R W, Daniel J S, Davis S M, Sanford T J, Plattner G K. 2010. Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming. Science, 327: 1219–1223CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  95. Stahle D W, D’Arrigo R D, Krusic P J, Cleaveland M K, Cook E R, Allan R J, Cole J E, Dunbar R B, Therell M D, Gay D A, Moore M D, Stokers M A, Burns B T, Thompson L G. 1998. Experimental dendroclimatic reconstruction of the southern oscillation. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 79: 2137–2152CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  96. Sun L G, Yan H, Wang Y H. 2012. South China Sea hydrological changes over the past millennium (in Chinese). Chin Sci Bull, 57: 1730–1738Google Scholar
  97. Tan L C, Cai Y J, Cheng H, An Z S, Edwards R L. 2009. Summer monsoon precipitation variations in central China over the past 750 years derived from a high-resolution absolute-dated stalagmite. Paleogeogr Paleoclimatol Paleoecol, 280: 432–439CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  98. Tan L C, Cai Y J, An Z S, Edwards R L, Cheng H, Shen C C, Zhang H W. 2011. Centennial- to decadal-scale monsoon precipitation variability in the semi-humid region, northern China during the last 1860 years: Records from stalagmites in Huangye Cave. Holocene, 21: 287–296CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  99. Tan L C, An Z S, Huh C A, Cai Y J, Shen C C, Shiau L J, Yan L B, Cheng H, Edwards R L. 2014. Cyclic precipitation variation on the western Loess Plateau of China during the past four centuries. Sci Reports, 6381, doi: 10.1038/srep06381Google Scholar
  100. Tan M. 2009. Circulation effect: Climatic significance of the short term variability of the oxygen isotopes in stalagmites from monsoonal China—Dialogue between paleoclimate records and modern climate research (in Chinese). Quat Sci, 29: 851–862Google Scholar
  101. Tan M. 2011. Trade-wind driven inverse coupling between stalagmite δ 18O from monsoon region of China and large scale temperature—Circulation effect on decadal to precessional timescales (in Chinese). Quat Sci, 31: 1086–1097Google Scholar
  102. Tan M. 2014. Circulation effect: Response of precipitation δ 18O to the ENSO cycle in monsoon regions of China. Clim Dyn, 42: 1067–1077CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  103. Tan M, Cai B G. 2005. Preliminary Calibration of Stalagmite Oxygen Isotopes from Eastern Monsoon China with Northern Hemisphere Temperatures. PAGES News, 13: 16–17Google Scholar
  104. Tan M, Hou J Z, Liu T S. 2004. Sun-coupled climate connection between eastern Asia and northern Atlantic. Geophys Res Lett, 31, doi: 10.1029/2003GL019085Google Scholar
  105. Tan M, Liu T, Hou J, Qin X G, Zhang H C, Li T Y. 2003. Cyclic rapid warming on centennial-scale revealed by a 2650-year stalagmite record of warm season temperature. Geophys Res Lett, 30: 1617–1620CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  106. Tan M, Shao X M, Liu J, Cai B G. 2009. Comparative analysis between a proxy based climate reconstruction and GCM based simulation of temperatures over the last millennium in China. J Quat Sci, 24: 547–551CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  107. Tao S Y, Zhu F K. 1964. The 100mb flow patterns in southern Asia in summer and its relation to the advance and retreat of the West-Pacific subtropical anticyclone over the Far East (in Chinese). Acta Meteorol Sin, 34: 385–395Google Scholar
  108. Tao T, Tan M, Duan W H. 2013. Circulation effect on the shortest time scale: multiple water sources traced by δ 18O during single precipitation event (in Chinese). Quat Sci, 33: 615–617Google Scholar
  109. Tracy A M, David W L, Howard J S. 1999. Glacial-interglacial changes in subantarctic sea surface temperature and δ 18O-water using foraminiferal Mg. Earth Planet Sci Lett, 170: 417–432CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  110. Vecchi G A, Soden B J, Wittenberg A T, Held I M, Leetmaa A, Harrison M J. 2006. Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature, 441: 73–76CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  111. Walker G T. 1928. World weather. Mon Weather Rev, 56: 167–170CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  112. Wang N, Zhang X J, Jin L Y. 2015. The spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the south Asia high and western Pacific subtropical high on millennial time scale. Quat Sci, 35: 1425–1436Google Scholar
  113. Wang N L, Yao T D, Pu J C, Zhang Y L, Sun W Z. 2006. Climatic and environmental changes over the last millennium recorded in the Malan ice core from the northern Tibetan Plateau. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 49: 1079–1089CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  114. Wang S W, Gong D Y, Ye J L, Chen Z H. 2000. Seasonal precipitation series of Eastern China since 1880 and the variability (in Chinese). Acta Geogr Sin, 55: 281–293Google Scholar
  115. Wang S M, Liu J, Zhou J. 2003. The climate of Little Ice Age maximum in China (in Chinese). J Lake Sci, 15: 369–376CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  116. Wang Y J, Cheng H, Edwards R L, An Z S, Wu J Y, Shen C C, Dorale J A. 2001. A high-resolution absolute-dated Late Pleistocene monsoon record from Hulu Cave, China. Science, 294: 2345–2348CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  117. Wang Y J, Cheng H, Edwards R L, He Y Q, Kong X G, An Z S, Wu J Y, Kelly M J, Dykoski C A, Li X D. 2005. The Holocene Asian Monsoon: Links to solar changes and North Atlantic climate. Science, 308: 854–857CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  118. Wu G X, Liu Y M, Liu P. 1999. The effect of spatially non-uniform heating on the formation and variation of subtropical high—I scale analysis (in Chinese). Acta Meteorol Sin, 57: 257–263Google Scholar
  119. Wu G X, Chou J F, Liu Y M, He J H. 2002. Dynamics of the Formation and Variation of Subtropical Anticyclone (in Chinese). Beijing: Science Press. 314Google Scholar
  120. Wyrtki K. 1975. El Nino—The dynamic response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to atmospheric forcing. J Phys Oceanogr, 5: 572–584CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  121. Yan H, Sun L G, Liu X D, Qiu S C. 2010. Relationship between ENSO events and regional climate anomalies around the Xisha Islands during the last 50 years (in Chinese). J Trop Oceanog, 29: 29–35Google Scholar
  122. Yan H, Sun L G, Wang Y H, Huang W, Qiu S C, Yang C Y. 2011. A record of the Southern Oscillation Index for the past 2000 years from precipitation proxies. Nat Geosci, 4: 611–614CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  123. Yang B, Braeuning A, Johnson K R, Shi Y F. 2002. General characteristics of temperature variation in China during the last two millennia. Geophys Res Lett, 29: 1029–1040CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  124. Yao T D, Qin D H, Xu B Q, Yang M X, Duan K Q, Wang N L, Wang Y Q, Hou S G. 2006. Temperature change over the past millennium recorded in ice cores from the Tibetan Plateau (in Chinese). Adv Clim Change Res, 2: 99–103Google Scholar
  125. Ying M, Sun S Q. 2000. A study on the response of subtropical high over the western Pacific on the SST anomaly (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 24: 193–206CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  126. Yuan D X, Cheng H, Edwards R L, Dykoski C A, Kelly M J, Zhang M L, Qing J M, Lin Y S, Wang Y J, Wu J Y, Dorale J A, An Z S, Cai Y J. 2004. Timing, duration, and transition of the last interglacial Asian Monsoon. Science, 304: 575–578CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  127. Zebiak S E, Cane M A. 1987. A model El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev, 115: 2262–2278CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  128. Zhang D, Liu C Z, Jiang J M. 1997. Reconstruction of six regional dry/wet series and their abrupt change during the last 1000 years in east China (in Chinese). Quat Sci, 17: 1–10Google Scholar
  129. Zhang J, Zhou T J, Man W M, Li Z X. 2009. The transient simulation of little ice age by LASG/IAP climate system model FGOALS_gI (in Chinese). Quat Sci, 29: 1125–1134Google Scholar
  130. Zhang P Z, Cheng H, Edwards R L, Chen F H, Wang Y J, Yang X L, Liu J, Tan M, Wang X F, Liu J H, An C L, Dai Z B, Zhou J, Zhang D Z, Jia J H, Jin L Y, Johnson K R. 2008. A test of climate, sun, and culture relationships from an 1810-Year Chinese cave record. Science, 322: 940–942CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  131. Zhang Q Y. 1998. The relationship between the east summer Asia monsoon and the India monsoon. In: Institute of Atmosphere physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. East Asia Monsoon and Storm in China (in Chinese). Beijing: Meteorological Press. 266–273Google Scholar
  132. Zhao J Y, Yang Y, Peng T, Guo Y W, Ren X F, Zhang Y H, Nie X D, Liu X, Li J C, Ling X Y, Zhang Z Q. 2014. Variation of δ 18O values in the precipitation, cave drip water and modern calcite deposition in Jiguan Cave, Henan Province and its atmospheric circulation effect (in Chinese). Quat Sci, 34: 1106–1116Google Scholar
  133. Zheng J Y, Man Z M, Wang W C, Ge Q S, Zhang P Y. 2006. Precipitation variability and extreme events in Eastern China during the Past 1500 Years. Terr Atmos Ocean Sci, 17: 679–592Google Scholar
  134. Zheng J Y, Hao Z X, Zhang X Z, Liu H L, Li M Q, Ge Q S. 2014. Drought/flood spatial patterns in centennial cold and warm periods of the past 2000 years over eastern China. Chin Sci Bull, 59: 2964–2971CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  135. Zhou L Y, Yang K. 2001. Variation of precipitation in Shanghai during the last one hundred years and precipitation differences between city and suburb (in Chinese). Acta Geogr Sin, 56: 467–476Google Scholar
  136. Zhou T J, Wu B, Wen X Y, Li L J, Wang B. 2008. A fast version of LASG/IAP climate system model and its 1000-year control integration. Adv Atmos Sci, 25: 655–672CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  137. Zhou T J, Yu R C, Zhang J, Drange H, Cassou C, Deser C, Hodson D L R, Sanchez-Gomez E, Li J, Keenl-Yside N, Xin X G, Okumura Y. 2009. Why the western pacific subtropical high has extended westward since the Late 1970s. J Clim, 22: 2199–2215CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  138. Zhou T J, Li B, Man W M, Zhang L X, Zhang J. 2011. A comparison of the medieval warm period, Little Ice Age and 20th century warming simulated by the FGOALS climate system model. Chin Sci Bull, 56: 3028–3041CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  139. Zhou X J, Zhao P, Liu G, Zhou T J. 2011. Characteristics of decadal-centennial-scale changes in East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age and in the present day. Chin Sci Bull, 56: 3003–3011CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  140. Zhu H F, Zheng Y H, Shao X M, Liu X H, Xu Y, Liang E Y. 2008. Millennial temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring widths of Qilian juniper from Wulan, Qinghai Province, China. Chin Sci Bull, 53: 3914–3920CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  141. Zhu X D, Wang Z Y, Li L, Qin N S, Wang Q C. 2007. Summer temperature in northeast of Qaidam Basin retrieved from tree-ring chronology (in Chinese). Sci Geogr Sin, 27: 256260Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Science China Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and GeophysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Personalised recommendations