Hyperresolution information and hyperresolution ignorance in modelling the hydrology of the land surface

Abstract

There is a strong drive towards hyperresolution earth system models in order to resolve finer scales of motion in the atmosphere. The problem of obtaining more realistic representation of terrestrial fluxes of heat and water, however, is not just a problem of moving to hyperresolution grid scales. It is much more a question of a lack of knowledge about the parameterisation of processes at whatever grid scale is being used for a wider modelling problem. Hyperresolution grid scales cannot alone solve the problem of this hyperresolution ignorance. This paper discusses these issues in more detail with specific reference to land surface parameterisations and flood inundation models. The importance of making local hyperresolution model predictions available for evaluation by local stakeholders is stressed. It is expected that this will be a major driving force for improving model performance in the future.

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Beven, K., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F. et al. Hyperresolution information and hyperresolution ignorance in modelling the hydrology of the land surface. Sci. China Earth Sci. 58, 25–35 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-014-5003-4

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Keywords

  • hyperresolution models
  • epistemic uncertainties
  • models of everywhere
  • communicating uncertainty
  • flood risk