Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences

, Volume 51, Issue 6, pp 885–898 | Cite as

Prediction of carbon exchanges between China terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere in 21st century



The projected changes in carbon exchange between China terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere and vegetation and soil carbon storage during the 21st century were investigated using an atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2). The results show that in the coming 100 a, for SRES B2 scenario and constant atmospheric CO2 concentration, the net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystem in China will be decreased slowly, and vegetation and soil carbon storage as well as net ecosystem productivity (NEP) will also be decreased. The carbon sink for China terrestrial ecosystem in the beginning of the 20th century will become totally a carbon source by the year of 2020, while for B2 scenario and changing atmospheric CO2 concentration, NPP for China will increase continuously from 2.94 GtC · a−1 by the end of the 20th century to 3.99 GtC · a−1 by the end of the 21st century, and vegetation and soil carbon storage will increase to 110.3 GtC. NEP in China will keep rising during the first and middle periods of the 21st century, and reach the peak around 2050s, then will decrease gradually and approach to zero by the end of the 21st century.


carbon cycle AVIM2 climate change B2 scenario China terrestrial ecosystems 


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Copyright information

© Science in China Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Chinese Ecosystem Research Network, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  2. 2.Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

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