Zusammenfassung
Hintergrund
In den letzten Jahren wurden zahlreiche Prognosemodelle zur Bewertung des kardiovaskulären Risikos bei Patienten mit Typ-2-Diabetes entwickelt. Dabei besteht ein hoher Bedarf für die Etablierung zuverlässiger Risiko-Scores.
Material und Methode
Der vorliegende Übersichtsbeitrag fasst die wichtigsten publizierten Studien zur Stratifizierung des kardiovaskulären Risikos bei Patienten mit Typ-2-Diabetes zusammen. Es werden populationsbasierte und spezifische Prognosemodelle für den Typ-2-Diabetes beschrieben und deren prädiktive Güte anhand von Diskriminierungs- und Kalibrierungswerten miteinander verglichen.
Ergebnisse
Die vorgestellten diabetesspezifischen Prognosemodelle weisen insgesamt eine etwas höhere prognostische Güte als die populationsbasierten Modelle auf und erscheinen daher für die klinische Praxis besser geeignet. Bisher wurden nur die Modelle UKPDS, DCS und ADVANCE in externen Studienkohorten validiert, wobei die prognostische Güte für diese 3 Risiko-Scores in den externen Kohorten als moderat zu bezeichnen ist. Zu berücksichtigen ist dabei, dass Diskriminierungsfähigkeit und Kalibrierung in den externen Kohorten von den untersuchten Populationen und ethnischen Gruppen abhängen.
Abstract
Background
In recent years, many forecast models for the assessment of cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes have been developed. Thus, there is great need for the establishment of reliable risk scores.
Materials and methods
This review summarizes the most important studies published on cardiovascular risk stratification in patients with type 2 diabetes. General, population-based, and diabetes-specific risk scores for type 2 diabetes are described and their predictive validity compared using discrimination and calibration values.
Results
The diabetes-specific risk stratification models presented have an overall slightly higher prognostic accuracy than population-based models and therefore appear more suitable for clinical practice. So far only the models UKPDS, DCS, and ADVANCE have been validated in external study cohorts, whereby the prognostic accuracy for these three risk scores in the external cohorts must be described as moderate. However, it must be taken into account that the discrimination and calibration in external cohorts is dependent on the populations and ethnic groups investigated.
Literatur
American Diabetes Association (2014) Diagnosis and classification of diabetes mellitus. Diabetes Care 37:81–S90
Ryden L, Grant PJ, Anker SD et al (2013) ESC Guidelines on diabetes, pre-diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases developed in collaboration with the EASD: the Task Force on diabetes, pre-diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and developed in collaboration with the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD). Eur Heart J 34:3035–3087
Bulugahapitiya U, Siyambalapitiya S, Sithole J et al (2009) Is diabetes a coronary risk equivalent? Systematic review and meta-analysis. Diabet Med 26:142–148
Bundesärztekammer (Bäk) KBK, Arbeitsgemeinschaft der Wissenschaftlichen Medizinischen Fachgesellschaften (Awmf) (2014) Nationale VersorgungsLeitlinie Therapie des Typ-2-Diabetes – Langfassung, 1. Aufl. doi:10.6101/AZQ/000203
Chamnan P, Simmons RK, Sharp SJ et al (2009) Cardiovascular risk assessment scores for people with diabetes: a systematic review. Diabetologia 52:2001–2014
Coleman RL, Stevens RJ, Retnakaran R et al (2007) Framingham, SCORE, and DECODE risk equations do not provide reliable cardiovascular risk estimates in type 2 diabetes. Diabetes Care 30:1292–1293
Conditions. TNCCFC (2009) Type 2 diabetes: the management of type 2 diabetes. NICE clinical guideline 87. Royal College of Physicians
Costa B, Cabre JJ, Martin F et al (2005) The Framingham function overestimates stroke risk for diabetes and metabolic syndrome among Spanish population. Aten Primaria 35:392–398
Davis WA, Colagiuri S, Davis TM (2009) Comparison of the Framingham and United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study cardiovascular risk equations in Australian patients with type 2 diabetes from the Fremantle Diabetes Study. Med J Aust 190:180–184
Davis WA, Knuiman MW, Davis TM (2010) An Australian cardiovascular risk equation for type 2 diabetes: the Fremantle Diabetes Study. Intern Med J 40:286–292
Donnan PT, Donnelly L, New JP et al (2006) Derivation and validation of a prediction score for major coronary heart disease events in a U.K. type 2 diabetic population. Diabetes Care 29:1231–1236
Echouffo-Tcheugui JB, Kengne AP (2013) Comparative performance of diabetes-specific and general population-based cardiovascular risk assessment models in people with diabetes mellitus. Diabetes Metab 39:389–396
Elley CR, Robinson E, Kenealy T et al (2010) Derivation and validation of a new cardiovascular risk score for people with type 2 diabetes: the new zealand diabetes cohort study. Diabetes Care 33:1347–1352
Evans JM, Wang J, Morris AD (2002) Comparison of cardiovascular risk between patients with type 2 diabetes and those who had had a myocardial infarction: cross sectional and cohort studies. BMJ 324:939–942
Federation ID (2012) Clinical guidelines task force. Global guideline for type 2 diabetes
Folsom AR, Chambless LE, Duncan BB et al (2003) Prediction of coronary heart disease in middle-aged adults with diabetes. Diabetes Care 26:2777–2784
Game FL, Jones AF (2001) Coronary heart disease risk assessment in diabetes mellitus – a comparison of PROCAM and Framingham risk assessment functions. Diabet Med 18:355–359
Gohlke H, Albus C, Gysan DB et al (2009) Cardiovascular prevention in clinical practice (ESC and German guidelines 2007). Herz 34:4–14
Guzder RN, Gatling W, Mullee MA et al (2005) Prognostic value of the Framingham cardiovascular risk equation and the UKPDS risk engine for coronary heart disease in newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes: results from a United Kingdom study. Diabet Med 22:554–562
Howard BV, Best LG, Galloway JM et al (2006) Coronary heart disease risk equivalence in diabetes depends on concomitant risk factors. Diabetes Care 29:391–397
Jimeno Mollet J, Molist Brunet N, Franch Nadal J et al (2005) Variability in the calculation of coronary risk in type-2 diabetes mellitus. Aten Primaria 35:30–36
Kengne AP, Patel A, Colagiuri S et al (2010) The Framingham and UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk equations do not reliably estimate the probability of cardiovascular events in a large ethnically diverse sample of patients with diabetes: the Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron-MR Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) Study. Diabetologia 53:821–831
Kengne AP, Patel A, Marre M et al (2011) Contemporary model for cardiovascular risk prediction in people with type 2 diabetes. Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil 18:393–398
Kothari V, Stevens RJ, Adler AI et al (2002) UKPDS 60: risk of stroke in type 2 diabetes estimated by the UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine. Stroke 33:1776–1781
Lu SE, Beckles GL, Crosson JC et al (2012) Evaluation of risk equations for prediction of short-term coronary heart disease events in patients with long-standing type 2 diabetes: the Translating Research into Action for Diabetes (TRIAD) study. BMC Endocr Disord 12:12
McEwan P, Williams JE, Griffiths JD et al (2004) Evaluating the performance of the Framingham risk equations in a population with diabetes. Diabet Med 21:318–323
McGorrian C, Yusuf S, Islam S et al (2011) Estimating modifiable coronary heart disease risk in multiple regions of the world: the INTERHEART modifiable risk score. Eur Heart J 32:581–589
Pellegrini E, Maurantonio M, Giannico IM et al (2011) Risk for cardiovascular events in an Italian population of patients with type 2 diabetes. Nutr Metab Cardiovasc Dis 21:885–892
Perk J, De Backer G, Gohlke H et al (2012) European Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice (version 2012). The Fifth Joint Task Force of the European Society of Cardiology and other societies on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice (constituted by representatives of nine societies and by invited experts). Eur Heart J 33:1635–1701
Protopsaltis ID, Konstantinopoulos PA, Kamaratos AV et al (2004) Comparative study of prognostic value for coronary disease risk between the U.K. prospective diabetes study and Framingham models. Diabetes Care 27:277–278
Robinson T, Elley CR, Wells S et al (2012) New Zealand Diabetes Cohort Study cardiovascular risk score for people with Type 2 diabetes: validation in the PREDICT cohort. J Prim Health Care 4:181–188
Ryden L, Standl E, Bartnik M et al (2007) Guidelines on diabetes, pre-diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases: executive summary. The Task Force on Diabetes and Cardiovascular Diseases of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD). Eur Heart J 28:88–136
Simmons RK, Coleman RL, Price HC et al (2009) Performance of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Risk Engine and the Framingham risk equations in estimating cardiovascular disease in the EPIC- Norfolk Cohort. Diabetes Care 32:708–713
Stephens JW, Ambler G, Vallance P et al (2004) Cardiovascular risk and diabetes. Are the methods of risk prediction satisfactory? Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil 11:521–528
Stevens RJ, Kothari V, Adler AI et al (2001) The UKPDS risk engine: a model for the risk of coronary heart disease in type II diabetes (UKPDS 56). Clin Sci 101:671–679
Tillin T, Hughes AD, Whincup P et al (2014) Ethnicity and prediction of cardiovascular disease: performance of QRISK2 and Framingham scores in a U.K. tri-ethnic prospective cohort study (SABRE–Southall And Brent REvisited). Heart 100:60–67
Van Der Heijden AA, Ortegon MM, Niessen LW et al (2009) Prediction of coronary heart disease risk in a general, pre-diabetic, and diabetic population during 10 years of follow-up: accuracy of the Framingham, SCORE, and UKPDS risk functions: the Hoorn Study. Diabetes Care 32:2094–2098
Van Dieren S, Beulens JW, Kengne AP et al (2012) Prediction models for the risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes: a systematic review. Heart 98:360–369
Yang X, Ma RC, So WY et al (2008) Development and validation of a risk score for hospitalization for heart failure in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus. Cardiovasc Diabetol 7:9
Yang X, So WY, Kong AP et al (2007) Development and validation of stroke risk equation for Hong Kong Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes: the Hong Kong Diabetes Registry. Diabetes Care 30:65–70
Yang X, So WY, Kong AP et al (2008) Development and validation of a total coronary heart disease risk score in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Am J Cardiol 101:596–601
Zethelius B, Eliasson B, Eeg-Olofsson K et al (2011) A new model for 5-year risk of cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes, from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR). Diabetes Res Clin Pract 93:276–284
Einhaltung ethischer Richtlinien
Interessenkonflikt. V. H. Schmitt, C. Jünger und T. Münzel geben an, dass kein Interessenkonflikt besteht. V. Grossmann und P. S. Wild werden vom Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung finanziert (BMBF 01EO1003). P.S. Wild erhielt Forschungsförderung von Boehringer Ingelheim, PHILIPS Medical Systems, Sanofi-Aventis, Bayer Vital, Daiichi Sankyo Europa, IMO Institut, Portavita B. V., der Bundesanstalt für Arbeitsschutz und Arbeitsmedizin (BAuA), der Initiative Gesundheitswirtschaft und Demografie Rheinland-Pfalz (MSAGD) sowie der Stiftung Mainzer Herz. P. S. Wild erhielt außerdem Honorare für Vorträge bei Beratungstätigkeiten für Boehringer Ingelheim sowie dem Masterstudiengang Public Health der Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf. Dieser Beitrag beinhaltet keine Studien an Menschen oder Tieren.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
V. Grossmann und V. H. Schmitt waren gleichermaßen an der Erstellung dieses Beitrags beteiligt.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Grossmann, V., Schmitt, V., Jünger, C. et al. Stratifizierung des kardiovaskulären Risikos bei Patienten mit Typ-2-Diabetes. Diabetologe 10, 572–580 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11428-014-1213-9
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11428-014-1213-9