Journal of Systems Science and Complexity

, Volume 27, Issue 1, pp 208–224 | Cite as

A quantitative model for intraday stock price changes based on order flows

  • Meng Li
  • Xiaofeng Hui
  • Misao Endo
  • Kazuo Kishimoto


This paper proposes a double Markov model of the double continuous auction for describing intra-day price changes. The model splits intra-day price changes as the repetition of one tick price moves and assumes order arrivals are independent Poisson random processes. The dynamic process of price formation is described by a birth-death process of the double M/M/1 server queue corresponding to the best bid/ask. The initial depths of the best bid and ask are defined as different constants depending on the last price change. Thus, the price changes in the model follow a first-order Markov process. As the initial depth of the best bid/ask is originally larger than that of the opposite side when the last price is down/up, the model may explain the negative autocorrelations of the price of the best bid/ask. The estimated parameters are based on the real tick-by-tick data of the Nikkei 225 futures listed in Osaka Stock Exchanges. The authors find the model accurately predicts the returns of Osaka Stock Exchange average.


Intra-day price changes market microstructure order flow queuing theory 


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Copyright information

© Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, CAS and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Meng Li
    • 1
  • Xiaofeng Hui
    • 1
  • Misao Endo
    • 2
  • Kazuo Kishimoto
    • 3
  1. 1.School of ManagementHarbin Institute of TechnologyHarbinChina
  2. 2.Socio-economic Research CenterCentral Research Institute of Electric Power IndustryTokyoJapan
  3. 3.Graduate School of Systems & Information EngineeringUniversity of TsukubaIbaraki-kenJapan

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