This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
References
BARRO, R. (1990): “The stock market and investment”, Review of Financial Studies, 3, pp. 115–131.
BARSKY, R. and B. DE LONG (1993): “Why does the stock market fluctuate”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 108, pp. 293–311.
BINSWANGER, M. (1999): Stock Markets, Speculative Bubbles and Economic Growth, Aldershot: Edward Elgar.
BINSWANGER, M. (2000): “Stock market booms and real economic activity: Is this time different?”, International Review of Economics and Finance 9, pp. 387–415.
BIS (1999): Bank for International Settlements — 69th annual report, Basel.
BROWN, R. L., J. DURBIN, and J. M. EVANS (1975): “Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B 37, pp. 149–192.
CHOI, J. J., HAUSER, S. and K. KOPECKY (1999): “Does the stock market predict real activity? Time series evidence from the G-7 countries”, Journal of Banking & Finance 23, pp. 1771–1792.
DICKEY, D., JANSEN, D. and D. THORNTON (1994): “A Primer on cointegration with an application to money and income”, in RAO, B. (ed.): Cointegration for the Applied Economist, New York: St. Martin's Press.
DOMIAN, D. and D. LOUTON (1997): “A threshold autoregressive analysis of stock returns and real economic activity”, International Review of Economics and Finance 6, pp. 167–179.
ESTRELLA, A. and F. MISHKIN (1996): “Predicting U.S. recessions: financial variables as leading indicators”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Research paper No. 9609.
FAMA, E. (1981): “Stock returns, real activity, inflation, and money”, American Economic Review 71, 545–565.
FAMA, E. (1990): “Stock returns, expected returns, and real activity”, Journal of Finance 45, pp. 1089–1108.
HAMILTON, J. and WHITEMAN, C. (1985): “The observable implications of self-fulfilling expectations”, Journal of Monetary Economics 16, pp. 353–74.
MERIC, I. and G. MERIC (1997): “Co-movements of European equity markets before and after the 1987 crash”, Multinational Finance Journal 1, pp. 137–152.
MORCK, R., SHLEIFER, A. and R. VISHNY (1990): “The stock market and investment: is the market a sideshow?”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1, pp. 157–202.
NEWEY, W. and K. WEST (1987): “A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix”, Econometrica 55, pp. 703–708.
OERTMANN, P. and H. ZIMMERMANN (1998): “Systematische Risiken steigen”, Schweizer Bank 98/2, pp. 33–35.
PEIRO, A. (1996): “Stock prices, production and interest rates: comparison of three European countries with the USA”, Empirical Economics 2, pp. 221–234.
SCHWERT, W. (1990): “Stock returns and real activity: a century of evidence”, Journal of Finance 45, pp. 1237–1257.
SHAPIRO, M. (1988): “The stabilization of the U.S. economy: evidence from the stock market”, American Economic Review 78, pp. 1067–1079.
WU, C. and Y. SU (1998): “Dynamic relations among international stock markets”, International Review of Economics and Finance 7, pp. 63–84.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Binswanger, M. Does the stock market still lead real activity? — An investigation for the G-7 countries. Fin Mkts Portfolio Mgmt 15, 15–29 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-001-0102-6
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-001-0102-6