Skip to main content
Log in

Prospect theory and risk appetite: an application to traders’ strategies in the financial market

  • Regular Article
  • Published:
Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

According to behavioral finance theories, in this article we develop a dynamic model with heterogeneous traders, where the asset price is determined by the interaction among four different groups of agents: trend reversers, trend followers, risk averters and risk seekers. The main purpose of the study is centered on modeling and testing how the market efficiency changes along with the changes of agent’s behavior preference without exogenous influence. Combining with the assumption of risk appetite and prospect theory, focusing on analyzing the rules for selecting strategies, we establish a more reliable and comprehensive dynamic mechanism. In particular, our study suggests that diversified trading strategies will help to realize market efficiency.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Anderson TG, Bollerslev T (1997) Heterogeneous information arrivals and return volatility dynamics: uncovering the long-run in high frequency returns. J Finan 52: 975–1005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arthur WB (1994) Inductive reasoning and bounded rationality. Am Econ Rev 84: 406–418

    Google Scholar 

  • Arthur WB, Holland J, LeBaron B (1997) Asset pricing under endogenous expectations in an artificial stock market [A]. In: Arthur WB, Durlauf S, Lane D (eds) The economy as an evolving complex system [C]. Addison, Boston, pp 15–44

    Google Scholar 

  • Bollerslev T (1986) Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. J Econom 31: 307–327

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brock WA, Hommes CH (1997) A rational route to randomness. Econometrica 65: 1059–1160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brock WA, Hommes CH (1998) Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model. J Econ Dyn Control 22: 1235–1274

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Challet D, Zhang Y-C (1997) Emergence of cooperation and organization in an evolutionary game. Physica A 246: 407

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chan K, Fong W (2000) Trade size, order imbalance, and the volatility-volume relation. J Finan Econ 57: 247–273

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiaralla C, Dieci R, Gardini L (2002) Speculative behavior and complex asset price dynamics: a global analysis. J Econ Behav Organ 49: 173–197

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chordia T, Roll R, Subrahmanyam A (2002) Order imbalance, liquidity, and market returns. J Finan Econ 65: 111–130

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cornell B (1981) The relation between volume and price variability in futures markets. J Futures Mark 1: 303–316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Engle R (1982) Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with estimate of the variance of U.K. inflation. Econometrica 50: 987–1008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Farmer J, Joshi S (2002) The price dynamics of common trading strategies. J Econ Behav Organ 49: 149–171

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Follmer H (1974) Random economies with many interacting agents. J Math Econ 1: 51–62

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gallant AR, Rossi PE, Tauchen G (1992) Stock prices and volume. Rev Financ stud 5: 199–242

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Girma PB, Mougoue M (2002) An empirical examination of relationship between futures spreads volatility, volume and open interest. J Futures Mark 22: 1083–1102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harris L, Gurel E (1986) Price and volume effects associated with changes in the S&P 500 list: new evidence for the existence of price pressures. J Finance 41: 815–829

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hasbrouck J (1991) Measuring the information content of stock trades. J Financ 46: 179–207

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hommes CH (2002) Modeling the stylized facts in finance through simple nonlinear adaptive systems. Proc Natl Acad Sci 99(3): 7221–7228

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hommes CH (2006) Heterogeneous agent models in economics and finance. In: Judd KL, Tesfatsion L (eds) Handbook of computational economics, vol 2: Agent-based computational economics, Handbooks in economics 13. North-Holland, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones CM, Kaul G, Lipson ML (1994) Transaction, volume, and volatility. Rev Financ Stud 7: 631–651

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kahneman D, Tverskey A (1979) Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometric 23–291

  • Karpoff JM (1987) The relation between price changes and trading volume: a survey. J Financ Quant Analysis 22: 109–126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lo AW, Mamaysky H, Wang J (2004) Asset prices and trading volume under fixed transactions costs. J Polit Econ 112: 1054–1090

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lo AW, Wang J (2000) Trading volume: definitions, data analysis, and implications of portfolio theory. Rev Financ Stud 13: 257–300

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lux T, Marchesi M (1999) Scaling and criticality in a stochastic multi-agent model of a financial market. Nature 397(6719): 498–500

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Plerou V, Gopikrishnan P, Gabaix X, Stanley HE (2002) Quantifying stock-price response to demand fluctuations. Phys Rev E 66: 027104-0–027104-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shefrin H, Statman M (1985) The disposition to sell winners too early and ride losers too long: theory and evidence. J Finance XL: 777–792

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ying CC (1966) Stock market prices and volumes of sales. Econometrica 34: 676–686

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shi-Nan Cao.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Cao, SN., Deng, J. & Li, H. Prospect theory and risk appetite: an application to traders’ strategies in the financial market. J Econ Interact Coord 5, 249–259 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11403-010-0073-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11403-010-0073-7

Keywords

Navigation