Abstract
Purpose
The identification of marginal suppliers is a key element of consequential LCA. This study investigates how systematically the identification of marginal suppliers can be performed across different products, while maintaining consistent modeling choices. Some products relevant for the Belgian construction sector are taken as a case study.
Methods
To gain insight in the current practice of identifying marginal suppliers, 30 recent studies have been reviewed. Based on the findings of the review, a method was proposed to identify geographical market boundaries from trade data and sensitive suppliers from production data. Both retrospective and prospective approaches to anticipate the future effect of a change in demand were taken into account. The method was applied to compute both a retrospective and a prospective marginal supplier’s mix per product. Finally, the effect of the modeling choices on the size of geographical market boundaries and marginal mixes was estimated via regression analysis.
Results and discussion
The forecasts and marginal mixes obtained matched with those from the existing literature, although clear differences in results are observed between the retrospective and prospective approach. Deviations from default assumptions in LCA were observed as well, such as large regional geographical markets for cement and aggregates instead of local ones. The statistical sensitivity analysis showed that identifying geographical market boundaries has the largest effect on the final marginal mix and that these markets are relative stable over time.
Conclusions
The proposed method and corresponding sensitivity analysis is an attempt to gain insight into the effect of modeling choices in the context of the identification of marginal suppliers for consequential LCA. It can in principle be applied to any product for which trade and production data are available. The proposed method helps to identify marginal mixes on a consistent and transparent way, to improve the robustness of the results in future consequential LCAs.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Previous versions of this procedure included five-steps, see Weidema (2003). Here the latest published version available is used, which is also a synthesis of previous versions.
In this study and in the systematic review exercise, temporal market delimitation is not taken into account.
All calculation sheets can be obtained under request to the corresponding author
References
Alvarez-Gaitan JP, Short MD, Peters GM et al (2014) Consequential cradle-to-gate carbon footprint of water treatment chemicals using simple and complex marginal technologies for electricity supply. Int J Life Cycle Assess 19:1974–1984
Baeza R, Martelli M, Rilo R (2013) The cement sector: a strategic contributor to Europe’s future. The Boston Consulting Group, New York, p 51. https://cembureau.eu/media/1505/strategiccontributoreurope_bcg_2013-03-06.pdf. Accessed 21 Aug 2017
Baeza R, Marten I, Rilo R, Yanez M, and Wittum L (2008) Assessment of the impact of the 2013–2020 ETS proposal on the European cement industry. Final project report. Boston Consulting Group, New York, p 53
Bolscher H, Graichen V, Hay G, Healy S, Lenstra J, Meindert L, Regeczi D, von Schickfus M-T, Schumacher K, Timmons-Smakman F (2013) Carbon leakage evidence project. Factsheets for selected sectors. Rotterdam, Ecorys; European Commission, DG Climate Action, p 192. https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/ets/allowances/leakage/docs/cl_evidence_factsheets_en.pdf. Accessed 21 Aug 2017
Boyer M, Ponssard J (2013) Economic analysis of the European cement industry. Montréal, Canada
Brown TJ, Idoine NE, Bide T et al (2010) European mineral statistics 2004–2008. British Geological Survey, Nottingham
Brown TJ, Hobbs SF, Mills AJ et al (2015) European mineral statistics 2009–2013. British Geological Survey, Nottingham
Buongiorno J, Zhu S, Raunikar R, Prestemon J (2012) Outlook to 2060 for world forests and forest industries: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA assessment. Asheville, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Southern Research Station, p 132. https://permanent.access.gpo.gov/gpo30965/gtr_srs151.pdf. Accessed 21 Aug 2017
Buyle M, Braet J, Audenaert A, Debacker W (2016) Strategies for optimizing the environmental profile of dwellings in a Belgian context: a consequential versus an attributional approach. J Clean Prod. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.08.114
Capros P, De Vita A, Tasios N, Papadopoulos D, Siskos P, Apostolakmi E, Zampara M, Paroussos L, Fragiadakis K, Kouvaritakis N, Hoglund-Isaksson L, Winiwarter W, Purohit P, Bottcher H, Frank S, Havlik P, Gusti M, Witzke HP (2013) EU Energy, transport and GHG emissions: Trends to 2050, reference scenario 2013. European Commission, Luxembourg, p 176. https://doi.org/10.2833/17897. https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/trends_to_2050_update_2013.pdf
Cembureau (2012) Cements for a low-carbon Europe. Brussels, The European Cement Association, p 28. https://cembureau.eu/media/1501/cembureau_cementslowcarboneurope.pdf. Accessed 21 Aug 2017
CEPII (2016) BACI World trade database http://www.cepii.fr/cepii/en/bdd_modele/presentation.asp?id=1. Accessed 23 Dec 2016
Chalmers NG, Brander M, Revoredo-Giha C (2015) The implications of empirical and 1:1 substitution ratios for consequential LCA: using a 1% tax on whole milk as an illustrative example. Int J Life Cycle Assess 20:1268–1276
Cook G (2011) Investment, carbon pricing and leakage - a cement sector perspective. UK, Cambridge
Crossin E (2015) The greenhouse gas implications of using ground granulated blast furnace slag as a cement substitute. J Clean Prod 95:101–108
Curran M, Mann M, Norris G (2005) The international workshop on electricity data for life cycle inventories. J Clean Prod 13:853–862
Dalgaard R, Schmidt J, Flysjo A (2014) Generic model for calculating carbon footprint of milk using four different life cycle assessment modelling approaches. J Clean Prod 73:146–153
De Smet L, Bogaert S, Vandenbroucke D, Van Hyfte, A, De Coster K (2009) Onderzoek duurzame bevoorrading: gebruik lokale oppervlaktedelfstoffen of import van minerale grondstoffen [research sustainable supply: use of local surface minerals or import of mineral raw materials]. Brussels, Departement Leefmilieu Natuur en Energie - afdeling Land en Bodembescherming Ondergrond Natuurlijke Rijkdommen. p 190. http://www.ebl.vlaanderen.be/publications/documents/64687. Accessed 21 Aug 2017
Deng Y, Tian Y (2015) Assessing the environmental impact of flax fibre reinforced polymer composite from a consequential life cycle assessment perspective. Sustainability 7:11462–11483
Devogelaer D, and Gusbin D (2014) Het Belgische energiesysteem in 2050: Waar naartoe? - Beschrijving van een Referentiescenario voor België [The Belgian energy system in 2050: where to go?- Description of a reference scenario for Belgium]. Brussels, Federal Planning Bureau, p 125. http://www.plan.be/publications/publication-1388-nlhet+belgische+energiesysteem+in+2050+waar+naartoe+beschrijving+van+een+referentiescenario+voor+belgie. Accessed 21 Aug 2017
Devogelaer D, and Gusbin D (2015) 2030 climate and energy framework for Belgium: impact assessment of a selection of policy scenarios up to 2050. Brussels, Federal Planning Bureau, p 89. http://www.plan.be/admin/uploaded/201504270958240.WP_1503_10941.pdf. Accessed 21 Aug 2017
Earles JM, Halog A (2011) Consequential life cycle assessment: a review. Int J Life Cycle Assess 16:445–453
Ekvall T, Weidema BPB (2004) System boundaries and input data in consequential life cycle inventory analysis. Int J Life Cycle Assess 9:161–171
ENTSO-E (2016) Statistical database https://www.entsoe.eu/data/data-portal/Pages/default.aspx. Accessed 23 Dec 2016
Eriksson LO, Gustavsson L, Hänninen R et al (2012) Climate change mitigation through increased wood use in the European construction sector-towards an integrated modelling framework. Eur J For Res 131:131–144
Escobar N, Ribal J, Clemente G, Sanjuán N (2014) Consequential LCA of two alternative systems for biodiesel consumption in Spain, considering uncertainty. J Clean Prod 79:61–73
FAO (2012) The Russian Federation Forest Sector: Outlook Study to 2030. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, p 93. http://www.fao.org/docrep/016/i3020e/i3020e00.pdf. Accessed 21 Aug 2017
FAO (2016) FAOSTAT database. In: Database. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home. Accessed 22 Dec 2016
FIM Services Limited (2015) Global Timber Outlook. May 2015. Burford, United Kingdom
Firoz AS (2014) Long term perspectives for Indian steel industry. New Delhi, Government of India Ministry of Steel, p 100. https://mme.iitm.ac.in/shukla/LongTermPerspectives(3).pdf. Accessed 21 Aug 2017
FOA (2009) State of the World’s forests 2009. Rome, Food and Agriculture Organization, p 168. http://www.fao.org/3/a-i0350e.pdf. Accessed 21 Aug 2017
Global Cement (2015) Turkey’s cement industry: Onwards and upwards http://www.globalcement.com/magazine/articles/929-turkeys-cement-industry-onwards-and-upwards. Accessed 26 Jan 2016
Hänninen R, Hetemäki L, Hurmekoski E Mutanen A, Nayha A, Forsstrom J, Viitanen J, Koljonen T (2014) European Forest industry and Forest bioenergy outlook up to 2050: a synthesis. Helsinki, Finland, leen/Fibic Research Report no D 1.1.1. http://jukuri.luke.fi/handle/10024/504484. Accessed 21 Aug 2017
HeidelbergCement (2016) HeidelbergCement 2015 Trading Statement https://www.heidelbergcement.com/en/system/files_force/assets/document/7a/c0/fy_2015_results.pdf?download=1. Accessed 15 Mar 2017
Hetemäki L (2014) Future of the European Forest-based sector: structural changes Towords bioeconomy. Joensuu, European Forest Institute, p 110. http://www.efi.int/files/attachments/publications/efi_wsctu_6_2014.pdf
Hurmekoski E (2016) Long-term outlook for wood construction in Europe. Dissertationes Forestales 211. University of Eastern Finland, p 57. http://dx.doi.org/10.14214/df.211. http://www.dissertationesforestales.fi/pdf/article1994.pdf
IEA (2015a) Energy statistics of non-OECD countries. 2015 Edition. Paris, International Energy Agency. https://doi.org/10.1787/energy_stats_oecd-2015-en
IEA (2015b) World energy outlook 2015. Paris, International Energy Agency, p 726. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/weo2015/
IHS Economics (2013) Global construction outlook: executive outlook. Lexington, IHS Economics, p 30
Ito K, Morita Y, Yanagisawa A, Suehiro S, Komiyama R, Shen Z (2006) Japan long-term energy outlook a projection up to 2030 under environmental constraints and changing energy markets. Tokyo, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, p 70. http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/en/data/pdf/342.pdf
Kamp B, Vanthournout E, Couderé K, Gregoor C (2006) Analyse van vraag naar oppervlaktedelfstoffen in Vlaanderen [Analysis of demand for surface minerals in Flanders]. Brussels, ANRE / ALBON, p 72. http://www.ebl.vlaanderen.be/publications/documents/61729
LNA-ALBON (2014) 2de Algemeen Oppervlaktedelfstoffenplan [2nd General plan for surface materials]. Brussels, Departement Leefmilieu Natuur en Energie - afdeling Land en Bodembescherming Ondergrond Natuurlijke Rijkdommen, p 248
Lund H, Mathiesen BV, Christensen P, Schmidt JH (2010) Energy system analysis of marginal electricity supply in consequential LCA. Int J Life Cycle Assess 15:260–271
Manninen H (2014) Long-term outlook for engineered wood products in Europe Technical Report 91. Joensuu, European Forest Institute, p 46. http://www.efi.int/files/attachments/publications/efi_tr_91_2014_manninen.pdf. Accessed 21 Aug 2017]
Mazerolle M (2006) Improving data analysis in herpetology: using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) to assess the strength of biological hypotheses. Amphibia-Reptilia 27:169–180
Menten F, Tchung-Ming S, Lorne D, Bouvart F (2015) Lessons from the use of a long-term energy model for consequential life cycle assessment: the BTL case. Renew Sust Energ Rev 43:942–960
OECD (2015) Future investment projects in the global steel industry and implications for the balance of steelmaking processes. OECD Sci Technol Ind Policy Pap 18:38. doi:10.1787/5js65x46nxhj-en. http://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?cote=DSTI/SU/SC(2014)16/FINAL&docLanguage=En. Accessed 21 Aug 2017
Pizzol M, Scotti M (2017) Identifying marginal suppliers of wood products via trade network analysis. Int J Life Cycle Assess 22:1146–1158
Prateep Na Talang R, Pizzol M, Sirivithayapakorn S (2016) Comparative life cycle assessment of fired brick production in Thailand. Int J Life Cycle Assess. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11367-016-1197-3
Rajagopal D (2017) A step towards a general framework for consequential life cycle assessment. J Ind Ecol 21(2):261–271
Rodríguez G (2007) Lecture notes on generalized linear models. http://data.princeton.edu/wws509/notes/. Accessed 20 Jan 2017
Sandin G, Peters GM, Svanström M (2013) Moving down the cause-effect chain of water and land use impacts: an LCA case study of textile fibres. Resour Conserv Recycl 73:104–113
Schmidt JH (2015) Life cycle assessment of five vegetable oils. J Clean Prod 87:130–138
Schmidt JH, Thrane M (2009) Life cycle assessment of aluminium production in new Alcoa smelter in Greenland. Aalborg, 2.-0 LCA consultants; Aalborg University, p 202. http://lca-net.com/publications/show/life-cycle-assessment-aluminium-production-new-alcoa-smelter-greenland/
Sevigné-Itoiz E, Gasol CM, Rieradevall J, Gabarrell X (2015) Contribution of plastic waste recovery to greenhouse gas (GHG) savings in Spain. Waste Manag 46:557–567
Styles D, Gibbons J, Williams AP et al (2015) Consequential life cycle assessment of biogas, biofuel and biomass energy options within an arable crop rotation. GCB Bioenergy 7:1305–1320
Supekar SD, Skerlos SJ (2014) Market-driven emissions from recovery of carbon dioxide gas. Environ Sci Technol 48:14615–14623
Taylor LE, Brown TJ, Lusty PAJ et al (2006) European mineral statistics 2000–2004. Keyworth, Nottingham
Tonini D, Hamelin L, Alvarado-Morales M, Astrup TF (2016) GHG emission factors for bioelectricity, biomethane, and bioethanol quantified for 24 biomass substrates with consequential life-cycle assessment. Bioresour Technol 208:123–133
Turk J, Cotič Z, Mladenovič A, Šajna A (2015) Environmental evaluation of green concretes versus conventional concrete by means of LCA. Waste Manag 45:194–205
U.S. Geological Survey (2016) Minerals Yearbook-Cement https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/cement/index.html#myb. Accessed 23 Dec 2016
UNECE/FAO (2011) The European forest sector outlook study II -2010-2030. Geneva, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe/ Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, p 111. https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/timber/publications/sp-28.pdf. Accessed 21 Aug 2017
UNECE/FAO (2012) The North American Forest Sector Outlook Study. 2006-2030. Geneva, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe/ Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, p 68
UNECE/FAO (2014) Competitiveness of the European forest sector - a contribution to EFSOS II. Geneva timber and forest discussion paper 62. Geneva, Switserland
United Nations (2016) UN Comtrade Database http://comtrade.un.org/. Accessed 17 Mar 2016
USGS (2014) Mineral commodity summaries. Cement, U.S. Geological Survey. http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/cement/
Van Ruijven BJ, Van Vuuren DP, Boskaljon W et al (2016) Long-term model-based projections of energy use and CO2 emissions from the global steel and cement industries. Resour Conserv Recycl 112:15–36
Vieira PS, Horvath A (2008) Assessing the end-of-life impacts of buildings. Environ Sci Technol 42:4663–4669
Weidema BP (2003) Environmental Project No. 863. Market information in life cycle assessment. Copenhagen, Danish Environmental Protection Agency, p 147. http://www2.mst.dk/Udgiv/publications/2003/87-7972-991-6/pdf/87-7972-992-4.pdf. Accessed 21 Aug 2017
Weidema BP (2004) Geographical, technological and temporal delimitation in LCA. UMIP 2003 method. Environmental News No. 74 2004. Kopenhagen, The Danish Environmental Protection Agency, p 69. http://www2.mst.dk/Udgiv/Publications/2004/87-7614-305-8/pdf/87-7614-306-6.PDF. Accessed 21 Aug 2017
Weidema BP, Frees N, Nielsen A-M (1999) Marginal production technologies for life cycle inventories. Int J Life Cycle Assess 4:48–56
Weidema BP, Ekvall T, Heijungs R (2009) Guidelines for application of deepened and broadened LCA. Deliverable D18 of work package 5 of the CALCAS project. Rome, ENEA, The Italian National Agency on new Technologies, Energy and the Environment. http://www.leidenuniv.nl/cml/ssp/publications/calcas_report_d18.pdf. Accessed 21 Aug 2017
Weidema BP, Bauer C, Hischier R et al (2013) Overview and methodology. Data quality guideline for the ecoinvent database version 3. St. Gallen, Switserland
World Steel Association (2006) Steel statistical yearbook 2006. Brussels, Belgium
World Steel Association (2015a) Global steel market outlook OECD steel committee meeting. OECD Steel Committee Meeting Paris, 11 - 12 May 2015. Paris, World Steel Association, p 18
World Steel Association (2015b) Steel statistical yearbook 2015. Brussels, World Steel Association, p 121. https://www.worldsteel.org/en/dam/jcr:3e501c1b-6bf1-4b31-8503-a2e52431e0bf/Steel+Statistical+Yearbook+2015+r3.pdf. Accessed 21 Aug 2017
Zamagni A, Guinée J, Heijungs R et al (2012) Lights and shadows in consequential LCA. Int J Life Cycle Assess 17:904–918
Zink T, Maker F, Geyer R et al (2014) Comparative life cycle assessment of smartphone reuse: repurposing vs. refurbishment. Int J Life Cycle Assess 19:1099–1109
Zweig M, Agrawal A, Stall B, Bremer C, Mangers P, Beifus A, and Chauhan M (2016) Globalize or customize: finding the right balance. Global steel 2015–2016. London, Ernst & Young Global Limited, p 32. http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-global-steel-2015-2016/$FILE/EY-global-steel-2015-2016.pdf. Accessed 21 Aug 2017
Acknowledgements
Thanks to Erik Fransen for providing insightful and useful comments on the statistical analysis. We acknowledge three anonymous reviewers for the constructive suggestions and the stimulating discussion. This work was funded by the travel grant no V407616N of the Research Foundation - Flanders (FWO).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Responsible editor: Yi Yang
Electronic Supplementary Material
Following annexes are included as Electronic Supplementary Material. An example of the calculation files is included in Annex 6 (sawnwood – retrospective approach). All calculation sheets can be obtained under request to the corresponding author.
ESM 1
(ZIP 61.4 MB)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Buyle, M., Pizzol, M. & Audenaert, A. Identifying marginal suppliers of construction materials: consistent modeling and sensitivity analysis on a Belgian case. Int J Life Cycle Assess 23, 1624–1640 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11367-017-1389-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11367-017-1389-5