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Ontological Security Dilemma: a Practical Model of Relational Deterrence

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Abstract

This paper complicates the classic security dilemma by considering the notions of ontological security and relational deterrence. It studies how the ontological security dilemma has emerged between the US, China, and Taiwan from the relational perspective and how these spiral chains will further develop in the future. The paper incurs the literature on relational analysis to expound on how different ontological security concerns allude to relational deterrence between the three actors. Taiwan’s separatism is more of a threat to China’s relational self than to physical security because the separatist does not belong to any already agreed relationship. A geometric model and a few simulations yield three unconventional findings. 1) The less advantaged the US military is over China, the less likely armed unification will occur. 2) The US anti-Chinese tendency is irrelevant in determining the probability of armed unification. 3) What may escalate the spiral are China’s anti-Taiwan independence and Taiwan’s anti-unification. Case sensitivity indicates the ontological sensibilities of a security dilemma.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

    Chih-yu Shih

  2. Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA

    Jason Luo

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Shih, Cy., Luo, J. Ontological Security Dilemma: a Practical Model of Relational Deterrence. J OF CHIN POLIT SCI (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-023-09854-2

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