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Sino-US Competition in the South China Sea: Power, Rules and Legitimacy

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Abstract

The increasing competition between China and the United States in the South China Sea necessitates that some important issues be resolved. What are China and the US fighting over? What is causing the two sides to increasingly diverge on this issue since 2009? This article attempts to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the three major factors—third parties, disputes over maritime rules, and power competition—to clarify the main mechanisms they have played in this competition since 2009, to assess the relationship among the factors, and to explore basic trends in the long-term China–US competition over the South China Sea. The main findings are that third-party factors, disputes over maritime rules, and power competition, respectively, have the most powerful explanatory power in 2009–2012, 2013–2016, and 2017 to 2020, and that the current China–US stalemate in the South China Sea is the result of the long-term China–US interactions over these three factors, which have different importance rankings in different periods.

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Notes

  1. The main reason for China’s construction on the islands and reefs in the South China Sea is to check other claimants’ activities. In my interviews, many Chinese officers related to this issue are confused as to why the US is so dissatisfied.

  2. Advance Policy Questions for Admiral Philip Davidson, USN Expected Nominee for Commander, U.S. Pacific Command,https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Davidson_APQs_04-17-18.pdf,p.18.

  3. United States Representative to the United Nations, Notes to Secretary-General United Nations, June 1, 2020, https://usun.usmission.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/296/200602_KDC_ChinasUnlawful.pdf.

  4. U.S. Department of States, U.S. Position on Maritime Claims in the South China Sea, July 13, 2020, https://www.state.gov/u-s-position-on-maritime-claims-in-the-south-china-sea.

  5. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian’s Regular Press Conference on July 14, 2020, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/t1797731.shtml.

  6. Lecture and conversation recorded by author, see the news at, http://www.iiss.pku.edu.cn/dynamic/inform/3845.html.

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  1. Center for Maritime Strategy Studies, Peking University, Beijing, China

    Bo Hu

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Hu, B. Sino-US Competition in the South China Sea: Power, Rules and Legitimacy. J OF CHIN POLIT SCI 26, 485–504 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-020-09716-1

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