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Can China’s Economic Statecraft Win Soft Power in Africa? Unpacking Trade, Investment and Aid

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Abstract

Boosting China’s soft power is an important goal of Chinese economic statecraft in Africa. However, African opinions of China – in particular those of ordinary people – are understudied, and existing evidence suggests African viewpoints on China are highly varied and polarized. On the one hand, China’s growing economic linkages are welcomed by Africans as an important alternative to traditional partners, and a vital source of funding for development needs. On the other hand, Africans see China as a source of poor-quality products and an exploitative threat to local markets. How can scholars understand these polarized opinions on China? Using data from the Afrobarometer Round 6 survey (2016), this article aims to untangle African perceptions of Chinese economic engagement through unpacking the distinctive effects of China’s three tools of economic statecraft: trade, foreign direct investment, and aid. Analyses of Chinese influence frequently package these three modes of engagement together, but in practice they have very different consequences for China’s soft power. Negative perceptions of China among African citizens are primarily associated with trade-related issues. China’s investment and aid, on the other hand, generally make a positive contribution to Chinese soft power in Africa. By highlighting the contrasting effects of different instruments of economic engagement, this analysis contributes insight into Sino-African relations and China’s wider economic diplomacy.

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Notes

  1. Speech at the opening of the African Union headquarters. See William Wallis. 2012. China Puts Space-age Seal on African Role. Financial Times. 31 January. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/86cbd2ba-4b60-11e1-a325-00144feabdc0?mhq5j=e5 on 13 November 2018.

  2. Comments made in 2007 while Michael Sata was leader of the opposition party Patriotic Front. See Telegraph. 2014. Michael Sata – Obituary. 29 October. Retrieved from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/11195960/Michael-Sata-obituary.html on 10 July 2018.

  3. Xinhua. 2015. Full Text: China’s second Africa policy paper. 4 December. Retrieved from http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-12/04/c_134886545.htm on 1 June 2018.

  4. See e.g. Manji and Marks [53].

  5. Other positive instruments, such as non-devaluation of the renminbi during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, are sometimes employed [18].

  6. Of course, China’s activities in Africa also have economic motivations, and many analyses focus on Africa’s economic importance to China, in particular as a source of natural resources. However, Africa represents a very small proportion of Chinese global economic activity. In 2016 just 4% of Chinese trade (imports plus exports) was with Africa (see International Trade Map database. Retreived from https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx on 4 October 2018.) In the same year, just 1% of Chinese foreign direct investment went to Africa (see Chinese official statistics. Retrieved from http://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=C01 on 4 October 2018). In reality, Africa is likely of more geopolitical and strategic importance to China than economic importance (although for Africa, China is of course economically extremely significant). Moreover, where the state does have an economic interest it is in long-term stable development, not short-term profit (see China.org.cn. 2003. China’s Africa Policy. December 10. Retrieved from http://www.china.org.cn/english/features/China-Africa/82055.htm). On balance, therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that the interests of the principal and agents are divergent.

  7. To be classed as ODA, financial flows must “have as their main objective the promotion of the economic development and welfare of developing countries”. Loans must be concessional and have a grant element of at least 25%. See OECD. 2003. Official Development Assistance. 28 August. Retrieved from http://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=6043 on 12 November 2018.

  8. See Bräutigam [8] for a detailed comparison of Chinese and OECD definitions of aid.

  9. For an overview of the historical evolution of Chinese aid modalities and sectors in Africa see Morgan and Zheng [57].

  10. These figures include only financial flows that meet the OECD’s definition of Official Development Assistance (ODA).

  11. See A. Li [45]; and Shen and Fan [71] for a detailed overview of Chinese medical teams.

  12. These figures refer to Chinese Official Finance projects in Africa that AidData list as “recommended for research”, and which contain details of an implementing organization.

  13. In addition to Chinese aid contracts, these firms also implement contracts from other aid donors such as the World Bank, as well as projects funded by local governments.

  14. A full list of functions is available from the SASAC website. See SASAC. 2018. What We Do. 17 July 2018. Retrieved from http://en.sasac.gov.cn/2018/07/17/c_7.htm on 13 November 2018.

  15. Although some Chinese officially financed infrastructure construction in Africa is aid – i.e. concessional in nature – much is funded by commercial investments from the China Development Bank (CBD) and other state financial apparatuses. See Dreher et al. [21] for an overview of the various classifications of Chinese official finance.

  16. Library of Congress. 2014. China: Rules Revised to Facilitate Overseas Investments. 31 October. Retrieved from http://www.loc.gov/law/foreign-news/article/china-rules-revised-to-facilitate-overseas-investments/ on November 13 2018.

  17. For example, at the encouragement of both the local and Chinese government, Sinhohydro, has opened their Kafue Gorge Lower project to the local community and offers loans to help local people unaffiliated with the company to study at the school. Author interview with representative of PowerChina (parent company of Sinohydro), Lusaka, June 2018.

  18. Author interviews with a diplomat at the Chinese Embassy, Lilongwe; and representative of the Chinese ECC, Lusaka, June 2018.

  19. PRC State Council. 2013. White Paper on China-Africa Economic and Trade Cooperation. 29 August. Retrieved from http://www.china.org.cn/government/whitepaper/node_7189938.htm on November 13 2018.

  20. Nan, Z. 2015. China to Stop Counterfeits from Being Exported. China Daily. 10 November. Retrieved from http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2015-11/10/content_22415380.htm on 1 October 2018.

  21. The data and codebook can be downloaded from the Afrobarometer website. See Afrobarometer. Merged Data. Retrieved from http://afrobarometer.org/data/merged-data on 1 July 2017.

  22. PEW. 2017. Opinion of China. Retrieved from http://www.pewglobal.org/database/indicator/24/survey/19/map/ on 13 August 2018.

  23. Author interview with official in the Investment Promotions Office, Zambian Development Agency, Lusaka, June 2018.

  24. Kaiman, J. 2014. China-Africa Relations Hurt by Bad Chinese Behaviour, Says Ambassador. The Guardian. 17 July. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/17/chinese-ambassador-tanzania-china-africa-relationship-ivory-smuggling-counterfeit on November 13 2018.

  25. Jocelyne, S. 2013. Counterfeit Drugs Raise Africa’s Temperature. Africa Renewal. May. Retrieved from http://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/may-2013/counterfeit-drugs-raise-africa%E2%80%99s-temperature on 1 September 2018.

  26. Thomas, S. 2015. Fake goods dumped in Africa are grave threat. DispatchLive. 22 July. Retrieved from https://www.dispatchlive.co.za/news/opinion/2015-07-22-fake-goods-dumped-in-africa-are-grave-threat/ on 1 September 2018.

  27. Kuo, L. 2017. The best days of selling cheap Chinese goods in Africa are over. Quartz. 3 May. Retrieved from https://qz.com/africa/950377/the-best-days-of-selling-cheap-chinese-goods-in-africa-are-over/ on 3 May 2017.

  28. However, this trend may reverse as wages rise in China and manufacturing moves from “made in China” and “sold in Africa” to “made in Africa”. In Ethiopia, for example, Chinese-invested manufacturers in Chinese-built Special Economic Zones (SEZs) have become significant job creators. For this reason, public opinions on China’s impact on jobs may change in future.

  29. As one local consultant in Lilongwe, Malawi, put it; after China-Malawi trade accelerated following the establishment of diplomatic relations in 2008, there was a perception that China was turning Malawi into a “dumping ground” for cheap Chinese products. Author interview, Lilongwe, June 2018.

  30. Muhumza, R. 2017. Hundreds protest in Uganda capital against Chinese traders. AP. April 19. Retrieved from https://apnews.com/f1fa7c0ca5ca44f493d6912c42fe8e2b/hundreds-protest-uganda-capital-against-chinese-traders on 13 November 2018.

  31. For example, difficult conditions and worker-management clashes at the Chambishi coal mine in Zambia, owned by a subsidiary of China Nonferrous Metal Mining (Group) Co. Ltd. (CNMC), a central SOE – were used by then-opposition leader Michael Sata in Zambia to whip up anti-Chinese fervor in the 2006 general election (Sata later went on to win the 2011 general election on a similarly anti-China platform) ([31], 408).

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Morgan, P. Can China’s Economic Statecraft Win Soft Power in Africa? Unpacking Trade, Investment and Aid. J OF CHIN POLIT SCI 24, 387–409 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-018-09592-w

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