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Wake Up to Reality: Taiwan, the Chinese Mainland and Peace Across the Taiwan Strait

Journal of Chinese Political Science volume 18, pages 1–20 (2013)Cite this article

Abstract

Relations between the Republic of China (ROC or Taiwan) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC or Chinese mainland) have improved significantly since 2008. However, this study suggests that it will be difficult for the two sides to sustain the momentum in cross-strait relations unless Beijing—and to some extent Taipei—begin to recalibrate their relationship in a more pragmatic way and adopt some new thinking on the concepts of sovereignty and the political status of the ROC. In short, they need to figure out a way to acknowledge the fact that both the ROC and PRC exist.

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Fig. 1

Notes

  1. As Richard Bush observed, “for more than a decade before May 2008, the story [of cross-strait relations] was one of a corrosive political dynamic dominated by deepening mutual suspicion and aggravated by misperceptions and politics. See Richard Bush, “Taiwan and East Asian Security,” Orbis, Volume 55, Number 2, Spring 2011, p.275.

  2. See Dennis V. Hickey, "Reading China's 'Peace' as "Sugar Coated Poison: Interview with President Chen Shui-bian," Chicago Tribune, January 6, 2008, Section 2, p.4.

  3. Ibid.

  4. Ibid.

  5. See Bush [2]

  6. Jane Macartney, “Ma Ying-jeou on the Wisdom of Improved Relations Between China and Taiwan,” The Times Online (London), August 30, 2008 on the www at http://wwww.timeonline.co.uk.

  7. Y.F. Low, “President Urges China to Stop Isolating Taiwan,” Central News Agency, July 3, 2008, in BBC Worldwide Monitoring, July 3, 2008, in Lexis/Nexis.

  8. See Keith Bradsher and Edward Wong, “Taiwan Leader Outlines His Policy Toward China,” New York Times, June 19, 2008, on the world wide web at http://www.nytimes.com.

  9. See. “Backgrounder: ‘1992 Consensus’ on ‘One China Principle,’ Xinhua News Service (Beijing), China Daily, October 13, 2004 on the world wide web at http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-10/13/content_382076.htm.

  10. See “Taipei, Beijing Show Willingness to Discuss ’92 Consensus,” China Post August 13, 2010, on the world wide web at www.chinapost.com.tw/.

  11. See Ibid.

  12. See Vincent Y. Chao, “So-Called ‘1992 Consensus’ A Fabrication: Lee,” Taipei Times, December 28, 2010, p.1.

  13. Ibid.

  14. See “Ma Ying-Jeou: The ROC Includes China,” Taiwan Communiqué, February-March, 2011, p.6.

  15. See Vincent Y. Chao, “New Cross-Strait Framework Needed, Hsieh Says,” Taipei Times, January 11, 2011, p.1.

  16. See Vincent Y. Chao, “Beijing Says ‘1992 Consensus’ is an ‘Objective Truth,’” Taipei Times, January 13, 2011, p.3.

  17. See Vincent Y. Chao, “Su Proposes Consensus,” Taipei Times, February 17, 2011, p.3

  18. See “Consensus Cannot Focus on One-China Issue,” China Post, February 18, 2011 on the world wide web at www.chinapost.com.tw/

  19. Paul Mozur and Jenny W. Hsu, “Taiwan Opposition Leader Advocates Dumping Old “Consensus” on China,” Wall Street Journal, China Real Time Report, September 6, 2001 on the world wide web at http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2011/09/06/taiwan-opposition-leader-advocates-dumping-old-1992-consensus-on-china/

  20. See Su Chi, “The 1992 Consensus was Not Conjured from Air,” Want China Times, August 27, 2011 on the world wide web at http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20110827000032&cid=1703

  21. Shirley Kan, China/Taiwan: Evolution of the ‘One China’ Policy—Key Statements from Washington, Beijing and Taipei, CRS Report for Congress, p.CRS-65.

  22. Ibid, p.CRS-75.

  23. See Loa Iok-sin, “Ma Repeats ‘Region to Region’ Comment,” Taipei Times, December 22, 2008, p.3, and Ko Shu-Ling, “Ma Refers to China as ROC Territory in Magazine Interview,” Taipei Times, October 8, 2008, p.3.

  24. See “’State to State’ Theory is Dead, Ma Says,” Taipei Times, September 4, 2008, p.1.

  25. Email exchange with Professor Su Chi, Tuesday, August 23, 2011 12:27 AM.

  26. See “SEF Confirms Existence of ‘1992 Consensus,’” Focus Taiwan News Channel, August 24, 2011 on the world wide web at http://focustaiwan. tw/ShowNews/WebNews_Detail.aspx?Type = aIPL&ID = 201108240043

  27. See Mo Yan-chih, “Ma Ying-Jeou Warns Against Dropping ‘1992 Consensus,’” Taipei Times, August 24, 2011, p.1

  28. The World Health Assembly is the steering body of the World Health Organization. Leaked US diplomatic cables confirm that the PRC government changed its position toward the WHO issue “because both sides now agreed to oppose Taiwan independence and uphold the ‘1992 consensus.’” See Shih Hsiu-Chuan, “Leaked Cables Cast Doubt on President’s WHA Claims,” Taipei Times, September 8, 2001, p.1, on the world wide web at http://www.taipeitimes.com.tw.

  29. See Frank Ching, “Beijing in Risky Business of Weakening Taiwan,” New Straits Times (Malaysia), March 24, 2011, in Lexis /Nexis.

  30. As Lin Yu-fang, a KMT lawmaker observed, “the biggest issue for President Ma when he assumed office was to repair Taiwan-US relations to rebuild mutual trust.” See Shih Hsiu-Chuan, “’No Surprises’ Approach Outlined: Wikileaks,” Taipei Times, June 19, 2011, p.1, on the world wide web at http://www.taipeitimes.com

  31. See “Bush Urges Hu to Reach Out to Taiwan,” Taipei Times, March 28, 2008, p.1, on the world wide web at http://www.taipeitimes.com.tw.

  32. See Dimitri Bruyas, “US Won’t Play Mediator in Cross-Strait Issue: AIT Head,” China Post, March 29, 2008, on the world wide web at http://www.chinapost.com.tw.

  33. See Mo Yan-chih, “Ma Ying-Jeou Warns Against Dropping ‘1992 Consensus.’”

  34. Vincent Y. Chao, “Beijing Says ‘1992 Consensus’ is an ‘Objective Truth,’” Taipei Times, January 13, 2011, p.3.

  35. See “Poll Shows Support for ‘1992 Consensus,’ MAC,” China Post, September 26, 2011 on the world wide web at http://www.chinapost.com.tw.

  36. For more information, see Saunders and Kastner [7].

  37. For a review of some of the benefits from any sort of agreement see Ibid, pp.103–107.

  38. Ibid., p.95.

  39. “HK Magazine Article on Cautious Optimism in New Era of Cross-Strait Relations,” Zhongguo pinglun (China Review), December 5, 2005, 15, in BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific, December 22, 2005, http://www.lexisnexis.com.

  40. President Hu Jintao as quoted in Shiquan [8]

  41. See Michael Schuman, “Strait Talker,” Time, March 13, 2008, http://www.time.com.

  42. Shih Hsiu-chuan, “Hu Jintao Eager for Taiwan Legacy,” Taipei Times, June 12, 2011, p.1, on world wide web at http://www.taipeitimes.com.tw.

  43. Alan Fong, “Beijing Allows for ‘Very Broad” One China Policy: WikiLeaks,” China Post, December 1, 2010 on the world wide web at http://www.chinapost.com.tw.

  44. See “United Daily News: Peace Accord as an Interim,” Focus Taiwan News Channel, June 23, 2011, on the www at http://focustaiwan.tw/ShowNews/WebNews_Detail.aspx?Type+aOPN&ID+201106230008

  45. Ibid.

  46. Author’s interview with Professor Su Chi, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC, May 27, 2011.

  47. Ng Yuzin Chiautong, The Confirmation of Taiwanese National Sovereignty, (Taipei: World United Formosans for Independence, December 7, 2007), on the world wide web at http://www.wufi.org.tw/dbsql/showemsg.php?id+115.

  48. See Taiwan Affairs Office and Information Office, The Taiwan Question and the Reunification of China, (Beijing: State Council, August 1993), on the world wide web at http://www.china.org.cn/e-white/taiwan/index.htm.

  49. Ibid.

  50. See Taiwan Affairs Office and Information Office of the State Council, The One-China Principle and the Taiwan Issue, (Beijing: Taiwan Affairs Office, February 2000), on the world wide web at http://ww.gov.cn/english/official/2005-07/27/content17613.htm.

  51. See “Tsai Blasted for ROC Legitimacy Remark,” China Post, May 27, 2010 on the world wide web at www.chinapost.com.tw/. For details on Tsai’s latest position—namely, that “Taiwan is the ROC and the ROC is Taiwan,” see Mo Yan-chih and Jake Chung, “Tsai Affirms Recognition of ROC,” Taipei Times, October 10, 2011, p.1 on the world wide web at http://www.taipeitimes.com.

  52. See “ROC Not an Exile Government, Wu Says,” Taipei Times, October 12, 2011, p.1, on the world wide web at http://www.taipeitimes.com.

  53. See Song Tiongjong, Taiwan Should Abandon Its Fictitious Territorial Claim and Become a Sovereign State, (Taipei, WUFI, May 18, 1998), on the world wide web at http://www.wufi.org.tw.eng/ficterri.thm. Translated by Li Thian-hok.

  54. Author’s interview with Lee Teng-hui, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC, November 25, 2005.

  55. See Loa Iok-sin, “Ma Repeats ‘Region to Region’ Comment,” Taipei Times, December 22, 2008, p.3,

  56. See Song Tiongjong, Taiwan Should Abandon Its Fictitious Territorial Claim and Become a Sovereign State.

  57. See Richard C. Bush, The Significance of the ROC for Cross-Strait Relations, The Brookings Institution, Presented at a Symposium on “The Dawn of Modern China,” May 20, 2011, on the world wide web at http://www.brookings.edu/speeches/2011/0520_china_bush.aspx.

  58. The US Embassy followed the ROC government on this journey. For more information, see Office of the Historian, US Department of State, A Guide to the United States’ History of Recognition, Diplomatic and Consular Relations, By Country, Since 1776: China, on the world wide web at http://history.state.gov/countries/china.

  59. Author’s interview with Ambassador Bruce J.D. Linghu, Director-General of the ROC Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Department of North American Affairs, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC, May 31, 2011.

  60. Liu Shaoqi was arrested during the Cultural Revolution and died as a prisoner in 1969. He appeared to have made a serious mistake when he thought that he was actually the leader of the PRC. See Li Zhisui, The Private Life of Chairman Mao (New York: Random House, 1994).

  61. Chiang “resigned” as ROC president on January 21, 1949, and Li Zongren, who had been elected vice president by the National Assembly in 1948 over Chiang’s objections, became “acting president.” Li fled to America in November 1949, and defected to the PRC in 1965. Chiang reassumed the presidency of the ROC on March 1, 1950. He was “reelected” president in 1954, 1960, 1966 and 1972, and died on April 5, 1975.

  62. See Hickey [3]

  63. For example, when responding to reports that the Obama administration had decided against selling F-16 C/D warplanes to Taiwan, Representative John Cornyn (R.-Texas) said “the decision would be a slap in the face to strong ally Taiwan.” See Matthew Pennington, “US to Upgrade Taiwan F-16s, Not Sell New Ones,” Forbes, September 19, 2011 on the world wide web at http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2011/09/19/general-us-us-taiwan_8686879.html.

  64. The US recognized the ROC from 1913 to 1979.

  65. Taipei uses designations other than the ROC to participate in these IGOs.

  66. See Richard C. Bush, The Significance of the ROC for Cross-Strait Relations.

  67. See US Department of State, Background Notes: Taiwan, on the world wide web at http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35855.htm.

  68. The USSR approved the Cairo Declaration on December 5, 1943, and on July 26, 1945, the leaders of the US, ROC, and UK declared in the Potsdam Proclamation that “the terms of the Cairo Declaration shall be carried out.”

  69. See “President’s News Conference of December 22, 1949,” Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States: Harry S. Truman, 1949, (Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 1964), p.586.

  70. See “Memorandum of Conversation, by the Secretary of State, January 5, 1950,” in US Department of State, Foreign Relations of the United States, 1950, Volume 6, (Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 1976), p.259.

  71. See Ching Cheong, “US Taiwan Policy Set 31 Years Ago,” Straits Times, December 20, 2003, in Lexis/Nexis.

  72. Shirley Kan, China/Taiwan: Evolution of the ‘One China’ Policy—Key Statements from Washington, Beijing and Taipei, CRS Report for Congress, (Washington, DC: CRS, December 13, 2007), p.CRS-33.

  73. In November 2010, Raymond Burghardt, AIT Chairman, explained “The US ‘no position on Taiwan’s international status is, in fact, a position, which has drawn objections from Beijing. We take no position. Taking no position is itself a position because that means you’re not taking their (China’s) position.” See Chris Wang, “No Position on Taiwan’s Status is in Fact a Position,” Central News Agency, November 30, 2010, in BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific, November 30, 2010, in Lexis/Nexis.

  74. See J. Michael Cole, “UN told to Drop ‘Taiwan is a Part of China:’ Cable,” Taipei Times, September 6, 2011, p.1, on the world wide web at http://www.taipeitimes.com.

  75. “Comment on Status of Taiwan Retracted,” China Daily, May 6, 2009, in Lexis/Nexis.

  76. When establishing diplomatic relations with Beijing, most countries, including the world’s major powers, will declare that Taiwan is a part of China. The communiqué that paved the way for diplomatic relations between Japan and the PRC is a case in point. Moreover, Japanese lawmakers have declared that “Taiwan is a part of China.” See “Cable Shows Japan Official said Taiwan Part of China,” Taipei Times, September 12, 2011, p.3 on the world wide web at http://www.taipeitimes.com .

  77. See Chris Wang, “No Position on Taiwan’s Status is in Fact a Position.”

  78. See Richard C. Bush, The Significance of the ROC for Cross-Strait Relations.

  79. See Weber [9].

  80. As Ross Terrill observed, “for 1,269 years, there was one Korean state; for six decades there have been two.” See Ross Terrill, “One Korea After All,” The Weekly Standard, January 16, 2012, Volume 17, Number 17, on the world wide web at http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/one-korea-after-all_616137.html.

  81. See Jean Pierre Cabestan, “Is there a Solution to the China-Taiwan Quarrel,” Publie Dans Perspective Chinoises, Number 63, January–February 2001, p.4.

  82. See Chu Shulong, Communication for Better Understanding and Improvement of Cross-Taiwan Strait Relations, (Washington, DC: Brookings Northeast Asia Commentary, Number 50, June 2011), on the world wide web at http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/06_cross_strait_shulong.aspx.

  83. Ibid.

  84. See Shih Hsiu-Chuan, “WIKILEAKS: China Does Not Support “Mutual Non-Denial: Cable,” Taipei Times, September 11, 2011, p.3, on the www at http://www.taipeitimes.com

  85. Vincent Y. Chao, “One China, Two Governments” Rejected.” Taipei Times, June 24, 2011, p.1 on the www at http://www.taipeitimes.com

  86. See Chris Wang, “Peace Accord with China ‘Naïve,’: DPP,” Taipei Times, September 27, 2011 on the world wide web at http://www.taipeitimes.com.,

  87. See Jean Pierre Cabestan, “Is there a Solution to the China-Taiwan Quarrel,” p.4.

  88. “Assurance Against Invasion, War Doesn’t Include Taiwan: China,” China Post, September 8, 2011 on the word wide web at www.chinapost.com.tw/.

  89. Public opinion polls conducted by the ROC Mainland Affairs Council on a regular basis show that most people in Taiwan support the “status quo.”

  90. Author’s interview with Professor Su Chi, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC, May 27, 2011.

  91. For information on the Copeland method, see Merlin and Saari [5].

  92. See “Record Crowds Celebrate ROC Centennial,” China Post, January 1, 2011, in Lexis/Nexis.

  93. See Shih Hsiu-chang, “ROC 100: Ma Calls on China to Emulate Taiwan,” Taipei Times, October 11, 2011, p.1 on the world wide web at http://www.taipeitimes.com.

  94. As one recent study observed, there is “a broad range of potential agreements that could be reached by the two parties.” See Saunders and Kastner (2009)

  95. Indeed, as Richard Bush explained, “unless the PRC is willing to address and accommodate the reality of the ROC, it will never achieve its political objectives.” See Richard C. Bush, The Significance of the ROC for Cross-Strait Relations.

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  1. Political Science Department, Missouri State University, Springfield, MO, 65897, USA

    Dennis V. Hickey

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Correspondence to Dennis V. Hickey.

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This paper was prepared for delivery at the 2011 Annual Meeting of the Taiwan Political Science Association, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan ROC, November 11-13, 2011. This project was supported with a research grant from the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy. The author would like to thank Professor Brian Calfano for help with Tables 2 and 3.

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Hickey, D.V. Wake Up to Reality: Taiwan, the Chinese Mainland and Peace Across the Taiwan Strait. J OF CHIN POLIT SCI 18, 1–20 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-012-9224-0

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Keywords

  • Taiwan
  • China
  • Peace
  • Future
  • Sovereignty