Abstract
Estimating the pollution loads in the Tuhai River is essential for developing a water quality standard scheme. This study utilized the improved output coefficient method to estimate the total pollution loads in the river basin while analyzing the influencing factors based on the STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology) model. Findings indicated that the projected point source pollution loads for total phosphorus (TP), chemical oxygen demand (COD), and ammonia nitrogen (AN) would amount to 3937.22 ton, 335,523.25 ton, and 13,946.92 ton in 2021, respectively. Among these, COD pollution would pose the greatest concern. The primary contributors to the pollution loads were rural scattered life, large-scale livestock and poultry breeding, and surface runoff. Per capita GDP emerged as the most influential factor affecting the pollution loads, followed by cultivated land area, while the urbanization rate demonstrated the least impact.
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Data availability
The data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author.
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This work was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (52270005) and the National Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province (ZR2020ME220).
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Conceptualization: Xi Wang; methodology: Xi Wang; formal analysis and investigation: Xi Wang; writing—original draft preparation: Xiaoyu Zhang; writing—review and editing: Xi Wang, Xiaomei Gao, Xiaoyu Zhang, Weiying Xu, and Yushuo Zhang; funding acquisition: Weiying Xu; supervision: Shifan Dong and Xiaomei Gao.
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Wang, X., Zhang, X., Gao, X. et al. Pollution load estimation and influencing factor analysis in the Tuhai River Basin in Shandong Province of China based on improved output coefficient method. Environ Sci Pollut Res 31, 29549–29562 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-33107-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-33107-1