Abstract
The low-carbon development of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is critical to achieving the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. As such, combining gray model theory with system dynamics (SD-GM) and based on the bidirectional-cycle prediction theory, we propose a NEV annual average mileage algorithm considering the impact of the epidemic in China, taking private cars as an example. Then, combining a voluntary advocacy strategy (VA) with the SD-GM theory (VA-SD-GM integration), we establish an energy-saving and carbon-reduction management model. To evaluate the proposed algorithm, we performed a dynamic simulation. The results indicate that the enhanced green scenario enabled significant energy-saving and CO2 reduction performance but would cause side effects in the long term. Compared with the enhanced green scenario, the linkage mode reduced the impact of parking space tension, the number of NEV trips, and the intensification of traffic congestion by approximately 33%, 50%, and 34%, respectively. It effectively suppressed the continuous increase in side effects and had a synergistic effect of carbon reduction, energy conservation, congestion alleviation, and side-effect reduction. The study provides a theoretical basis for optimizing the energy-saving and CO2 reduction path of NEVs.
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Acknowledgements
We thank LetPub (www.letpub.com) for its linguistic assistance during the preparation of this manuscript.
Funding
This research was supported by the Social Science Planning Foundation of Henan Province (grant no. 2022BJJ052), Project funded by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (grant no. 2021M690889), Key Research and Development Projects of Henan Province (Grant No. 231111110100), Soft Science Research Project of Henan Province (grant no. 232400410057), and Special Fund for Topnotch Talent at Henan Agricultural University (grant no. 30500646).
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Shuwei Jia wrote the original draft; Yuyang Gao and Yuying Guo contributed to data analysis; Haoyi Ma and Yao Li contributed to model validation; Haiping Yu reviewed and edited the paper.
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Jia, S., Gao, Y., Guo, Y. et al. Energy-saving and CO2 reduction strategies for new energy vehicles based on the integration approach of voluntary advocacy and system dynamics. Environ Sci Pollut Res 31, 14804–14819 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-32172-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-32172-w