Abstract
Population aging and carbon emissions are critical issues for China’s development. As an enormous complex system, the population and the carbon emission development process have non-negligible differences in time, space, and speed. Therefore, this paper first demonstrates the spatial and temporal correlation between population aging and carbon emissions from 1995 to 2020, then uses the allometric growth analysis model to make a cross-sectional temporal comparison and a vertical spatial comparison of the relationship and development rate of the two, and finally uses the ridge regression model to determine the forces and interaction mechanisms of the factors influencing the relationship between population aging and carbon emissions at allometric rates. The results show that (1) China has a long-term positive temporal correlation effect relationship between population aging and carbon emissions from 1995 to 2020, and the overall correlation is high. The spatial correlation intensity between population aging and carbon emissions varies significantly across Chinese provinces, with a general spatial distribution trend of high in the south, low in the north, and prominent in the center. (2) China’s population aging and carbon emissions mainly show a negative allometric growth type of relationship, i.e., a strong trend of population aging expansion and a strengthening trend of carbon emission system shrinking. The number of provinces with negative allometric growth is gradually increasing, mainly in North, East, Central, and Southwest China. (3) From 1995–2010 period to the 2011–2020 period, the influence of the factors of the population, production, and economic dimensions on the population aging index and the carbon emission allometric scalar index gradually weakened, and the influence of the consumption and technology dimensions increased significantly. The factors on the population and consumption side of the dimension mainly contribute to the expansion of carbon emissions and drive positive allometric growth. The production side, the economic structure, and technology dimension factors drive negative allometric growth. The paper fully explores the bidirectional correlation, differential development trend, and interaction mechanism between the two systems of population and carbon emissions and effectively compensates for the lack of research content in terms of elemental correlation, spatial and temporal connection, and speed synergy.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The statistical data needed for the study are mainly obtained from the China Statistical Yearbook, China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook, China Energy Statistical Yearbook, China Science and Technology Statistical Yearbook, and China Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin and consist of other statistical data from the World Bank and other statistical agencies for the 1996–2021 period. The geographic information base data are obtained from standard maps downloaded from the Technical Review Center of the Ministry of Natural Resources of China.
References
Aziz S, Chowdhury SA, Shahriar A (2023) Analysis of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions using the STIRPAT model: a case study of Bangladesh. Environ Dev Sustain 25:3945–3965. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02224-7
Chen J, Fei Y, Wan Z, Yang Z, Li H, Choi KS, Xie X (2020) Allometric relationship and development potential comparison of ports in a regional cluster: a case study of ports in the pearl river delta in China. Transp Policy 85(C):80–90
Cheng C, Ren X, Wang Z, Yan C (2019) Heterogeneous impacts of renewable energy and environmental patents on CO2 emission - evidence from the BRIICS. Sci Total Environ 668:1328–1338. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.063
Cheng W, Mo D, Li J, Tian Y (2022) Does fertility policy adjustment affect the achievement of China’s “peak carbon” target? –an empirical study based on the STIRPAT and Leslie model. Ecol Econ 38(3):22–29+39
Dang Y, Shang Z, Wang J, Feng Y (2019) Construction of grey indicator correlation model based on panel data and its application. Control Decis 5:8
Ding T, Yang J, Song P (2022) Driving factors of carbon emissions in eight major economic zones in China: from the perspective of temporal and spatial technology heterogeneity. Soft Sci 36(9):8. https://doi.org/10.13956/j.ss.1001-8409.2022.09.13
Estiri H, Zagheni E (2019) Age matters: ageing and household energy demand in the United States. Energy Res Soc Sci 55:62–70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2019.05.006
Fan J, Zhou L, Yan Z, Shao S, Ma M (2021) How does population aging affect household carbon emissions? Evidence from Chinese urban and rural areas. Energy Econ 100(2):105356. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105356
Feng Y, Wu H, Jin Y, Wang L, Zeng B (2023) How does population aging affect carbon emissions? -Analysis based on the multiple mediation effect model. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30(14). https://doi.org/10.1007/S11356-023-25186-3
Feng Y (2022) Study on the impact of population aging on regional carbon emissions and mechanisms. Dissertation, Chongqing Gongshang University
Guo F, Zhang L, Wang Z, Ji S (2022a) Research on determining the critical influencing factors of carbon emission integrating GRA with an improved STIRPAT model: taking the Yangtze River delta as an example. Int J Environ Res Public Health 19(14):8791. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19148791
Guo F, Yang S, Ren Y (2022b) Digital economy, green technology innovation and carbon emissions - empirical evidence from the Chinese city level. J Shaanxi Normal Univ (philosophy and Social Science Edition) 51(3):45–60
Guo C (2020) The impact of carbon emission reduction on labor demand. Dissertation, University of International Business and Economics
Hao R, Wei W, Liu C, Jie B, Du H (2022) Spatialization and spatial-temporal dynamics of carbon emissions from energy consumption in China. Environ Sci 43(11):10
Hassan T, Kargar D, Ilhan O, Usama A (2020) The impact of age structure on the Middle East carbon emission: the panel autoregressive distributed lag approach. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int 28(26):33722–33734. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08880-4
Hu Z, Guo J (2022) Study on the factors influencing household energy consumption carbon emissions. Manag Admin 5:9
Li Z, Wang J (2021) Accounting for and analyzing the drivers of carbon emissions of urban and rural households in China. Stati Decis Mak 37(20):48–52
Li Z, Wang J (2022) The dynamic impact of the digital economy on carbon emission reduction: evidence city-level empirical data in China. J Clean Prod 351:131570. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131570
Li R, Wang Q, Liu Y, Jang R (2021) Per-capita carbon emissions in 147 countries: the effect of economic, energy, social, and trade structural changes. Sustain Prod Consum 27:1149–1164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2021.02.031
Li R, Li L, Wang Q (2022a) The impact of energy efficiency on carbon emissions: evidence from the transportation sector in Chinese 30 provinces. Sustain Cities Soc 82:103880. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2022.103880
Li Z, Yin S, Jiang Y, Lv Y (2022c) Relationship between economic growth and carbon emission allometric in the Yangtze River Delta and its formation mechanism. J Nat Resour 37(6):17
Li R, Wang X, Wang Q (2022) Does renewable energy reduce ecological footprint at the expense of economic growth? An empirical analysis of 120 countries. J Clean Prod (Apr.20): 346, 131207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131207
Li C (2021) Carbon emission impacts of urban sprawl in Southwest China. Dissertation, Southwest University
Lin X, Pan H, Qi L, Ren Y, Sharp B, Ma C (2022) An input-output structural decomposition analysis of changes in China’s renewable energy consumption. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29(11):16678–16691. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-16905-9
Liu H (2019) The development of population aging in the world and China. Sci Res Aging 9(12):16
Liu J, Ma X (2021) Population aging, industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions: a spatial econometric analysis based on the STIRPAT model. Finance Econ 7:54–62
Liu F, Wang W (2021) Impact of population age structure changes on carbon emissions - cross-country panel data based on fertility and life expectancy. Resour Sci 43(10):2105–2118
Liu B, Wang N, Yu M, Zhu X (2021) Implied carbon in manufacturing service factor inputs and exports: a study based on the perspective of environmental costs in global value chains. J Renmin Univ China 35(2):81–94
Liu J, Shi T, Hou Z, Huang L, Pu L (2023a) Analysis of spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of energy-related carbon emissions in the yellow river basin using remote sensing data. Front Energy Res 11:1231322. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2023.1231322
Liu Y, Chen L, Lv L, Failler P (2023b) The impact of population aging on economic growth: a case study on China. Aims Math 8(5):10468–10485
Liu Q (2021) Study on the marginal demographic effects of carbon emissions from household consumption in China. Dissertation, Henan University
Lv Q (2020) Characteristics of spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emissions from energy consumption and emission reduction strategies in China. Dissertation, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
Muhammad K, Majed A, Babar A, Sarah W (2020) Impact of urbanization, economic growth, and population size on residential carbon emissions in the SAARC countries. Clean Technol Environ Policy 22(4):923–936. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-020-01833-y
Ortega R, Mena N, Golpe A, Garcia J (2022) CO2 emissions and causal relationships in the six largest world emitters. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 162:112435
Programme U N E (2020) 2020 emissions gap report
Qian J, Li J (2018) Does technological progress effectively promote energy saving and CO2 reduction? Stud Sci Sci 36(1):49–59
Rao C, Huang Q, Chen L, Goh M, Hu Z (2023) Forecasting the carbon emissions in Hubei province under the background of carbon neutrality: a novel STIRPAT extended model with ridge regression and scenario analysis. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30(20):57460–57480. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-26599-w
Ren C, Zhou X, Wang C, Guo Y, Diao Y, Shen S, Reis S, Li W, Xu J, Gu B (2023) Aging threatens sustainability of smallholder farming in China. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-05738-w
Shao S, Fan M, Yang L (2022) Economic structural adjustment, green technology progress and low carbon transition development in China: an empirical examination based on the perspectives of overall technology frontier and spatial spillover effects. J Manag World Manag World 38(2):46–69+44-10
Song F, Nie R (2022) Research on the impact of population aging on the “double upgrade” of industrial consumption. Price: Theory Pract (5):86–89+205
Sun L, Jiang L (2021) Household consumption patterns under a demographic change in China - a multi-temporal analysis based on Dilley’s model. Popul Econ 5:56–68
Sun L, Luo Y (2022) Carbon dioxide emissions, technological progress, and economic growth- an analysis based on a joint cubic equation model. Innov Sci Technol 22(9):25–34
Tang J, Liu W (2018) The process and misconceptions of aging development in China. J Beijing Univ Technol (social Science Edition) 18(4):8–18
Tian L, Wu X (2023) Urbanization, technological innovation and regional carbon emission performance. J Tech Econ Manag 8:67–72
Tong Y (2021) Recent population dynamics and trends in China—an analysis of the Seventh National Population Census Data. J China Univ Labor Relat 35(4):11
Wang Z, Fan J (2022) Characteristics of influencing factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption and research outlook. Geogr Res 41(10):2587–2599
Wang Q, Su M (2019) The effects of urbanization and industrialization on decoupling economic growth from carbon emission - a case study of China. Sustain Cities Soc 51:101758–101758. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101758
Wang R, Qi Z, Shu Y (2020) Research on multiple effects of fixed-asset investment on energy consumption–by three strata of industry in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27(33):41299–41313. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-10094-7
Wang Q, Wang L (2021) The nonlinear effects of population aging, industrial structure, and urbanization on carbon emissions: A panel threshold regression analysis of 137 countries. J Clean Prod 2021:287
Wang X, Li Y, Bi J, Liu M (2022b) New Belt and Road Initiative challenges under China’s “3060” carbon target. J Clean Prod 376:134180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.134180
Wang Q, Fan J, Kwan MP, Zhou K, Shen G, Li N, Wu B, Lin J (2023a) Examining energy inequality under China’s rapid residential energy transition through household surveys. Nat Energy 8(3):251–263. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01193-z
Wang Q, Fu L, Sun H (2023b) Regional differences, dynamic evolution and influencing factors of carbon emissions from industrial production and energy consumption in China. Resour Sci 45(6):1239–1254
Wang Q, Zhang F, Li R (2023c) Revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in 208 counties: the roles of trade openness, human capital, renewable energy and natural resource rent. Environ Res 216(3):114637
Wang H (2021) Study on the impact of population structure and urbanization on carbon emissions in China. Dissertation, Jilin University
Wen Y (2021) The impact of population age structure on carbon emissions in China. Dissertation, South China University of Technology
Wu L, Wu R, Yang D (2023) Spatial and temporal evolution of population aging in China from 2000 to 2020 and the factors affecting it. World Reg Stud 1–16. http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/31.1626.P.20230316.1003.002.html
Xi Y, Niu G (2021) An empirical study on the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth - empirical evidence based on international panel data. Modern Manag Sci 8:13–25
Xiang H, Zeng X, Han H, An X (2023) Impact of population aging on carbon emissions in China: An empirical study based on a Kaya model. Int J Environ Res Public Health 20(3):1716. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20031716
Xiao M, Peng X (2023) Decomposition of carbon emission influencing factors and research on emission reduction performance of energy consumption in China. Front Environ Sci 10:1096650. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.1096650
Xu, Y (2023) The impact of green technology innovation on carbon emission efficiency in Chinese Cities. Dissertation, Shandong Normal University
Yan X, Deng Y, Peng L, Jiang Z (2022) Study the impact of digital economy development on the carbon emission intensity of urban agglomerations and its mechanism. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30(12):33142–33159. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-24557-6
Yang T, Wang Q (2020) The nonlinear effect of population aging on carbon emission-empirical analysis of ten selected provinces in China. Sci Total Environ 740:140057. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140057
Yao X, Kou D, Shao S, Li X, Wang W, Zhang C (2018) Can urbanization process and carbon emission abatement be harmonious? New evidence from China. Environ Impact Assess Rev 71:70–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2018.04.005
Yin Y, Chang X (2022) Population aging, industrial structure upgrading, and regional carbon emissions. J Lanzhou Univ f Financ Econ 38(1):60–74
Yin S, Yang S, Gong H (2022a) Allometric relationship and interaction mechanism between industrial economic scale and pollution emission in Yangtze River Delta. Acta Geogr Sin 77(9):17
Yin S, Yang S, Zhu Y (2022b) Spatial and temporal patterns of economic development and heterogeneous growth of the residential market and their formation mechanisms - a case study of the Yangtze River Delta region. Hum Geogr 37(3):11
Yu H, Lu L, Lu T (2022) Analysis of the mechanism of population aging affecting economic growth: based on the perspective of effective labor input. East China Econ Manag 36(5):96–104
Yu L (2021) Study the relationship between economic growth, population structure, and carbon emissions based on spatial distribution characteristics. Dissertation, Jinan University
Zeng L, Lu H, Liu Y, Zhou H (2019) Analysis of regional differences and influencing factors on China’s carbon emission efficiency in 2005–2015. Energies 12(16):3081. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12163081
Zhang Z (2018) Report on the carbon emissions assessment from residential life in China. Science Press, Beijing
Zhang C, Zhang W, Luo W, Gao X, Zhang B (2021a) Analysis of influencing factors of carbon emissions in China’s logistics industry: a GDIM-based indicator decomposition. Energies 14(18):14. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14185742
Zhang H, Yuan P, Zhu Z (2021b) Population size, industrial agglomeration and carbon emissions in Chinese cities. Chin Environ Sci 41(5):2459–2470
Zheng H, Long Y, Wood R, Moran D, Zhang Z, Meng J, Feng K, Hertwich E, Guan D (2022a) Aging society in developed countries challenges carbon mitigation. Nat Clim Chang 12(3):241. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01359-9
Zheng Y, Xiao J, Huang F, Tang J (2022b) How do resource dependence and technological progress affect carbon emissions reduction effects of industrial structure transformation? Empirical research based on the rebound effect in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-20193-2
Funding
This work was supported by the Social Science Foundation of Hebei Province, China (Grant No. HB22GL062).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Xiaoyang Guo mainly made substantial contributions to the writing of this article.
Ruiling Han mainly revised and improved the article as a whole.
Zongzhe Li and Xiang Zhou made substantial contributions to checking the entire article systematically.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethics approval and consent to participate
Not applicable.
Consent for publication
Not applicable.
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: V.V.S.S. Sarma
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Guo, X., Han, R., Li, Z. et al. Study on the spatial and temporal correlation and allometric growth mechanism between population aging and carbon emissions in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 31, 634–656 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-31059-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-31059-6