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Regional differences, dynamic evolution, and spatial spillover effects of carbon emission intensity in urban agglomerations

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Abstract

Taking three major urban agglomerations in China as examples, this paper uses the Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition method, a Kernel density estimation method, and Markov chain and spatial Markov chain to study the regional differences, dynamic evolution characteristics, and spatial spillover effects of carbon emission intensity (CEI) of urban agglomerations, and accordingly, it proposes differentiated emission reduction and carbon reduction policies. The following results were obtained: (1) The overall CEI of the three major urban agglomerations and each individual urban agglomeration were found to have declined significantly over time, with an overall spatial pattern of “high in the north and low in the south,” with inter-group differences being the main source of the overall differences. (2) The imbalance in CEI between cities was more obvious within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration, while the synergistic emission reduction effect of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and Pearl River Delta (PRD) urban agglomerations increased over the study period. (3) The probability of a city maintaining a stable level of CEI was much higher than the probability of a state shift, and there was a spatial spillover effect of carbon emissions between neighboring cities. This study can provide theoretical support for the global response to greenhouse gas emissions, promoting green development and carbon reduction in various countries and urban agglomerations and providing a quantitative basis for the formulation of relevant policies.

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Data availability

Data and materials are available from the authors upon request.

Abbreviations

CEI:

Carbon emission intensity

CO2 :

Carbon dioxide

FDI:

Foreign direct investment

BTH:

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

YRD:

Yangtze River Delta

PRD:

Pearl River Delta

ICT:

Information and communication technology

GDP:

Gross domestic product

IPCC:

Intergovernmental panel on climate change

CEADs:

China Emission Accounts & Datasets

R&D:

Research and development

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Funding

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71974188), the Key Project of Jiangsu Social Science Fund (Grant No. 23GLA006), and the Philosophy and Social Science Planning Project of Inner Mongolia (Grant No. 2023ZZB013).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Economics and Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, People’s Republic of China

    Rui Qiao, Feng Dong, Xiaoqian Xie & Rui Ji

  2. Economic Research Institute of Inner Mongolia Academy of Social Sciences, Hohhot, 010029, People’s Republic of China

    Rui Qiao

Authors
  1. Rui Qiao
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  2. Feng Dong
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  4. Rui Ji
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Contributions

The specific contributions made by each author are as follows: conception and design of the study: Feng Dong and Rui Qiao; calculation of data: Rui Qiao; analysis and/or interpretation of data: Rui Qiao; performed the model: Xiaoqian Xie and Rui Ji. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Rui Qiao and Feng Dong, and all authors commented on the previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Feng Dong.

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Qiao, R., Dong, F., Xie, X. et al. Regional differences, dynamic evolution, and spatial spillover effects of carbon emission intensity in urban agglomerations. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 121993–122010 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-30807-y

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