Abstract
Carbon control in the thermal power generation industry is crucial for achieving the overall carbon peak target. How to predict, evaluate, and balance the allocation of inter provincial carbon emissions has a significant impact on the decision-making of reasonable allocation of inter provincial carbon emissions in the target year. Therefore, this paper uses Monte Carlo-ARIMA-BP neural network and ZSG-DEA model to conduct temporal trend prediction and carbon emission quota allocation research. We propose the “intra provincial and inter provincial” framework for carbon emissions trading in thermal power plants, which aims to break through the barriers in carbon emission rights exchange among provinces. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the growth trend of carbon emissions from thermal power is gradually slowing down and is expected to peak before 2030. (2) Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, and Shandong have high input–output efficiency, and are all the main output provinces for carbon emission quota allocation. After being adjusted using the ZSG-DEA model, they can still be at the forefront of efficiency. (3) The “intra provincial and inter provincial” framework for carbon emissions trading can effectively predict and allocate the carbon emission demand of each province from time and space dimensions, balance the carbon emission rights and interests of each province, and provide forward-looking planning suggestions for inter provincial carbon emission rights exchange.
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Acknowledgements
We thank all of the participating survey subjects and participating researchers.
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This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Beijing Municipality (8232013).
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All authors contributed to the interpretation of the results and approved the version of the final manuscript. Material preparation, data collection, and methodology were performed by Geriletu Bao. Supervision and formal analysis were performed by Zhenyu Zhao. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Zhenyu Zhao and Geriletu Bao. Writing — review and editing and project administration were performed by Kun Yang. All authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Zhao, ., Bao, G. & Yang, K. Prediction and balanced allocation of thermal power carbon emissions from a provincial perspective of China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 115396–115413 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-30472-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-30472-1