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Detrended seasonal relationships and impact of climatic factors combined with spatiotemporal effect on the prevalence of human brucellosis

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Abstract

Human brucellosis (HB) is a seasonal and climate-affected infectious disease that is posing an increasing threat to public health and economy. However, most of the research on the seasonal relationships and impact of climatic factors on HB did not consider the secular trend and spatiotemporal effect related to the disease. We herein utilized long-term surveillance data on HB from 2008 to 2020 using sinusoidal models to explore detrended relationships between climatic factors and HB. In addition, we assessed the impact of such climatic factors on HB using a spatial panel data model combined with the spatiotemporal effect. HB peaked around mid-May. HB was significantly correlated with climatic factors with 1–5-month lag when the respective correlations reached the maximum across the different lag periods. Each 0.1 °C increase in temperature led to 0.5% decrease in the 5-month lag incidence of HB. We also observed a positive spatiotemporal effect on the disease. Our study provides a detailed and in-depth overview of seasonal relationships and impact of climatic factors on HB. In addition, it proposes a novel approach for exploring the seasonal relationships and quantifying the impacts of climatic factors on various infectious diseases.

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Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available upon a proper request from the corresponding author Zhongjun Shao at 13759981783@163.com.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank all of the medical staff who have contributed to the reporting of brucellosis cases and to fight against brucellosis.

Funding

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number: 82273689 and 81803289).

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Author notes

  1. Chenxi Zhao and Shoumin Nie contributed equally as co-first authors.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi’an, 710032, China

    Chenxi Zhao, Kun Liu & Zhongjun Shao

  2. Department of Pediatrics, Xijing Hospital, the Fourth Military Medical University, Xi’an, China

    Chenxi Zhao

  3. Department of Plague and Brucellosis, Shaanxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi’an, 710054, China

    Shoumin Nie, Yangxin Sun, Cuihong An, Suoping Fan, Boyan Luo & Wenhui Chang

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  1. Chenxi Zhao
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Contributions

Zhongjun Shao, Kun Liu, Wenhui Chang, Chenxi Zhao, Shoumin Nie: conceptualization, methodology, software, formal analysis, writing — original draft, writing — review and editing. Yangxin Sun, Cuihong An, Suoping Fan, Boyan Luo: date collection, writing — review and editing. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Zhongjun Shao.

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The brucellosis surveillance and investigations are governmental public health task under the charge of the Shaanxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Therefore, an ethical review by an ethics committee was not required.

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Zhao, C., Nie, S., Sun, Y. et al. Detrended seasonal relationships and impact of climatic factors combined with spatiotemporal effect on the prevalence of human brucellosis. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 104043–104055 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-29699-9

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