Abstract
Global climate continues to warm; by reducing carbon emission (CE) to cope with climate warming has become a global consensus. The influencing factors of CE exhibit diversification and spatial characteristics, and the complexity of the CE system poses challenges to green and low-carbon development and the realization of China’s dual-carbon goals. Taking the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration as an example, this study explored the influencing factors of CE and designed emission reduction schemes with the help of multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR). Based on this, the system dynamics model was used to construct a CE system framework considering multi-dimensional driving factors, so as to combine the complex CE system with the emission reduction countermeasures considering spatial heterogeneity, and realize the dynamic simulation of CE reduction policies. The results showed that the urban agglomeration as a whole will reach carbon peak by 2025. Shenzhen, Zhuhai, and Dongguan have achieved carbon peak before 2020, while other cities will reach carbon peak by 2025–2030. The government policy constraints can effectively curb CE, but if government constraints were relaxed, CE will rise and individual cities will not reach carbon peak. Comprehensive CE reduction policies are better than a single CE reduction policy. The study found that this model framework provides a systematic analysis of carbon reduction strategies for urban agglomerations, offering decision-makers various combinations of economic development and green low-carbon objectives. This will further contribute to a multi-faceted mitigation of high emission in urban agglomeration and promote regional sustainable development.
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Acknowledgements
We thank the editors and the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions.
Funding
This study was supported by the Guizhou Provincial Science and Technology Projects (ZK[2022] normal 030) and the Innovative Exploration and New Academic Seedling Project of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics (2022XSXMB02).
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Conceptualization, Jian Yin; methodology, Jian Yin and Yi Ding; validation, Jian Yin, Yi Ding, and Hongtao Jiang; formal analysis, Yi Ding; investigation, Jian Yin; resources, Ruici Xia and Bin Zhang; data curation, Yi Ding; writing original draft preparation, Yi Ding; writing review and editing, Jian Yin and Danqi Wei; visualization, Jian Yin and Xinyuan Luo. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Ding, Y., Yin, J., Jiang, H. et al. Dynamic simulation of carbon emission under different policy scenarios in Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration, China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 102402–102417 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-29612-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-29612-4