Abstract
This study aims to analyze the correlation between financial stability, oil price shocks, and business cycle uncertainty in the economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. This study examines the interplay and effects of various factors on the economic resilience of the ASEAN region, utilizing data from ten-member countries spanning the years 2002 to 2022. The results underscore the notable impact of oil price shocks on financial systems’ stability, suggesting that oil price variations have the potential to disrupt financial markets, particularly in the context of the ongoing pandemic. Moreover, the research illustrates that the presence of business cycle uncertainty amplifies the negative consequences of oil price shocks, thereby heightening their influence on the financial system’s stability. The study also uncovers a robust correlation between the COVID-19 pandemic and heightened levels of business cycle uncertainty within the ASEAN economies. The ongoing global pandemic has increased market volatility, a deceleration in economic growth, and disruptions in supply chains, generating a heightened sense of uncertainty within the business landscape. As a result, the heightened level of uncertainty has impeded the efficacy of monetary and fiscal policies in preserving financial stability.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The data supporting this study’s findings are available on request.
References
Balcerzak AP (2016) Multiple-criteria evaluation of quality of human capital in the European union countries. Econ Sociol 9:11–26. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-789X.2016/9-2/1
Bashir MF (2022) Oil price shocks, stock market returns, and volatility spillovers: a bibliometric analysis and its implications. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29:22809–22828. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-18314-4
BashirMa MFB, Shahzad L (2020) A brief review of socio-economic and environmental impact of Covid-19. Air Qual Atmos Health 13:1403–1409. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-020-00894-8
Bashir MF, Sadiq M, Talbi B, Shahzad L, Adnan Bashir M (2022) An outlook on the development of renewable energy, policy measures to reshape the current energy mix, and how to achieve sustainable economic growth in the post COVID-19 era. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29:43636–43647. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-20010-w
Bilal, Bashir MF, Benghoul M, Numan U, Shakoor A, Komal B, Bashir MA, Bashir M, Tan D (2020) Environmental pollution and COVID-19 outbreak: insights from Germany. Air Qual Atmos Health. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-020-00893-9
Bolton RJ, Hand DJ (2002) Statistical fraud detection: a review. Statist Sci 17(3):235–255
Chang L, Iqbal S, Chen H (2023) Does financial inclusion index and energy performance index co-move? Energy Policy 174:113422
Chang L, Zhang Q, Liu H (2022) Digital finance innovation in green manufacturing: a bibliometric approach. Environ Sci Pollut Res. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-18016-x
Chen X, Chen W, Lu K (2023) Does an imbalance in the population gender ratio affect FinTech innovation? Technol Forecast Soc Change 188:122164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.122164
Coban HH, Lewicki W, Miśkiewicz R, Drożdż W (2023) The economic dimension of using the integration of highway sound screens with solar panels in the process of generating green energy. Energies 16. https://doi.org/10.3390/EN16010178
Fang W, Liu Z, Surya Putra AR (2022) Role of research and development in green economic growth through renewable energy development: empirical evidence from South Asia. Renew Energy 194:1142–1152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.04.125
Farooq U, Nasir A, Bilal, Bashir MF (2022) The COVID-19 pandemic and stock market performance of transportation and travel services firms: a cross-country study. Econ Res Istraživanja 35:6867–6883. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2053784
Gao H, Hsu P-H, Li K, Zhang J (2018) The real effect of smoking bans: evidence from corporate innovation. J Financ Quant Anal 55:1–88. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109018001564
Gao H, Shi D, Zhao B (2021) Does good luck make people overconfident? Evidence from a natural experiment in the stock market. J Corp Financ 68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2021.101933
Gupta S, Graham DW, Sreekrishnan TR, Ahammad SZ (2023) Exploring the impacts of physicochemical characteristics and heavy metals fractions on bacterial communities in four rivers. J Environ Manage 325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116453
He Q, Xia P, Hu C, Li B (2022) Public information, actual intervention and inflation expectations. Transform Bus Econ 21:644–666
Hu F, Qiu L, Xi X, Zhou H, Hu T, Su N, Zhou H, Li X, Yang S, Duan Z, Dong Z, Wu Z, Zhou H, Zeng M, Wan T, Wei S (2022a) Has COVID-19 changed China’s digital trade?-Implications for health economics. Front Public Health 10:831549. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.831549
Hu F, Qiu L, Xia W, Liu C-F, Xi X, Zhao S, Yu J, Wei S, Hu X, Su N, Hu T, Zhou H, Jin Z (2022b) Spatiotemporal evolution of online attention to vaccines since 2011: an empirical study in China. Front Public Health 10:949482. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.949482
Ikram M, Mahmoudi A, Shah SZA, Mohsin M (2019) Forecasting number of ISO 14001 certifications of selected countries: application of even GM (1,1), DGM, and NDGM models. Environ Sci Pollut Res. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-04534-2
Iqbal S, Bilal AR (2021) Energy financing in COVID-19: how public supports can benefit? China Finance Rev Int 12(2):219–240
Li W, Chien F, Ngo QT, Nguyen TD, Iqbal S, Bilal AR (2021) Vertical financial disparity, energy prices and emission reduction: empirical insights from Pakistan. J Environ Manag 294:112946
Li C, Umair M (2023) Does green finance development goals affects renewable energy in China. Renew Energy 203:898–905. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.12.066
Li Q, Miao Y, Zeng X, Tarimo CS, Wu C, Wu J (2020) Prevalence and factors for anxiety during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic among the teachers in China. J Affect Disord 277:153–158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2020.08.017
Liu F, Umair M, Gao J (2023) Assessing oil price volatility co-movement with stock market volatility through quantile regression approach. Resour Policy 81:103375. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103375
Liu H, Geng J, Yao P (2021a) Relationship of leadership and envy: how to resolve workplace envy with leadership—a bibliometric review study. J Intell. https://doi.org/10.3390/jintelligence9030044
Liu H, Huang F, Huang J (2022a) Measuring the coordination decision of renewable energy as a natural resource contracts based on rights structure and corporate social responsibility from economic recovery. Resour Policy 78:102915. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102915
Liu H, Khan AR, Aslam S, Rasheed AK, Mohsin M (2022b) Financial impact of energy efficiency and energy policies aimed at power sector reforms: mediating role of financing in the power sector. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29:18891–18904. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-16882-z
Liu H, Luo Y, Geng J, Yao P (2021b) Research hotspots and frontiers of product R&D management under the background of the digital intelligence era—bibliometrics based on Citespace and Histcite. Appl Sci. https://doi.org/10.3390/app11156759
Liu H, Yao P, Wang X, Huang J, Yu L (2021c) Research on the peer behavior of local government green governance based on SECI expansion model. Land. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10050472
Liu H, Zhou R, Yao P, Zhang J (2022c) Assessing Chinese governance low-carbon economic peer effects in local government and under sustainable environmental regulation. Environ Sci Pollut Res. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17901-9
Lv S, Zhao S, Liu H (2022) Research on the coupling between the double cycle mode and technological innovation systems: empirical evidence from data envelopment analysis and coupled coordination. Systems. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems10030062
Mirza N, Abbas Rizvi SK, Saba I, Naqvi B, Yarovaya L (2022) The resilience of Islamic equity funds during COVID-19: evidence from risk adjusted performance, investment styles and volatility timing. Int Rev Econ Financ 77:276–295. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.09.019
Mohsin M, Hanif I, Taghizadeh-Hesary F, Abbas Q, Iqbal W (2021a) Nexus between energy efficiency and electricity reforms: a DEA-Based way forward for clean power development. Energy Policy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112052
Mohsin M, Nurunnabi M, Zhang J, Sun H, Iqbal N, Iram R, Abbas Q (2020a) The evaluation of efficiency and value addition of IFRS endorsement towards earnings timeliness disclosure. Int J Financ Econ. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1878
Mohsin M, Ullah H, Iqbal N, Iqbal W, Taghizadeh-Hesary F (2021b) How external debt led to economic growth in South Asia: a policy perspective analysis from quantile regression. Econ Anal Policy 72:423–437. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EAP.2021.09.012
Mohsin M, Zaidi U, Abbas Q, Rao H, Iqbal N, Chaudhry S (2020b) Relationship between multi-factor pricing and equity price fragility: evidence from Pakistan. Int J Sci Technol Res 8
No IZADP, Padhan H (2018) DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES What matters for environmental quality in the Next-11 countries : economic growth or income inequality ?
Singh J (2016) Management of the agricultural biomass on decentralized basis for producing sustainable power in India. J Clean Prod 142:3985–4000. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.10.056
Tudoran GM, Zotta M (2020) Adapting the planning and management of Norway spruce forests in mountain areas of Romania to environmental conditions including climate change. Sci Total Environ 698. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133761
Ullah K, Rashid I, Afzal H, Iqbal MMW, Bangash YA, Abbas H (2020) SS7 Vulnerabilities—a survey and implementation of machine learning vs rule based filtering for detection of SS7 network attacks. IEEE Commun Surv Tutorials 22:1337–1371. https://doi.org/10.1109/COMST.2020.2971757
Wang X, Huang J, Liu H (2022) Can China’s carbon trading policy help achieve carbon neutrality? — A study of policy effects from the Five-sphere Integrated Plan perspective. J Environ Manage 305:114357. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114357
Wu B, Liu Z, Gu Q, Tsai F-S (2023) Underdog mentality, identity discrimination and access to peer-to-peer lending market: exploring effects of digital authentication. J Int Financ Mark Institutions Money 83:101714. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2022.101714
Wu Q, Yan D, Umair M (2022) Assessing the role of competitive intelligence and practices of dynamic capabilities in business accommodation of SMEs. Econ Anal Policy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2022.11.024
Xia Z, Abbas Q, Mohsin M, Song G (2020) Trilemma among energy, economic and environmental efficiency: can dilemma of EEE address simultaneously in era of COP 21? J Environ Manage. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111322
Xie X, Jin X, Wei G, Chang C-T (2023) Monitoring and early warning of SMEs’ shutdown risk under the impact of global pandemic shock. Systems 11:260. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems11050260
Yang Y, Liu Z, Saydaliev HB, Iqbal S (2022) Economic impact of crude oil supply disruption on social welfare losses and strategic petroleum reserves. Resour Policy 77:102689
Yao P, Liu H (2021) Research on behavior incentives of prefabricated building component manufacturers. Information. https://doi.org/10.3390/info12070284
Yi H, Meng X, Linghu Y, Zhang Z (2022) Can financial capability improve entrepreneurial performance? Evidence from rural China. Ekon. Istraživanja / Econ Res 36. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2091631
Zhao L, Saydaliev HB, Iqbal S (2022) Energy financing, COVID-19 repercussions and climate change: implications for emerging economies. Clim Chang Econ 13(03):2240003
Zheng X, Zhou Y, Iqbal S (2022) Working capital management of SMEs in COVID-19: role of managerial personality traits and overconfidence behavior. Econ Anal Policy 76:439–451
Zhou L, Jin F, Wu B, Chen Z, Wang CL (2023) Do fake followers mitigate influencers’ perceived influencing power on social media platforms? The mere number effect and boundary conditions. J Bus Res 158:113589. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2022.113589
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Chao Chang: Conceptualization, methodology, and writing—original draft, data curation, visualization, editing.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethics approval and consent to participate
We declare that we have no human participants, human data, or human issues.
Consent for publication
We do not have any person’s data in any form.
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Nicholas Apergis
Publisher's note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Chang, C. Financial stability nexus with oil prices shocks and business cycle uncertainty during COVID-19: empirical trends of ASEAN economies. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 95590–95605 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-28827-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-28827-9