Abstract
Power sector is the largest industrial emitter in China, and renewable energy development would contribute to the large-scale construction of power grid. Mitigating carbon emissions of power gird construction is extremely important. So, the objective of this study is to understand embodied carbon emissions of power grid construction under carbon neutrality target, and then put forward to policy implications of carbon mitigation. This study, based on top-down and bottom-up integrated assessment models (IAMs), investigates carbon emissions of power grid construction towards 2060, through identifying the key driving factors and forecasting their embodied emissions in line with China’s carbon neutrality target. Our results show that, the increase of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dominates the increase in embodied carbon emissions of power grid construction, while energy efficiency and energy structure improvement contribute to the decrease. Large scale renewable energy development promotes the power grid construction. In 2060, total embodied carbon emissions would increase to 1105.7 Million tons (Mt) under the carbon neutrality target. However, the cost and key carbon–neutral technologies should be re-considered to ensure the sustainable electricity supply. The results could provide data reference and decision-making of designing power construction and mitigating carbon emissions of power sector in future.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
Data presented in this study are available upon request by the corresponding author.
References
Ang BW (2004) Decomposition analysis for policy making in energy: which is the preferred model? Energy Policy 32(9):1131–1139. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4215(03)00076-4
Ang BW (2005) The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis: a practical guide. Energy Policy 33(7):867–871. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2003.10.010
Ang BW (2015) LMDI decomposition approach: a guide for implementation. Energy Policy 86:233–238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.07.007
Bistline JET, Blanford GJ (2021) Impact of carbon dioxide removal technologies on deep decarbonization of the electric power sector. Nat Commun 12:3732. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23554-6
Cao Y, Wang XF, Li Y et al (2016) A comprehensive study on low-carbon impact of distributed generations on regional power grids: A case of Jiangxi provincial power grid in China. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 53:766–778. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.09.008
Chen Y, Wang H, Yan Z et al (2022) A two-phase market clearing framework for inter-provincial electricity trading in Chinese power grids. Sustain Cities Soc 85:104057. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2022.104057
Chen R, Xu P, Yao H (2023) Decarbonization of China’s regional power grid by 2050 in the government development planning scenario. Environ Impact Assess Rev 101:107129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2023.107129
da Santos Silva SR, Hejazi MI, Iyer G et al (2021) Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean. Nat Commun 12:1276. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21502-y
Eichner T, Pethig R (2015) Unilateral consumption-based carbon taxes and negative leakage Recourse. Energy Econ 40:127–142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2015.03.002
Li H, Zhao Y, Qiao X et al (2017) Identifying the driving forces of national and regional CO2 emissions in China: Based on temporal and spatial decomposition analysis models. Energy Econ 68:522–538. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.10.024
Li H, Zhao Y, Wang S, Liu Y (2020) Spatial-temporal characteristics and drivers of the regional residential CO2 emissions in China during 2000–2017. J Clean Prod 276:124116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124116
Li M, Shan R, Virguez E et al (2022) Energy storage reduces costs and emissions even without large penetration of renewable energy: the case of China Southern Power Grid. Energy Policy 161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112711
Liang H, You F (2023) Reshoring silicon photovoltaics manufacturing contributes to decarbonization and climate change mitigation. Nat Commun 14:1274. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36827-z
Lin B, Du K (2014) Decomposing energy intensity change: a combination of index decomposition analysis and production-theoretical decomposition analysis. Appl Energy 129:158–165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.04.101
Liu Z, Ciais P, Deng Z et al (2020) Near-real-time monitoring of global CO2 emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nat Communications 11:5172. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18922-7
Ma Y, Song S, Li C et al (2023) Germanium-enriched double-four-membered-ring units inducing zeoliteconfined subnanometric Pt clusters for efficient propane dehydrogenation. Nat Catal. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41929-023-00968-7
Manojlovic AV, Medar OM, Andelkovic AS et al (2023) Environmental impact assessment of the electric vehicles: A case study. Energy Sources Part A-Recovery Util Environ Eff 45(1):1007–1016. https://doi.org/10.1080/15567036.2023.2173342
Peng W, Wagner F, Ramana MV et al (2018) Managing China’s coal power plants to address multiple environmental objectives. Nat Sustain 1:693–701. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0174-1
Qiu Y, Lamers P, Daioglou V et al (2022) Environmental trade-offs of direct air capture technologies in climate change mitigation toward 2100. Nat Commun 13:3635. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31146-1
Qu S, Liang S, Xu M (2017) CO2 emissions embodied in interprovincial electricity transmissions in China. Environ Sci Technol 51:10893–10902. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.7b01814
Reilly JM, Edmonds JA, Gardner RH, and Brenkert AL (1987) Uncertainty analysis of the IEA/ORAU CO2 emissions model. Energy J 8(3):1–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112711
Su B, Ang BW (2016) Multi-region comparisons of emission performance: the structural decomposition analysis approach. Ecol Ind 67:78–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.02.020
Tang BJ, Li R, Yu BY et al (2018) How to peak carbon emissions in China ′s power sector: a regional perspective. Energy Policy 120:365–381. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.067
Tao Y, Wen ZG, Xu LN et al (2019) Technology options: can Chinese power industry reach the CO2 emission peak before 2030? Resour Conserv Recycl 147:85–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.04.020
Wang P, Lin CK, Wang Y et al (2021) Location-specific co-benefits of carbon emissions reduction from coal-fired power plants in China. Nat Commun 12:6948. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27252-1
Wei W, Li J, Chen B et al (2021) Embodied greenhouse gas emissions from building China’s large-scale power transmission infrastructure. Nat Sustain 4:739–747. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00704-8
Wu F, Huang NY, Liu GJ et al (2020) Pathway optimization of China ′s carbon emission reduction and its provincial allocation under temperature control threshold. J Environ Manag 271:111034. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111034
Zhang YQ, Liu CG, Chen L et al (2019) Energy-related CO2 emission peaking target and pathways for China′s city: a case study of Baoding City. J Clean Prod 226:471–481. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.04.051
Zhang Y, Deng Y, Zheng Z et al (2023) Optimizing the operation strategy of a combined cooling, heating and power system based on energy storage technology. Sci Rep 13:2928. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-29938-6
Zhao MX, Lü LH, Wang S et al (2021) Meta regression analysis of pathway of peak carbon emissions in China. Chinese Res Environ Sci 34(9):2056–2064
Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72104023).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Mrs Liu Yan independently conduct the design, modelling and manuscript writing of this study.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethical approval
Not applicable.
Consent to participate
Not applicable.
Consent for publication
Not applicable.
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: George Z. Kyzas
Publisher's note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Liu, Y. CO2 emissions of constructing China’s power grid towards carbon–neutral target: Based on top-down and bottom-up integrated model. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 82083–82093 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-28135-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-28135-2