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Modeling of land use change under the recent climate projections of CMIP6: a case study of Indian river basin

  • Environmental Impacts and Consequences of Urban Sprawl
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Abstract

The aim of the study was to investigate the land use change dynamics under CMIP6 projections using Land Change Modeler (LCM). The Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) techniques was applied to quantify the sensitivity of single parameter and combination of parameters. Land use and land cover (LULC) transitions of the baseline period (2006–2016) was assessed with a model performance accuracy of 80%. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis shows that the model has performed well for all the LULC classes except builtup land. Prediction under the SSP245 scenario depicts that areal extent of agricultural, forest, and snow, and glacier will decrease by the mid-century (2045). However, the grassland and barren land area will increase from the baseline period. A similar change pattern with a higher magnitude has also been predicted under SSP585 scenario. The CMIP6 forcing index considers socio-economic effects and LCM predicted an expansion in barren land which may be attributed to changes in cryosphere in the studied area.

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Acknowledgements

The authors NK and SKS thank the Coordinator, KBCAOS, University of Allahabad, and DST-FIST, Government of India.

Funding

DST-INSPIRE fellowship (No. DST/INSPIRE Fellowship/2016/IF160401), New Delhi, for financial help. SERB-DST, New Delhi, India (Grant no. CRG/2019/003551).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. K. Banerjee Centre for Atmospheric and Ocean Studies, University of Allahabad, Prayagraj, 211002, Uttar Pradesh, India

    Nirmal Kumar, Vikram Gaurav Singh & Sudhir Kumar Singh

  2. National Remote Science Centre (NRSC), Bala Nagar, Telangana, India

    Dhiroj Kumar Behera

  3. Faculty of Geodesy, University of Zagreb, Kaciceva 26, Zagreb, Croatia

    Mateo Gašparović

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  1. Nirmal Kumar
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Contributions

Conceptualization: Nirmal Kumar (N.K.), Sudhir Kumar Singh (S.K.S) and Mateo Gašparović (M.G.); methodology: N.K., Vikram Gaurav Singh (V.G.S.) and S.K.S; formal analysis: N.K., and V.G.S.; investigation, VGS and SKS; data curation: NK and Dhiroj Kumar Bahera (D.K.B.); visualization, NK and VGS; writing—original draft preparation, NK, VGS, S.K.S., D.K.B, and M.G.; writing—review and editing, NK, VGS, SKS, D.K.B., & M.G.;All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Sudhir Kumar Singh.

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Kumar, N., Singh, V.G., Singh, S.K. et al. Modeling of land use change under the recent climate projections of CMIP6: a case study of Indian river basin. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 107219–107235 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-26960-z

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