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Sustainable management of water resources and assessment of the vulnerability of Moroccan oases to climate change

  • Environmental Pollution led Vulnerability and Risk Assessment for Adaptation and Resilience of Socio-ecological Systems
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Abstract

In the oases of Morocco, climate trends show an increase in average temperatures of 2.2 °C and exacerbated precipitation by + 20% between 2020 and 2050 according to climate change scenarios. The consequences of these changes have a clear decrease in water availability and an increase in water needs. Therefore, analyzing water resource capacity and searching for adequate solutions to water scarcity in oases are essential for developing drylands. In this study, we assess the possible effects of climate change on water scarcity and the oasis ecosystem and its components. The calculated water stress index (WSI) remains very low due to a decrease in the resource impacted by the combined increase in precipitation and temperature. The obtained results indicate that for scenario 1 the WSI varies from 904 to 699 m3/inhab/year in 2030 and for scenario 2 the WSI varies between 583 in 2030 and 451 m3/inhab/year in 2050. The water availability indicator takes a value in scenario 1 of 75% for Zagora and 50% for Ouarzazate at the horizons 2030 and 2050, then increase in scenario 2 to 89% for Zagora and 78% for Ouarzazate at the horizons2030 and 2050. These results were used to develop the adaptation process, which aims to identify needs, activities, and projects in the short, medium, and long term at the horizons 2030 and 2050. In addition, it could shed light on sustainable development in this region. In addition, this study could be a reference for researchers and a decision–support document for decision-makers to place economic development within an environmental management framework.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory of Materials and Biotechnology and Environment (LBME), Ibn Zohr University, Agadir, Morocco

    Imane Adraoui

  2. Faculty of Applied Sciences-Ait Melloul, Ibn Zohr University, Agadir, Morocco

    Imane Adraoui

  3. Laboratory of Terrestrial Ecology, Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, Cadi Ayad University, Marrakech, Morocco

    Brahim Jaafar

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  1. Imane Adraoui
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Pr. Imane Adraoui, the corresponding author, and Dr. Brahim Jaafar contributed to the sourcing of relevant literature as well as the synthesis, organization, and drafting of the manuscript.

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Adraoui, I., Jaafar, B. Sustainable management of water resources and assessment of the vulnerability of Moroccan oases to climate change. Environ Sci Pollut Res 31, 17981–17993 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-25498-4

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