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Geospatial modeling to assess the past and future land use-land cover changes in the Brahmaputra Valley, NE India, for sustainable land resource management

  • Environmental Impacts and Consequences of Urban Sprawl
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Abstract

Satellite remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) have revolutionalized the mapping, quantifying, and assessing the land surface processes, particularly analyzing the past and future land use-land cover (LULC) change patterns. Worldwide river basins have observed enormous changes in the land system dynamics as a result of anthropogenic factors such as population, urbanization, development, and agriculture. As is the scenario of various other river basins, the Brahmaputra basin, which falls in China, Bhutan, India, and Bangladesh, is also witnessing the same environmental issues. The present study has been conducted on the Brahmaputra Valley in Assam, India (a sub-basin of the larger Brahmaputra basin) and assessed its LULC changes using a maximum likelihood classification algorithm. The study also simulated the changing LULC pattern for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050 using the GIS-based cellular automata Markov model (CA-Markov) to understand the implications of the ongoing trends in the LULC change for future land system dynamics. The current rate of change of the LULC in the region was assessed using the 48 years of earth observation satellite data from 1973 to 2021. It was observed that from 1973 to 2021, the area under vegetation cover and water body decreased by 19.48 and 47.13%, respectively. In contrast, cultivated land, barren land, and built-up area increased by 7.60, 20.28, and 384.99%, respectively. It was found that the area covered by vegetation and water body has largely been transitioned to cultivated land and built-up classes. The research predicted that, by the end of 2050, the area covered by vegetation, cultivated land, and water would remain at 39.75, 32.31, and 4.91%, respectively, while the area covered by built-up areas will increase by up to 18.09%. Using the kappa index (ki) as an accuracy indicator of the simulated future LULCs, the predicted LULC of 2021 was validated against the observed LULC of 2021, and the very high ki observed validated the generated simulation LULC products. The research concludes that significant LULC changes are taking place in the study area with a decrease in vegetation cover and water body and an increase of area under built-up. Such trends will continue in the future and shall have disastrous environmental consequences unless necessary land resource management strategies are not implemented. The main factors responsible for the changing dynamics of LULC in the study area are urbanization, population growth, climate change, river bank erosion and sedimentation, and intensive agriculture. This study is aimed at providing the policy and decision-makers of the region with the necessary what-if scenarios for better decision-making. It shall also be useful in other countries of the Brahmaputra basin for transboundary integrated river basin management of the whole region.

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Acknowledgements

The first author is thankful to the University Grants Commission, Government of India, for providing the fellowship under the scheme of Dr. D.S. Kothari Post-Doctoral Fellowship (UGC-DSKPDF) (enrollment number: F.4-2/2006(BSR)/ES/20-21/0008). The corresponding author (G.M.) is thankful to the Department of Science and Technology, Government of India (DST-GoI), for providing the fellowship under the Scheme for Young Scientists and Technology (SYST-SEED) (grant no. SP/YO/2019/1362(G) and (C)).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Gauhati University, Jalukbari, Assam, India

    Jatan Debnath, Dhrubajyoti Sahariah, Durlov Lahon & Nityaranjan Nath

  2. GB Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment (NIHE), Himachal Regional Centre (Himachal Pradesh), Kullu, India

    Kesar Chand

  3. Department of Ecology, Environment and Remote Sensing, Government of Jammu and Kashmir, Kashmir, India

    Gowhar Meraj & Majid Farooq

  4. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama, 240-0115, Japan

    Pankaj Kumar

  5. Centre for Climate Change and Water Research (C3WR), Suresh Gyan Vihar University, Jaipur, 302017, India

    Gowhar Meraj & Majid Farooq

  6. Centre for Sustainable Development, Suresh Gyan Vihar University, Jaipur, 302017, India

    Suraj Kumar Singh

  7. Department of Geography, School of Environment and Earth Sciences, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda, Punjab, 151401, India

    Shruti Kanga

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Contributions

Jatan Debnath, Gowhar Meraj, Dhrubajyoti Sahariah, Durlov Lahon, Nityaranjan Nath: conceptualization, methodology, software, data curation, and writing—original draft preparation. Jatan Debnath and Gowhar Meraj: writing, review, and editing. Majid Farooq, Pankaj Kumar, Shruti Kanga, and Suraj Kumar Singh: conceptualization, methodology, writing, review, and editing.

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Correspondence to Gowhar Meraj.

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Debnath, J., Sahariah, D., Lahon, D. et al. Geospatial modeling to assess the past and future land use-land cover changes in the Brahmaputra Valley, NE India, for sustainable land resource management. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 106997–107020 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-24248-2

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