Abstract
This study utilises ground, satellite and model data to investigate the observed and future precipitation changes in Pakistan. Pakistan Meteorological Department’s (PMD) monthly precipitation data set along with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) monthly dataset TRMM_3B43 (0.25° × 0.25° resolution) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’s (ECMWF) monthly reanalysis product ERA5 have been used to evaluate rainfall trends over the climatic zones of Pakistan through Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator and innovative trend analysis for the time period 1978–2018. Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) projections have been employed to explore the projected changes in precipitation until 2099. Furthermore, TRMM and CCSM4 projections have been correlated and validated using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean bias error (MBE). There is a good correlation between TRMM and PMD ground observation at all stations of the country for all seasons, with correlation coefficient values ranging from 0.89 (November) to 0.97 (July and August). However, ERA5 monthly precipitation tends to overestimate rainfall in the winter months. The study shows a decreasing trend in winter precipitation in all zones of the country with a significant decrease over western mountains, i.e. zone C of the country. During 2008–2018, a sharp decrease in winter precipitation is observed as compared to the baseline value of 1978–2007 in all climatic zones. Rainy days have also shown a decrease in winter and pre-monsoon seasons. There seems to be a shift in precipitation from winter towards pre-monsoon season as pre-monsoon precipitation in the last 11 years increased in all zones except for zone C. Coherently, there is a decrease in an area affected by winter precipitation and an increase in area for pre-monsoon precipitation. Future precipitation estimates from the CCSM4 model for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 overestimate precipitation in most parts of the country for the first 9 observed years (2010–2018) and predict a rise in precipitation by 2099 which is more pronounced in the northern and western Pakistan while a decrease is predicted for the plains of the country, which might have negative consequences for agriculture.
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Data availability
Satellite data analyses used in this study were produced with the Giovanni online data system, developed and maintained by the NASA GES DISC. It can be accessed at https://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov. Reanalysis precipitation product ERA5 was downloaded from the Climate Data Centre (CDS) of ECMWF, which can be accessed at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu. The ground data that support the findings of this study are available from the Climate Data Processing Centre (CDPC) of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), but restrictions apply to the availability of these data, which were used under licence for the current study, and so are not publicly available.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) for providing its ground stations’ monthly precipitation data used in this study. Satellite data analyses used in this study were produced with the Giovanni online data system, developed and maintained by the NASA GES DISC. Reanalysis precipitation product ERA5 was downloaded from the Climate Data Centre (CDS) of ECMWF.
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Fasiha Safdar: investigation, formal data analysis, visualisation and writing – original draft preparation.
Muhammad Fahim Khokhar: supervision, visualisation, writing – review and editing.
Fatimah Mahmood: investigation, formal data analysis.
Muhammad Zeeshan Ali Khan: methodology, writing – review and editing.
Muhammad Arshad: methodology, writing – review and editing
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Highlights
• Decline in winter whereas an increase in pre-monsoon precipitation is observed over the region during 1978–2018.
• Rainy days in winter and pre-monsoon seasons have decreased.
• Coherently, there is a decline in an area affected by winter precipitation and an increase in an area impacted by pre-monsoon precipitation.
• TRMM satellite data monthly product TRMM_3B43 has a good correlation with ground station observations and can be a promising substitute for regions with limited gauge stations.
• CCSM4 model projections for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 overestimate precipitation in most zones of Pakistan for the first 9 years.
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Safdar, F., Khokhar, M.F., Mahmood, F. et al. Observed and predicted precipitation variability across Pakistan with special focus on winter and pre-monsoon precipitation. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 4510–4530 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-22502-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-22502-1