Abstract
The extensive literature has debated the varying effects of factors on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, it has paid little attention to land freight structure (FS), including road and rail freight share, which may have different effects on CO2 emissions. Based on the data from 6 eastern provinces in China during 2005–2019, the panel threshold model is used to explore the dynamic influence mechanism of road and rail freight share on transport carbon emission intensity (CE), respectively. The results show different nonlinear relationships between the share of road and rail freight and transport carbon emission intensity. First, the effect of road freight share on carbon emission intensity is all positive across different stages of trade openness, while such effect goes through a process of increasing and then decreasing with the level of trade openness improving. Second, the driving effect of rail freight share on carbon emission intensity exhibits a “negative–positive-negative” feature as the level of trade openness increases. Third, trade openness generates a double-threshold effect on carbon emission intensity. The differentiated nonlinear effects provide significant evidence of the modal shift from road to rail freight, which would be effective to alleviate transport CO2 emissions.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The data in this study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
Abbreviations
- CO2 :
-
Carbon dioxide
- IPS:
-
Im, Pesaran, and Shin
- CE:
-
Transport carbon emission intensity
- LR:
-
Likelihood ratio
- FS:
-
Land freight structure
- USA:
-
United States of America
- GFS:
-
The share of road freight
- EU:
-
European Union
- TFS:
-
The share of rail freight
- IPCC:
-
Intergovernmental panel on climate change
- TR:
-
Trade openness
- LMDI:
-
Logarithmic mean divisia index
- GDP:
-
Gross domestic product
- STIRPAT:
-
Stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology
- R&D:
-
Research and development
- VAR:
-
Vector autoregression
- PGDP:
-
Real GDP per capita
- VECM:
-
Vector error correction model
- EI:
-
Transport energy intensity
- GMM:
-
Generalized method of moments
- POP:
-
Population size
- ARDL:
-
Autoregressive distributed lag model
- URB:
-
Urbanization level
- PMG:
-
Pool mean group
- RD:
-
R&D investment intensity
- QARDL:
-
Quantile autoregressive distributed lag model
- ICTs:
-
Information and Communication Technologies
- FMOLS:
-
Fully modified ordinary least square
- LLC:
-
Levin, Lin, and Chu
References
Adams S, Boateng E, Acheampong AO (2020) Transport energy consumption and environmental quality: does urbanization matter? Sci Total Environ 744:140617. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140617
Alataş S (2022) Do environmental technologies help to reduce transport sector CO2 emissions? Evidence from the EU15 countries. Res Transp Econ 91:101047. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2021.101047
Alshehry AS, Belloumi M (2017) Study of the environmental Kuznets curve for transport carbon dioxide emissions in Saudi Arabia. Renew Sust Energ Rev 75:1339–1347. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.11.122
Andrés L, Padilla E (2018) Driving factors of GHG emissions in the EU transport activity. Transp Policy 61:60–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2017.10.008
Anwar A, Ahmad N, Madni GR (2020) Industrialization, freight transport and environmental quality: evidence from belt and road initiative economies. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27:7053–7070. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-07255-8
Arvin MB, Pradhan RP, Norman NR (2015) Transportation intensity, urbanization, economic growth, and CO2 emissions in the G-20 countries. Util Policy 35:50–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2015.07.003
Benali N, Feki R (2020) Evaluation of the relationship between freight transport, energy consumption, economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions: the VECM approach. Environ Dev Sustain 22:1039–1049. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-018-0232-x
Chandran VGR, Tang CF (2013) The impacts of transport energy consumption, foreign direct investment and income on CO2 emissions in ASEAN-5 economies. Renew Sust Energ Rev 24:445–453. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.03.054
Chatti W (2020) Information and communication technologies, road freight transport, and environmental sustainability. Environ Econ 11:124–132. https://doi.org/10.21511/ee.11(1).2020.11
Chatti W (2021) Moving towards environmental sustainability: information and communication technology (ICT), freight transport, and CO2 emissions. Heliyon 7:08190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e08190
Chatti W, Majeed MT (2022) Investigating the links between ICTs, passenger transportation, and environmental sustainability. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29:26564–26574. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17834-3
Chatti W, Ben Soltane B, Abalala T (2019) Impacts of public transport policy on city size and welfare. Netw Spat Econ 19:1097–1122. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11067-019-09451-y
Chertow MR (2000) The IPAT equation and its variants. J Ind Ecol 4:13–29. https://doi.org/10.1162/10881980052541927
Churchill SA, Inekwe J, Ivanovski K, Smyth R (2021) Transport infrastructure and CO2 emissions in the OECD over the long run. Transp Res D Transp Environ 95:102857. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2021.102857
Danish, Baloch MA, Suad S (2018) Modeling the impact of transport energy consumption on CO2 emission in Pakistan: evidence from ARDL approach. Environ Sci Pollut Res 25:9461–9473. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-1230-0
Danish, Zhang J, Hassan ST, Iqbal K (2020) Toward achieving environmental sustainability target in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries: the role of real income, research and development, and transport infrastructure. Sustain Dev 28:83–90. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.1973
Dietz T, Rosa EA (1994) Rethinking the environmental impacts of population, affluence and technology. Hum Ecol Rev 1:277–300
Ehrlich PR, Holdren JP (1971) Impact of Population Growth. Science 171:1212–1217
Eng-Larsson F, Lundquist K-J, Olander L-O, Wandel S (2012) Explaining the cyclic behavior of freight transport CO2-emissions in Sweden over time. Transp Policy 23:79–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.05.014
Fan F, Lei Y (2016) Decomposition analysis of energy-related carbon emissions from the transportation sector in Beijing. Transp Res D Transp Environ 42:135–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2015.11.001
Godil DI, Sharif A, Afshan S et al (2020) The asymmetric role of freight and passenger transportation in testing EKC in the US economy: evidence from QARDL approach. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27:30108–30117. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09299-7
Godil DI, Yu Z, Sharif A et al (2021) Investigate the role of technology innovation and renewable energy in reducing transport sector CO2 emission in China: a path toward sustainable development. Sustain Dev 29:694–707. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2167
Guo M, Meng J (2019) Exploring the driving factors of carbon dioxide emission from transport sector in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. J Clean Prod 226:692–705. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.04.095
Hansen BE (1999) Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: estimation, testing, and inference. J Econ 93:345–368. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(99)00025-1
Hassan SA, Nosheen M, Rafaz N, Haq I (2021) Exploring the existence of aviation Kuznets curve in the context of environmental pollution for OECD nations. Environ Dev Sustain 23:15266–15289. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01297-0
Huang Y, Zhu H, Zhang Z (2020) The heterogeneous effect of driving factors on carbon emission intensity in the Chinese transport sector: evidence from dynamic panel quantile regression. Sci Total Environ 727:138578. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138578
Im KS, Pesaran MH, Shin Y (2003) Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. J Econ 115:53–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7
Levin A, Lin C-F, Chu C-SJ (2002) Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties. J Econ 108:1–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7
Li L (2019) Structure and influencing factors of CO2 emissions from transport sector in three major metropolitan regions of China: estimation and decomposition. Transportation 46:1245–1269. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-017-9827-6
Li H, Lu Y, Zhang J, Wang T (2013) Trends in road freight transportation carbon dioxide emissions and policies in China. Energy Policy 57:99–106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.12.070
Lin S, Luo N, Yang J (2019) Vehicle structure and eco-efficiency based on the dynamic spatial Durbin model. Econ Geogr 39:22–38
Liu S, Zhu X, Jia S (2009) A review of urban traffic structure optimization. J Transp Syst Eng Inf Technol 9:29–38
Liu J, Li S, Ji Q (2021) Regional differences and driving factors analysis of carbon emission intensity from transport sector in China. Energy 224:120178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.120178
Lu S, Jiang H, Liu Y, Huang S (2017) Regional disparities and influencing factors of average CO2 emissions from transportation industry in Yangtze River Economic Belt. Transp Res D Transp Environ 57:112–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2017.09.005
Luo X, Dong L, Dou Y et al (2016) Regional disparity analysis of Chinese freight transport CO 2 emissions from 1990 to 2007: driving forces and policy challenges. J Transp Geogr 56:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.08.010
Marcucci E, Gatta V, Le Pira M, Elias W (2019) Modal shift, emission reductions and behavioral change: transport policies and innovations to tackle climate change. Res Transp Econ 73:1–3. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2019.02.003
Mohmand YT, Mehmood F, Mughal KS, Aslam F (2021) Investigating the causal relationship between transport infrastructure, economic growth and transport emissions in Pakistan. Res Transp Econ 88:100972. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2020.100972
Mohsin M, Abbas Q, Zhang J et al (2019) Integrated effect of energy consumption, economic development, and population growth on CO2 based environmental degradation: a case of transport sector. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26:32824–32835. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-06372-8
M’raihi R, Mraihi T, Harizi R, Taoufik Bouzidi M (2015) Carbon emissions growth and road freight: Analysis of the influencing factors in Tunisia. Transp Policy 42:121–129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2015.05.018
Rasool Y, Zaidi SAH, Zafar MW (2019) Determinants of carbon emissions in Pakistan’s transport sector. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26:22907–22921. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-05504-4
Sadorsky P (2014) The effect of urbanization on CO2 emissions in emerging economies. Energy Econ 41:147–153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.11.007
Saidi S, Hammami S (2017) Modeling the causal linkages between transport, economic growth and environmental degradation for 75 countries. Transp Res D Transp Environ 53:415–427. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2017.04.031
Salvia M, Reckien D, Pietrapertosa F et al (2021) Will climate mitigation ambitions lead to carbon neutrality? An analysis of the local-level plans of 327 cities in the EU. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 135:110253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110253
Song M, Zhang G, Zeng W et al (2016) Railway transportation and environmental efficiency in China. Transp Res D Transp Environ 48:488–498. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2015.07.003
Steenhof P, Woudsma C, Sparling E (2006) Greenhouse gas emissions and the surface transport of freight in Canada. Transp Res D Transp Environ 11:369–376. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2006.07.003
Talbi B (2017) CO2 emissions reduction in road transport sector in Tunisia. Renew Sust Energ Rev 69:232–238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.11.208
Wang B, Sun Y, Chen Q, Wang Z (2018) Determinants analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in passenger and freight transportation sectors in China. Struct Chang Econ Dyn 47:127–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2018.08.003
Wang C, Zhao Y, Wang Y et al (2020a) Transportation CO2 emission decoupling: an assessment of the Eurasian logistics corridor. Transp Res D Transp Environ 86:102486. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2020.102486
Wang Y, Song J, Yang W et al (2020b) Seeking spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanism of atmospheric pollutant emissions from road transportation in China. Resour Conserv Recycl 162:105032. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105032
Wei F, Zhang X, Chu J et al (2021) Energy and environmental efficiency of China’s transportation sectors considering CO2 emission uncertainty. Transp Res D Transp Environ 97:102955. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2021.102955
Xie R, Fang J, Liu C (2017) The effects of transportation infrastructure on urban carbon emissions. Appl Energy 196:199–207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.01.020
Xu B, Lin B (2015a) Carbon dioxide emissions reduction in China’s transport sector: a dynamic VAR (vector autoregression) approach. Energy 83:486–495. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.02.052
Xu B, Lin B (2015b) Factors affecting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China’s transport sector: a dynamic nonparametric additive regression model. J Clean Prod 101:311–322. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.03.088
Xu B, Lin B (2016) Differences in regional emissions in China’s transport sector: determinants and reduction strategies. Energy 95:459–470. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.12.016
Xu B, Lin B (2018) Investigating the differences in CO2 emissions in the transport sector across Chinese provinces: evidence from a quantile regression model. J Clean Prod 175:109–122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.12.022
Yang H, Ma X (2019) Uncovering CO2 emissions patterns from China-oriented international maritime transport: decomposition and decoupling analysis. Sustainability 11:2826. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11102826
Zhan Y (2001) Study on urban passenger transport policies and traffic structure optimization. China Communications Press, Beijing
Zhang C, Nian J (2013) Panel estimation for transport sector CO2 emissions and its affecting factors: a regional analysis in China. Energy Policy 63:918–926. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.142
Zhang Y, Chen X, Wu Y et al (2020) Peaks of transportation CO2 emissions of 119 countries for sustainable development: results from carbon Kuznets curve. Sustain Dev 28:550–571. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2008
Zhao M, Sun T, Feng Q (2021) Capital allocation efficiency, technological innovation and vehicle carbon emissions: evidence from a panel threshold model of Chinese new energy vehicles enterprises. Sci Total Environ 784:147104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147104
Zhou D, Huang F, Wang Q, Liu X (2021) The role of structure change in driving CO2 emissions from China’s waterway transport sector. Resour Conserv Recycl 171:105627. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105627
Funding
The research work was supported by Sichuan Science and Technology Program (No. 2019JDTD0001) and the NNSFC&CAAC under Grant U2133211.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Rujia Chen: data curation, formal analysis, methodology, and writing—original draft.
Xiaoning Wang: conceptualization, writing—review, and editing.
Yaping Zhang: supervision, validation, and funding acquisition.
Qian Luo: methodology, and visualization.
All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethics approval
Not applicable.
Consent to participate
Not applicable.
Consent for publication
Not applicable.
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: V.V.S.S. Sarma
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Chen, R., Wang, X., Zhang, Y. et al. The nonlinear effect of land freight structure on carbon emission intensity: new evidence from road and rail freight in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 78666–78682 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-21352-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-21352-1