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Synergy evaluation of China’s economy–energy low-carbon transition and its improvement strategy for structure optimization

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Abstract

Low-carbon economic development and energy transition are interactively linked. The synergetic development of the two subsystems is important to achieve the “double carbon” goal of sustainable development. First, this study proposes a model to measure the current synergy level of China’s economy–energy low-carbon transition. Second, an optimization model is developed to improve industry and energy synergy levels through structure optimization. The synergy degree (SD) level of China’s economy–energy low-carbon transition increased from 0 to 0.98 between 2005 and 2017. Furthermore, 69.2% of the periods are in a state of asynergy (SD < 0.6). By implementing the industry and energy structure optimization (OPT) scenario, the synergy level by 2035 can be 27.8% higher than the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Moreover, light synergy (0.6 ≤ SD < 0.8) could be achieved by 2025, and high-quality synergy (0.9 ≤ SD ≤ 1) by 2033 in the OPT scenario. Conversely, the synergy level can only achieve light synergy until 2035 in the BAU scenario. Compared to energy structure optimization, the low carbonization of the economic structure plays a more significant role in improving the synergy level of the transaction. These findings can provide support for China’s policy-making regarding economic and energy transition.

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Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Funding

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 72174188, 31961143006, and 71822403) and Hubei Natural Science Foundation, China (No. 2019CFA089).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Energy Environmental Management and Decision-Making, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Shiwei Yu, Jiahui Liu & Shuangshuang Zhou

  2. School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Shiwei Yu, Jiahui Liu & Shuangshuang Zhou

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  1. Shiwei Yu
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  2. Jiahui Liu
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  3. Shuangshuang Zhou
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Contributions

Shiwei Yu: conceptualization, writing—original draft, review and editing, project administration. Jiahui Liu: methodology, analysis, writing—original draft. Shuangshuang Zhou: analysis, methodology writing—review and editing.

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Correspondence to Shiwei Yu.

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Table 5 Sector division
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Table 6 Algorithm parameters and values
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Yu, S., Liu, J. & Zhou, S. Synergy evaluation of China’s economy–energy low-carbon transition and its improvement strategy for structure optimization. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 65061–65076 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-20248-4

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