Abstract
China is facing increasing pressure to reduce CO2 emissions from energy consumption. Given this issue, understanding the characteristics, influencing factors, and trends can provide adequate information for decision-makers to solve the CO2 emission problem. This study analyzes the characteristics of CO2 emissions from energy consumption in 30 regions of China from 2005 to 2018 and applies the STIRPAT model to identify the impact of the influencing factors. Combined with the CO2 emission trend in 2030 as predicted by the ARIMA model, the key mitigation regions and strategies reduction have been determined. Results indicate that CO2 emissions have been increasing from 2005 to 2018 in China, thus showing the characteristic of the east being larger than the west spatially. Under the baseline scenario, these emissions will continue to rise in 2030. Carbon emissions intensity is declining, and the gap between provinces with the highest and lowest per capita CO2 emissions is widening. Although per capita GDP is significantly positively correlated with provinces, population is the key factor influencing more provinces, followed by the proportion of the secondary industry and urbanization rate. To achieve low-carbon sustainable development, Shandong, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Ningxia are considered the key regions of concern for emission reduction. The heterogeneity of CO2 emission characteristics and influencing factors among regions provides a direction for the development of targeted and differentiated regional emission reduction strategies.
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All data generated or analyzed during this study are included in this published article (and its supplementary information files).
Abbreviations
- ARIMA:
-
Autoregressive integrated moving average
- CI:
-
CO2 emission intensity
- EEC:
-
Ecological elasticity coefficient
- IPAT:
-
Impact by population affluence and technology
- RR:
-
Ridge regression
- STIRPAT:
-
Stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology
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The authors appreciate the editor and anonymous reviewers for their helpful and constructive comments.
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This work was supported by the Social Science Foundation of Fujian Province, China (Grant No. FJ2020B031).
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Jingjing Chen: investigation, methodology, formal analysis, visualization, writing-original draft. Yiping Chen: data curation, visualization, writing—review and editing. Bingjing Mao: methodology, writing—review and editing. Xiaojun Wang: data curation, writing—review and editing. Lihong Peng: conceptualization, supervision, writing—review and editing, funding acquisition. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Chen, J., Chen, Y., Mao, B. et al. Key mitigation regions and strategies for CO2 emission reduction in China based on STIRPAT and ARIMA models. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 51537–51553 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19126-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19126-w