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Dynamic response relationship between cultivated land marginalisation and rural labour out-migration in mountainous areas in China: evidence from a vector autoregressive model

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Abstract

Understanding the dynamic interaction between cultivated land marginalisation (CLM) and rural labour out-migration (RLM) is vital for the sustainable utilisation of cultivated land, particularly in mountainous areas. Most previous research focused on unilateral CLM or RLM in mountainous areas, with limited research on the dynamic response between these two factors. To address this gap, we identified the characteristics of CLM and analysed the changing trends in RLM in 19 counties of western Hubei Province, China, from 2000 to 2018. The dynamic response relationship between the two phenomena was identified using a vector autoregressive model. CLM showed a volatile trend throughout the study area, with fluctuations most evident during 2004–2007 and 2009–2015. The rural labour population showed an inverted U-shaped trend with an increase during 2003–2015 and a decrease afterward, which is consistent with the trends in socioeconomic development. The dynamic response between the two factors showed large fluctuations in the short term but a stable relationship in the long term. These findings have important implications for differentiated land management, comprehensive land improvement, and rural land use policies and indicate that the added value of agricultural products from mountainous areas should be strengthened.

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Data availability

The datasets used and analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon request.

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Funding

The research is sponsored in part by grants from the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71804168 and 42001187).

National Natural Science Foundation of China, 71804168, Jingwei Xiang, 42001187, Wanxu Chen.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Jingwei Xiang & Jing Wu

  2. Department of Geography, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430078, China

    Wanxu Chen

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  1. Jingwei Xiang
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Contributions

JX, WC, and JW analysed and interpreted the patient data regarding the haematological disease and the transplant. JX, WC, and JW performed the histological examination of the kidney and was a major contributor in writing the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Wanxu Chen.

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Xiang, J., Chen, W. & Wu, J. Dynamic response relationship between cultivated land marginalisation and rural labour out-migration in mountainous areas in China: evidence from a vector autoregressive model. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 44207–44219 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-18807-w

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