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Assessing the long- and short-run asymmetrical effects of climate change on rice production: empirical evidence from India

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Abstract

In recent years, environmental change has arisen as a ubiquitous problem and gained environmentalist’s attention across the globe due to its long-term harmful effects on agricultural production, food supply, water supply, and livelihoods of rural households. The present study aims to explore the asymmetrical dynamic relationship between climate change and rice production with other explanatory variables. Based on the time series data of India, covering the period 1991–2018, the current study applied the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and Granger causality approach. The results of the NARDL reveal that mean temperature negatively affects rice production in the long run while positively affecting it in the short run. Furthermore, positive shocks in rainfall and carbon emission have negative and significant impacts on rice production in the long and short run. In comparison, negative rainfall shocks significantly affect rice production in the long and short run. Wald test confirms the asymmetrical relationship between climate change and rice production. The Granger causality test shows feedback effect among mean temperature, decreasing rainfall, increasing carbon emission, and rice production. While no causal relationship between increasing temperature and decreasing carbon emission. Based on the empirical investigations, some critical policy implications emerged. Toward sustainable rice production in India, there is a need to improve irrigation infrastructure through increasing public investment and to develop climate-resilient seeds varieties to cope with climate change. Along with, at the district level government should provide proper training to farmers regarding the usage of pesticides, the proper amount of fertilizers, and irrigation systems.

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Abbreviations

ADF:

Augmented Dickey-Fuller

AIC:

Akaike information criterion

ARCH:

Auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity

ARDL:

Auto-regressive distributed lag

CCKP:

Climate change knowledge portal

CSM:

Crop simulation model

CUSUM:

Cumulative sum test

CUSUMQ:

Cumulative sum of squared test

ECT:

Error correction term

FGLS:

Feasible generalized least square

LM:

Lagrange multiplier

NARDL:

Non-linear autoregressive distributed lag

PP:

Phillips-Perron

RBI:

Reserve Bank of India

RCP:

Representative Concentration pathways

RESET:

Ramsay Regression Equation Specification Error Test

WDI:

World Development Indicators

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, India

    Imran Ali Baig, Zeeshan Anis Khan & Md.Abdus Salam

  2. College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, China

    Abbas Ali Chandio

  3. Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Cag University, 33800, Mersin, Turkey

    Ilhan Ozturk

  4. Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospitsl , China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan

    Ilhan Ozturk

  5. Department of Finance, Asia University, 500 Lioufeng Rd, Taichung, 41354, Wufeng, Taiwan

    Ilhan Ozturk

  6. School of Humanities, Social Sciences and Management, Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneshwar, India

    Pushp Kumar

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  1. Imran Ali Baig
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Contributions

Imran Ali Baig: conceptualization, data curation, formal analysis, writing—original draft. Abbas Ali Chandio: supervision. Ilhan Ozturk: editing and validation, supervision. Pushp Kumar: methodology, investigation, formal analysis. Zeeshan Anis Khan and Md. Abdus Salam: review, editing and made suggestions.

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Baig, I.A., Chandio, A.A., Ozturk, I. et al. Assessing the long- and short-run asymmetrical effects of climate change on rice production: empirical evidence from India. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 34209–34230 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-18014-z

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