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Simulating the spatial distribution of pollutant loads from pig farming using an agent-based modeling approach

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Abstract

This research developed an agent-based model (ABM) for simulating pollutant loads from pig farming. The behavior of farmer agents was captured using concepts from the theory of planned behavior. The ABM has three basic components: the household or farmer agent, the land patches, and global parameters that capture the environmental context. The model was evaluated using a sensitivity analysis and then validated using data from a household survey, which showed that the predictive ability of the model was good. The ABM was then used in three scenarios: a baseline scenario, a positive scenario in which the number of pigs was assumed to remain stable but supporting policies for environmental management were increased, and a negative scenario, which assumed the number of pigs increases but management measures did not improve relative to the baseline. The positive scenario showed reductions in the discharged loads for many sub-basins of the study area while the negative scenario indicated that increased loads will be discharged to the environment. The scenario results suggest that to maintain the development of pig production while ensuring environmental protection for the district, financial, and technical support must be provided to the pig producers. The experience and education level of the farmers were significant factors influencing behaviors related to manure reuse and treatment, so awareness raising through environmental communication is needed in addition to technical measures.

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Availability of data and materials

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon request.

Notes

  1. Please note that the sum of individual effects might not equal the group effect, which resulted from collective individual factor effects.

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Funding

This research was funded by the Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development (NAFOSTED) under grant number 105.99–2018.318.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Vietnam National University of Agriculture, Trau Quy, Gia Lam, Hanoi, Vietnam

    An The Ngo, Giang Thi Huong Nguyen & Duong Huu Nong

  2. Advancing Systems Analysis Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria

    Linda See

Authors
  1. An The Ngo
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  2. Giang Thi Huong Nguyen
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  3. Duong Huu Nong
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  4. Linda See
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Contributions

Conceptualization: An The Ngo, Giang Huong Thi Nguyen, Linda See; methodology: An The Ngo, Linda See; software: An The Ngo; validation: An The Ngo; formal Analysis: An The Ngo, Giang Huong Thi Nguyen, Duong Huu Nong; investigation: An The Ngo, Giang Huong Thi Nguyen, Duong Huu Nong; resources, An The Ngo, Giang Huong Thi Nguyen, Duong Huu Nong; data curation: An The Ngo, Giang Huong Thi Nguyen, Duong Huu Nong; writing-original draft preparation: An The Ngo, Giang Huong Thi Nguyen, Duong Huu Nong, Linda See; writing—review and editing: An The Ngo, Linda See; visualization: An The Ngo, Linda See; supervision: An The Ngo; project administration: An The Ngo; funding acquisition: An The Ngo. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to An The Ngo or Linda See.

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Ngo, A.T., Nguyen, G.T.H., Nong, D.H. et al. Simulating the spatial distribution of pollutant loads from pig farming using an agent-based modeling approach. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 42037–42054 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17112-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17112-2

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