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Applying a dynamic ARDL approach to the Environmental Phillips Curve (EPC) hypothesis amid monetary, fiscal, and trade policy uncertainty in the USA

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Abstract

It is well known that unemployment and environmental degradation are two critical issues across the globe. However, there is an extended dearth of literature that explores the nexus between unemployment and environmental degradation. Kashem and Rahman (Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 27(101): 31153–31170, 2020) put forward the Environmental Phillips Curve (EPC) hypothesis, which depicts a negative relationship between unemployment and environmental degradation. This study further explores the validity of the EPC hypothesis in the case of the USA. It also investigates the impact of monetary policy uncertainty (MU), fiscal policy uncertainty (FU), and trade policy uncertainty (TU) on carbon dioxide emissions. To this end, the analysis employs the novel methodology of the dynamic ARDL model. The results document that EPC does not hold in the short run, but it does in the long run. Furthermore, both in the short and long run, MU escalates CO2 emissions, while FU plunges emissions in both the short and long run. Finally, TU does not alter the level of CO2 emissions.

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Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Daffodil International University, Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Roni Bhowmik

  2. National Tariff Commission, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Qasim Raza Syed

  3. University of Piraeus, Piraeus, Greece

    Nicholas Apergis

  4. School of Accounting and Finance, University of Vaasa, 65101, Vaasa, Finland

    Andrew A. Alola

  5. South Ural State University (National Research University), Chelyabinsk, Russian Federation

    Andrew A. Alola

  6. Nan Yang Academy of Sciences, Singapore, Singapore

    Zeyu Gai

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  1. Roni Bhowmik
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  2. Qasim Raza Syed
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  4. Andrew A. Alola
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Contributions

Conceptualization: Roni Bhowmik, Qasim Raza Syed, Andrew Alola

Methodology: Nicholas Apergis, Andrew Alola, Zeyu Gai

Formal analysis and investigation: Roni Bhowmil, Qasim Raza Syed, Andrew Alola

Writing—original draft preparation: Nicholas Apergis, Zeyu Gai

Writing—review and editing: Qasim Raza Syed, Nicholas Apergis

Resources: Andrew Alola, Zeyu Gai

Supervision: Nicholas Apergis

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Correspondence to Qasim Raza Syed.

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Bhowmik, R., Syed, Q.R., Apergis, N. et al. Applying a dynamic ARDL approach to the Environmental Phillips Curve (EPC) hypothesis amid monetary, fiscal, and trade policy uncertainty in the USA. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 14914–14928 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-16716-y

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