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Climate change and major crop production: evidence from Pakistan

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Abstract

Climatic changes are posing serious threats to crop production and food insecurity across the globe. This study explores the dynamic relationship between changing annual temperature and production of major crops such as wheat, rice, bajra, jowar, maize, barley, gram, sugar cane, mastered oil, and cotton in Pakistan from 2000 to 2019 through an eclectic production model. The estimated result of panel econometric analysis revealed a significant negative effect of rising temperature on selected crop production in the long run with an insignificant impact in the short run. Among other explanatory variables, the area under cultivation and fertilizer input have significant positive effects in both the long run and the short run. Improved quality seeds revealed insignificant effects and urging authorities to enhance quality research to develop climate change resilient crops. This study urges Pakistan to improve agriculture technology along with adopting other greenhouse gas mitigation, such as forestation and clean energy, and water conservation policies.

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Data availability

The data of this study is taken from open sources of data, which can be provided on request.

Notes

  1. Average annual temperature data is not used as logarithm for two reasons. First, it remains the same for all cross-sections. Second, values are taken in terms of annual change in temperature.

Abbreviations

FMOLS:

Fully modified ordinary least square

DOLS:

Dynamic ordinary least square

CO2 :

Carbon dioxide

GHGs:

Greenhouse gases

IPCC:

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

PMG:

Pooled mean group

FAO:

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

GDP:

Gross domestic product

ARDL:

Autoregressive distributed lag model

LLC:

Levin, Lin, and Chu

IPS:

Im, Pesaran, and Shin

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation

    Shujaat Abbas

  2. Department of Economics, Institute of Business Management, Karachi, Pakistan

    Shujaat Abbas

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  1. Shujaat Abbas
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Abbas, S. Climate change and major crop production: evidence from Pakistan. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 5406–5414 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-16041-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-16041-4

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