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GPS-ZTD data assimilation and its impact on wintertime haze prediction over North China Plain using WRF 3DVAR and CMAQ modeling system

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Abstract

Severe haze frequently hits the North China Plain (NCP), especially in winter during recent years. Meteorological factors affect aerosol formation and its optical properties, and accurate meteorological fields are imperative for accurate aerosol simulations. The impacts of Global Positioning System Zenith Total Delay (GPS-ZTD) data assimilation on meteorology and aerosol simulations were evaluated in this study using the WRF-CMAQ (the Weather Research and Forecasting model and Community Multiscale Air Quality) modelling system over the NCP during 01–31 December 2019. After bias correction, GSP-ZTD data were assimilated into the WRF model using the 3DVAR technique. Two sensitivity tests (CTR and ZTD) were conducted. The WRF model had generally acceptable performance for surface and upper air meteorological variables, PM2.5 and visibility. From the aspect of BIAS, STDE, RMSE, and R, the assimilation of ZTD data improved the underestimation of ground relative humidity (RH). The improvement was more pronounced in the first 18 forecast hours. The mean RH BIAS decreased by 8%. Surface pressure was also improved in ZTD. The influence of ZTD data assimilation on ground temperature and wind tended to be neutral. The BIAS of ZTD decreased by 3% after data assimilation while STED or RMSE increased slightly. After ZTD data assimilation, the PM2.5 underestimation decreased by 3.4% over NCP. And station mean BIAS or RMSE of PM2.5 decreased at more than 70% stations. After ZTD data assimilation, the visibility overestimation was reduced by 2.5%. And more than 81% stations over had lower visibility BIAS or RMSE. Station mean PM2.5 mass concentration increased by 1.5% in ZTD. The primary aerosol species increased by approximately 1%, and most secondary aerosol species increased by greater than 2% affected by both aerosol physical and chemical process. Although the improvement of PM2.5 seems marginal from the perspective of regional or temporal average, the contribution of ZTD data assimilation on specific pollution episodes at specific stations can be great. The improvement of PM2.5 troughs was in the range of 1–5 μg/m3, while the overestimation of PM2.5 peaks was reduced by few up to dozens μg/m3. This will contribute to the extreme value prediction during pollution episode.

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Availability of data and materials

The dataset used and analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Funding

This work was performed under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grants 41705133), and the open project of State Key Laboratory of Sever Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science (grants 2020LASW-B03).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Meteorological Observation Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China

    Lina Gao, Peng Yan, Yong Zhang, Heng Hu & Hong Liang

  2. State Key Laboratory of Sever Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing, 100081, China

    Lina Gao & Xudong Liang

  3. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, 80301, USA

    Zhiquan Liu

  4. Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100089, China

    Dan Chen

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  1. Lina Gao
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  2. Zhiquan Liu
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Contributions

LG, ZL, DC, and PY designed the research. LG performed experiments and analyzed results. HH and HL provided GPS-ZTD observations and discussed about the result. LG wrote the paper with contributions from ZL and DC. YZ and XL helped with funding acquisition, supervised the project and discussed about the result.

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Correspondence to Lina Gao.

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Gao, L., Liu, Z., Chen, D. et al. GPS-ZTD data assimilation and its impact on wintertime haze prediction over North China Plain using WRF 3DVAR and CMAQ modeling system. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28, 68523–68538 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-15248-9

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