Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Evaluation of lifestyle risk factor differences in global patterns of breast cancer mortality and DALYs during 1990–2017 using hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Environmental Science and Pollution Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

A Correction to this article was published on 31 May 2021

This article has been updated

Abstract

Background

Statistical evidence on breast cancer (BC) burden related to health and lifestyle risk factors are valuable for health policy-making. This study aimed to compare the trends in BC mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to various health and life style risk factors among different world’s regions according to sociodemographic index (SDI).

Methods

We extracted the age-standardized and age-specific rate of mortality and DALYs of women BC during 1990–2017 using the comparative risk assessment framework of the 2017 global burden of disease (GBD) study. We performed hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis to estimate age- and time-related trends, and effect of interactions between different risk factors on BC risk.

Results

During 1990–2017, the age-standardized rate of mortality and DALYs of women BC was increasing in less developed and under developing regions. The risk factor alcohol use [RR 51.3(95%CI 17.6–149.7)] and smoking [5.9(2.0–17.3)] were significantly highly contributor to increased mortality risk in high SDI region. Whereas in the low-SDI region, the greater mortality risk was observed in alcohol use [6.9(2.4–17)] and high FPG [2.7(1.5–3.1)]-related deaths. The adjusting for individual age, period, and risk factor effects, the significant interaction effect between metabolic risk factors and older ages were observed in all SDI regions and globally as well. However, an increasing cohort effect of alcohol, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and smoking-related death, and DALYs was observed during 1960 to 1985 cohorts among low-SDI regions.

Conclusions

The age-standardized rates of mortality and DALYs due to BC has been increasing in low-SDI region. Alcohol consumption, high body mass index (BMI), high FPG, and smoking are potential BC risk factors particularly in older ages that leading to adverse disease outcomes. Therefore, rapid aging and prevalence of these prospective risk factors may strengthen the increasing mortality and DALYs of BC in low-SDI region. Hence, preventive measure along with strict action against concerned BC risk factors should be taken to reduce the disease burden specifically among lower-SDI regions.

Graphical abstract

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

Data Availability

The dataset analyzed during the current study are available in the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME): http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool.

Change history

Abbreviations

BC:

Breast cancer

GBD:

Global burden of diseases

SDI:

Sociodemographic index

YLD:

Years lived with disability

YLL:

Years of life lost

DALYs:

Disability adjusted life years

CODEm:

Cause of Death Ensemble Model

DR:

Death rates

MR:

Mortality rates

ASMRs:

Age-standardized mortality rates

HAPC:

Hierarchical age-period-cohort

RR:

Relative risk

LRT:

Likelihood ratio tests

AIC:

Akaike’s information criteria

BIC:

Bayesian information criteria

BMI:

Body mass index

FPG:

Fasting plasma glucose

References

  • Asombang AW, Chishinga N, Nkhoma A, Chipaila J, Nsokolo B, Manda-Mapalo M, Montiero JFG, Banda L, Dua KS (2019) Systematic review and meta-analysis of esophageal cancer in Africa: Epidemiology, risk factors, management and outcomes. World J Gastroenterol 25(31):4512–4533

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bandera EV, Maskarinec G, Romieu I, John EM (2015) Racial and ethnic disparities in the impact of obesity on breast cancer risk and survival: a global perspective. Adv Nutr 6(6):803–819

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Barnard ME, Boeke CE, Tamimi RM (2015) Established breast cancer risk factors and risk of intrinsic tumor subtypes. Biochimica et Biophysica Acta (BBA)-Reviews on Cancer 1856(1):73–85

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Cooper C (2017) Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 390(10100):1151–1210

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dibaba DT, Ogunsina K, Braithwaite D, Akinyemiju T (2019) Metabolic syndrome and risk of breast cancer mortality by menopause, obesity, and subtype. Breast Cancer Res Treat 174(1):209–218

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Eketunde AO (2020) Diabetes as a Risk Factor for Breast Cancer. Cureus 12(5):e8010–e8010. https://doi.org/10.7759/cureus.8010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferroni P, Riondino S, Buonomo O, Palmirotta R, Guadagni F, Roselli M (2015) Type 2 diabetes and breast cancer: the interplay between impaired glucose metabolism and oxidant stress. Oxidative Med Cell Longev 2015:1–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fitzmaurice C, Abate D, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdel-Rahman O, Abdelalim A, Abdoli A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulle AS (2019) Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study. JAMA oncology 5(12):1749–1768

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Foreman KJ, Lozano R, Lopez AD, Murray CJ (2012) Modeling causes of death: an integrated approach using CODEm. Popul Health Metrics 10(1):1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gakidou E, Afshin A, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abera SF, Aboyans V (2017) Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 390(10100):1345–1422

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goldvaser H, Gal O, Rizel S, Hendler D, Neiman V, Shochat T, Sulkes A, Brenner B, Yerushalmi R (2017) The association between smoking and breast cancer characteristics and outcome. BMC Cancer 17(1):624

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gunn A, Tan T-SA, Moruza K (2019) Does alcohol intake increase breast cancer risk? Evidence-Based Practice 22(5):13–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hopper JL, Dite GS, MacInnis RJ, Liao Y, Zeinomar N, Knight JA, Southey MC, Milne RL, Chung WK, Giles GG, Genkinger JM, McLachlan S-A, Friedlander ML, Antoniou AC, Weideman PC, Glendon G, Nesci S, Andrulis IL, Buys SS, Daly MB, John EM, Phillips KA, Terry MB, KConFab I (2018) Age-specific breast cancer risk by body mass index and familial risk: prospective family study cohort (ProF-SC). Breast Cancer Res 20(1):132. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13058-018-1056-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hou W, Hu S, Li C, Ma H, Wang Q, Meng G, Guo T (2019) Zhang J (2019) Cigarette smoke induced lung barrier dysfunction, EMT, and tissue remodeling: a possible link between COPD and lung cancer. Biomed Res Int 2019:1–10

    Google Scholar 

  • James SL, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A (2018) Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 392(10159):1789–1858

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Juanjuan L, Wen W, Zhongfen L, Chuang C, Jing C, Yiping G, Changhua W, Dehua Y, Shengrong S (2015) Clinical pathological characteristics of breast cancer patients with secondary diabetes after systemic therapy: a retrospective multicenter study. Tumor Biol 36(9):6939–6947. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13277-015-3380-8

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kispert S, McHowat J (2017) Recent insights into cigarette smoking as a lifestyle risk factor for breast cancer. Breast Cancer: Targets and Therapy 9:127

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kyu HH, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A (2018) Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 392(10159):1859–1922

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee K, Kruper L, Dieli-Conwright CM, Mortimer JE (2019) The Impact of Obesity on Breast Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment. Curr Oncol Rep 21(5):41–41. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11912-019-0787-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li N, Deng Y, Zhou L, Tian T, Yang S, Wu Y, Zheng Y, Zhai Z, Hao Q, Song D (2019) Global burden of breast cancer and attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. J Hematol Oncol 12(1):140

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lim SS, Allen K, Bhutta ZA, Dandona L, Forouzanfar MH, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Hay SI, Holmberg M (2016) Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 388(10053):1813–1850

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Malik SS, Baig M, Khan MB, Masood N (2019) Survival analysis of breast cancer patients with different treatments: A multi-centric clinicopathological study. JPMA 69:976–980

    Google Scholar 

  • Masood N, Malik SS (2020) 'Essentials of cancer genomic, computational approaches and precision medicine. Springer

  • McDonald JA, Goyal A, Terry MB (2013) Alcohol Intake and Breast Cancer Risk: Weighing the Overall Evidence. Curr Breast Cancer Rep 5(3):208–221. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12609-013-0114-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mubarik S, Wang F, Malik SS, Shi F, Wang Y, Yu C (2020) A hierarchical age–period–cohort analysis of breast cancer mortality and disability adjusted life years (1990–2015) attributable to modified risk factors among Chinese women. Int J Environ Res Public Health 17(4):1367

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murray CJ, Lopez AD (1999) On the comparable quantification of health risks: lessons from the Global Burden of Disease Study. Epidemiology-Baltimore 10(5):594–605

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Organization WH (2013) Global status report on alcohol and health. WHO, Geneva 2011

    Google Scholar 

  • Pan K, Chlebowski RT, Mortimer JE, Gunther MJ, Rohan T, Vitolins MZ, Adams-Campbell LL, Ho GY, Cheng TYD, Nelson RA (2020) Insulin resistance and breast cancer incidence and mortality in postmenopausal women in the Women’s Health Initiative. Cancer 126(16):3638–3647

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Picon-Ruiz M, Morata-Tarifa C, Valle-Goffin JJ, Friedman ER, Slingerland JM (2017) Obesity and adverse breast cancer risk and outcome: Mechanistic insights and strategies for intervention. CA Cancer J Clin 67(5):378–397. https://doi.org/10.3322/caac.21405

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Poirier AE, Ruan Y, Grevers X, Walter SD, Villeneuve PJ, Friedenreich CM, Brenner DR, Team CS (2019) Estimates of the current and future burden of cancer attributable to active and passive tobacco smoking in Canada. Prev Med 122:9–19

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qian F, Ogundiran T, Hou N, Ndom P, Gakwaya A, Jombwe J, Morhason-Bello I, Adebamowo C, Ademola A, Ojengbede O, Olopade OI, Huo D (2014) Alcohol consumption and breast cancer risk among women in three sub-Saharan African countries. PLoS One 9(9):e106908–e106908. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0106908

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Roth GA, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A (2018) Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 392(10159):1736–1788

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sebrié E, Glantz SA (2006) The tobacco industry in developing countries. BMJ 332(7537):313–314. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.332.7537.313

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shavers VL, Harlan LC, Stevens JL (2003) Racial/ethnic variation in clinical presentation, treatment, and survival among breast cancer patients under age 35. Cancer 97(1):134–147. https://doi.org/10.1002/cncr.11051

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shu X, Wu L, Khankari NK, Shu X-O, Wang TJ, Michailidou K, Bolla MK, Wang Q, Dennis J, Milne RL (2019) Associations of obesity and circulating insulin and glucose with breast cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization analysis. Int J Epidemiol 48(3):795–806

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Skrypnik K, Suliburska J, Skrypnik D, Pilarski Ł, Reguła J, Bogdański P (2017) The genetic basis of obesity complications. Acta Sci Pol Technol Aliment 16(1):83–91

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor C, Correa C, Duane FK, Aznar MC, Anderson SJ, Bergh J, Dodwell D, Ewertz M, Gray R, Jagsi R (2017) Estimating the risks of breast cancer radiotherapy: evidence from modern radiation doses to the lungs and heart and from previous randomized trials. J Clin Oncol 35(15):1641–1649

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vos T, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulkader RS, Abdulle AM, Abebo TA, Abera SF (2017) Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 390(10100):1211–1259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang H, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abraha HN, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NM (2017) Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 390(10100):1084–1150

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang L, Liu L, Lou Z, Ding L, Guan H, Wang F, Yu L, Xiang Y, Zhou F, Xue F, Yu Z (2019) Risk prediction for breast Cancer in Han Chinese women based on a cause-specific Hazard model. BMC Cancer 19(1):128. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-019-5321-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Zhu L, Jiang S, Zhao L, Zhou Y, Niu L, Yan Y, Wang K (2020) Association between body mass index and clinical characteristics, as well as with management, in Chinese patients with breast cancer. J Int Med Res 48(8):0300060520949041

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Xu H-L, Zhang M-L, Yan Y-J, Fang F, Guo Q, Xu D-L, Zhang Z-F, Zhang F, Zhao N-Q, Xu W-H, Qin G-Y (2018) Body mass index and cancer risk among Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. BMC Cancer 18(1):795–795. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-018-4675-0

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Yang Y, Land KC (2006) A mixed models approach to the age-period-cohort analysis of repeated cross-section surveys, with an application to data on trends in verbal test scores. Sociol Methodol 36(1):75–97

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang Y, Land KC (2008) Age–period–cohort analysis of repeated cross-section surveys: fixed or random effects? Sociol Methods Res 36(3):297–326

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang Y, Lee LC (2009) Sex and race disparities in health: Cohort variations in life course patterns. Social forces 87(4):2093–2124

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang Y, Lee LC (2010) Dynamics and heterogeneity in the process of human frailty and aging: evidence from the US older adult population. J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci 65(2):246–255

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeinomar N, Knight JA, Genkinger JM, Phillips K-A, Daly MB, Milne RL, Dite GS, Kehm RD, Liao Y, Southey MC, Chung WK, Giles GG, McLachlan S-A, Friedlander ML, Weideman PC, Glendon G, Nesci S, Andrulis IL, Buys SS, John EM, MacInnis RJ, Hopper JL, Terry MB, kConFab I (2019) Alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking, and familial breast cancer risk: findings from the Prospective Family Study Cohort (ProF-SC). Breast Cancer Res 21(1):128. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13058-019-1213-1

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Qian Y, Jin Z-Y, Dong M, Han R, Zhou J, Zhao J, Zhang Z, Wu M (2013) A meta-analysis on overweight, obesity and the risk of breast cancer in Chinese female population. Zhonghua yu Fang yi xue za zhi [Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine] 47(4):358–362

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Yang J, Cai H, Ye Y (2018) Young age is an independent adverse prognostic factor in early stage breast cancer: a population-based study. Cancer Manag Res 10:4005–4018

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou L, Deng Y, Li N, Zheng Y, Tian T, Zhai Z, Yang S, Hao Q, Wu Y, Song D (2019) Global, regional, and national burden of hodgkin lymphoma from 1990 to 2017: estimates from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Study. J Hematol Oncol 12(1):107

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We are thankful to the funding organizations, including the National Key Research and Development Program of China and National Natural Science Foundation of China, for their support.

Funding

This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 81773552) and National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 36 2018YFC1315302, 2017YFC 1200502).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China

    Sumaira Mubarik, Xiaoxue Liu, Lijun Wang & Chuanhua Yu

  2. Department of Zoology, University of Gujrat, Gujrat, 50700, Pakistan

    Saima Shakil Malik

  3. School of Public Health and Management, Hubei University of Medicine, 30# South Renmin Road, Shiyan, 442000, Hubei, China

    Yong Yu

  4. Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China

    Chuanhua Yu

Authors
  1. Sumaira Mubarik
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Xiaoxue Liu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Saima Shakil Malik
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Lijun Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Yong Yu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Chuanhua Yu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

SM: study design, data analysis and write up, XL: data analysis and interpretation, SSM: study concept, manuscript writing and interpretation, LW and YY: data retrieval and analysis, CY: conceptualization, supervision, data interpretation, and proof reading. All the authors have rechecked the results and proofread complete manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Sumaira Mubarik or Chuanhua Yu.

Ethics declarations

Ethics approval and consent to participate

As the data was collected from online source, i.e., GBD, therefore ethical approval is not applicable.

Consent for publication

Not applicable

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Additional information

Responsible Editor: Lotfi Aleya

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

The original online version of this article was revised: The correct images of Figures 1, 2, 3 and 4 are presented in this paper.

Supplementary Information

ESM 1

Supplementary Figure S1 Age-standardized women breast cancer death rates stratified by various risk factors for 1990 (A,B,C,D,E) and 2017 (F,G,H,I,J). Supplementary Figure S2 Age-standardized women breast cancer DALYs rate stratified by various risk factors for 1990 (A,B,C,D,E) and 2017 (F,G,H,I,J) (PDF 557 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Mubarik, S., Liu, X., Malik, S.S. et al. Evaluation of lifestyle risk factor differences in global patterns of breast cancer mortality and DALYs during 1990–2017 using hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28, 49864–49876 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14165-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14165-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation