Abstract
Since mobile sources are one of the most important sources of air pollution, this paper tries to estimate the health effects and economic burden due to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations from motor vehicles. In this regard, we calculate the economic costs of air pollution emitted by vehicles in Isfahan over the period from March 2018 to March 2020. The concentration of urban traffic pollution based on the generalized additive model (GAM) as well as spatial distribution of pollution is estimated. Health effects are evaluated using AirQ+ updated by the WHO European Centre for Environment and Health. Economic burden of mortality attributable air pollution from traffic is calculated using value of a statistical life (VOSL), and the value of life years (VOLY) approach. The results indicated that the number of deaths attributable to PM2.5 from motor vehicles in these two consecutive years was 136 (95%CI: 89–179), and 147 cases (95%CI: 96–194), respectively. The number of years of life lost due to premature death from air pollution was 2079 years annually. The economic costs imposed under VOSL approach were on average USD 51.7 (95%CI: 43–75) million per year, and according to VOLY approach USD 11.5 (95%CI: 9–13) million per year. These results help to analyze the cost-benefit and prioritize control measures to reduce air pollution. In addition, combination of these results with other externality cost of road traffic can take account for urban transportation planning.
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Notes
Emission inventory refers to a database that lists the amount of air pollutants emitted into the atmosphere by different sources over a certain period.
Comprehensive studies of transportation and traffic used the EMME/2 travel demand model to extract link-based traffic activity data. In these comprehensive studies, the volume of traffic for the entire urban network by vehicles type has been extracted.
IVE method has been used to calculate emission factors in this report. The International Vehicle Emissions (IVE) Model is a computer model designed to estimate emissions from motor vehicles under different technology and driving situations.
Abbreviations
- PM2.5 :
-
fine particulate matter
- GAM:
-
generalized additive model
- R 2 :
-
determination coefficient
- WHO:
-
World Health Organization
- RH:
-
relative humidity
- Temp-max:
-
maximum temperature
- VOLY:
-
value of life years
- YLL:
-
years of life lost
- VOSL:
-
value of a statistical life
- GDP:
-
gross domestic product
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Mozhgan Soleimani, Nematollah Akbari, and Babak Saffari. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Mozhgan Soleimani and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript. The individual contributions of authors are summarized below:
Conceptualization: Mozhgan Soleimani, Nematollah Akbari. Methodology: Mozhgan Soleimani. Formal analysis and investigation: Babak Saffari. Writing—original draft preparation: Mozhgan Soleimani. Writing—review and editing: Mozhgan Soleimani, Nematollah Akbari. Resources: Mozhgan Soleimani, Babak Saffari, Hossein Haghshenas. Supervision: Nematollah Akbari. Software: Mozhgan Soleimani, Babak Saffari. Visualization: Babak Saffari, Hossein Haghshenas.
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Highlights
• Fine particle matter concentration was selected as an index for estimating overall health impacts.
• PM2.5 pollutant levels from transportation network were temporally and spatially studied.
• Health risk appraisal of PM2.5 from motor vehicles in Isfahan was implemented by AirQ+ software.
• Economic burden of health endpoints was evaluated using VOSL and VOLY approaches.
Appendices
Appendix 1
Appendix 2
Appendix 3
Isfahan vehicle traffic, air pollution monitoring station, and meteorological stations network
Appendix 4
Population density distribution in the city area
Appendix 5
Histogram of Log (PM2.5) and Q-Q plot for normality test of Log (PM2.5)
Appendix 6
Check residual plots for the generalized additive model
Appendix 7. Relationship between PM2.5 concentration and relative risk
Left: for all-cause mortality in 2018–2019. Right: for IHD mortality in 2018–2019
Left: for LC mortality in 2018–2019. Right: for COPD mortality in 2018–2019
Left: for all-cause mortality in 2019–2020. Right: for IHD mortality in 2019–2020
Left: for COPD mortality in 2019–2020. Right: for LC mortality in 2019–2020
Appendix 8
YLL in different ages in 2018–2019
Mid year population in different ages in 2018–2019
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Soleimani, M., Akbari, N., Saffari, B. et al. Estimation of economic costs of air pollution caused by motor vehicles in Iran (Isfahan). Environ Sci Pollut Res 28, 66535–66555 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-13504-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-13504-6