Abstract
In the face of rapid growth in the global demands for water, energy, and food, building large dams is expected to continue. Due to its potential opportunities and risks for the people of the Eastern Nile Basin, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River has commanded regional and international attention. Once completed, it will rank the largest hydropower dam in Africa and among the largest worldwide. Discourse among scientists and negotiators from Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on the design, initial filling, and long-term operation of the GERD is ongoing since the construction started in 2011, but no agreement has yet been reached. The discourse has hitherto focused on the impacts on hydropower production, water availability, and irrigated agriculture, with little attention to the dam’s potential environmental impacts. Here, we communicate our viewpoint on this gap, drawing on knowledge from other dams around the world and some GERD characteristics. The hydrological alterations associated with the GERD could adversely impact fish, aquatic plants, and biodiversity in the downstream due to possible changes in water temperature, salinity, and oxygen content. The GERD’s expected flooded area, location at low latitude in the tropics, and the deep turbine intakes could intensify greenhouse gas emissions, whereas the dam’s high reservoir depth would abate the emissions. The dam’s electricity could also reduce regional greenhouse gas emissions if combined with cleaner intermittent solar and wind energy sources. With a maximum reservoir area of 1904 km2, surface evaporation and consequently local extreme precipitation and humidity could increase. The aforementioned impacts could have transboundary ecological, agricultural, and health implications and, therefore, should be taken into consideration alongside the benefits of the dam.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The hydrological modeling data used in this study are not publicly available due to state restrictions and contain information that could compromise research participant privacy/consent.
References
Ahmed A. (2009) Gezira Scheme irrigation system performance after 80 years of operation. In: International Conference on Water, Environment, Energy and Society. New Delhi
Akhtar M, Mensching HG (1993) Desertification in the Butana. GeoJournal 31:41–50. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00815902
Al Zayed IS, Elagib NA (2017) Implications of non-sustainable agricultural water policies for the water-food nexus in large-scale irrigation systems: a remote sensing approach. Adv Water Resour 110:408–422. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.07.010
Alrajoula MT, Al Zayed IS, Elagib NA, Hamdi MR (2016) Hydrological, socio-economic and reservoir alterations of Er Roseires Dam in Sudan. Sci Total Environ 566–567:938–948. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.05.029
Al-Taiee TM (1990) The influence of a dam on the downstream degradation of a river bed: case study of the Tigris River. Hydrology in Mountainous Regions II-Artificial Reservoirs; Water and Slopes. IAHS Publ 194:153–160
Barbarossa V, Schmitt RJP, Huijbregts MAJ, Zarfl C, King H, Schipper AM (2020) Impacts of current and future large dams on the geographic range connectivity of freshwater fish worldwide. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 117:3648–3655. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1912776117
Barros N, Cole JJ, Tranvik LJ, Prairie YT, Bastviken D, Huszar VLM, del Giorgio P, Roland F (2011) Carbon emission from hydroelectric reservoirs linked to reservoir age and latitude. Nat Geosci 4:593–596. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1211
Basheer M, Elagib NA (2019) Temporal analysis of water-energy nexus indicators for hydropower generation and water pumping in the Lower Blue Nile Basin. J Hydrol 578:124085. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124085
Basheer M, Wheeler KG, Ribbe L, Majdalawi M, Abdo G, Zagona EA (2018) Quantifying and evaluating the impacts of cooperation in transboundary river basins on the water-energy-food nexus: the Blue Nile Basin. Sci Total Environ 630:1309–1323. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.249
Basheer M, Wheeler KG, Elagib NA, Etichia M, Zagona EA, Abdo GM, Harou JJ (2020) Filling Africa’s largest hydropower dam should consider engineering realities. One Earth 3:277–281. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.08.015
Betrie GD, Mohamed YA, Van Griensven A, et al (2009) Modeling of soil erosion and sediment transport in the Blue Nile Basin using the Open Model Interface Approach. In: Improved Water and Land Management in the Ethiopian Highlands: Its Impact on Downstream Stakeholders Dependent on the Blue Nile. Addis Ababa, pp 132–140
Biro K, Pradhan B, Buchroithner M, Makeschin F (2013) Land use/land cover change analysis and its impact on soil properties in the northern part of Gadarif Region, Sudan. Land Degrad Dev 24:90–102. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.1116
Biswas AK, Tortajada C (2001) Development and large dams: a global perspective. Int J Water Resour Dev 17(1):9–21. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900620120025024
Brismar A (2004) Attention to impact pathways in EISs of large dam projects. Environ Impact Assess Rev 24:59–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0195-9255(03)00162-8
Bunn SE, Arthington AH (2002) Basic principles and ecological consequences of altered flow regimes for aquatic biodiversity. Environ Manag 30:492–507. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-002-2737-0
Bussmann A, Elagib NA, Fayyad M, Ribbe L (2016) Sowing date determinants for Sahelian rainfed agriculture in the context of agricultural policies and water management. Land Use Policy 52:316–328. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.12.007
Chandesris A, Van Looy K, Diamond JS, Souchon Y (2019) Small dams alter thermal regimes of downstream water. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 23:4509–4525. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4509-2019
Chen J, Shi H, Sivakumar B, Peart M (2016) Population, water, food, energy and dams. Renew Sust Energ Rev 56:18–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.11.043
Deemer BR, Harrison JA, Li S, Beaulieu JJ, DelSontro T, Barros N, Bezerra-Neto JF, Powers SM, dos Santos MA, Vonk JA (2016) Greenhouse gas emissions from reservoir water surfaces: a new global synthesis. BioScience 66:949–964. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biw117
Degu AM, Hossain F, Niyogi D, Pielke R, Shepherd JM, Voisin N, Chronis T (2011) The influence of large dams on surrounding climate and precipitation patterns. Geophysical Research Letters 38:n/a-n/a
Demarty M, Bastien J (2011) GHG emissions from hydroelectric reservoirs in tropical and equatorial regions: review of 20 years of CH4 emission measurements. Energy Policy 39:4197–4206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.04.033
Digna RF, Castro-Gama ME, van der Zaag P, Mohamed Y, Corzo G, Uhlenbrook S (2018) Optimal operation of the Eastern Nile System using genetic algorithm, and benefits distribution of water resources development. Water (Switzerland) 10. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10070921
Elagib NA, Mansell MG (2000) Climate impacts of environmental degradation in Sudan. GeoJournal 50(4):311–327. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011071917001
Elagib NA, Khalifa M, Rahma AE, Babker Z, Gamaledin SI (2019) Performance of major mechanized rainfed agricultural production in Sudan: Sorghum vulnerability and resilience to climate since 1970. Agric For Meteorol 276–277:107640. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107640
Fearnside PM (1995) Hydroelectric dams in the Brazilian Amazon as sources of ‘greenhouse’ gases. Environ Conserv 22:7–19. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0376892900034020
Fearnside PM (2002) Greenhouse gas emissions from a hydroelectric reservoir (Brazil’s Tucuruí Dam) and the energy policy implications. Water Air Soil Pollut 133:69–96. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1012971715668
Fearnside PM (2004) Greenhouse gas emissions from hydroelectric dams: controversies provide a springboard for rethinking a supposedly “clean” energy source. Clim Chang 1989:1–8
Fearnside PM (2013) Carbon credit for hydroelectric dams as a source of greenhouse-gas emissions: the example of Brazil’s Teles Pires Dam. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 18:691–699. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-012-9382-6
Fearnside PM, Pueyo S (2012) Greenhouse-gas emissions from tropical dams. Nat Clim Chang 2:382–384. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1540
Gebremicael TG, Mohamed YA, Betrie GD, van der Zaag P, Teferi E (2013) Trend analysis of runoff and sediment fluxes in the Upper Blue Nile basin: a combined analysis of statistical tests, physically-based models and landuse maps. J Hydrol 482:57–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.12.023
Glover EK, Elsiddig EA (2012) The causes and consequences of environmental changes in Gedaref, Sudan. Land Degrad Dev 23:339–349. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2167
Haregeweyn N, Tsunekawa A, Poesen J, Tsubo M, Meshesha DT, Fenta AA, Nyssen J, Adgo E (2017) Comprehensive assessment of soil erosion risk for better land use planning in river basins: case study of the Upper Blue Nile River. Sci Total Environ 574:95–108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.019
Hossain F, Jeyachandran I, Pielke R (2009) Have large dams altered extreme precipitation patterns? Eos 90:453–454. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009EO480001
Kędra M, Wiejaczka Ł (2016) Disturbance of water-air temperature synchronisation by dam reservoirs. Water Environ J 30:31–39. https://doi.org/10.1111/wej.12156
Kelly CA, Rudd JWM, Bodaly RA, Roulet NP, St.Louis VL, Heyes A, Moore TR, Schiff S, Aravena R, Scott KJ, Dyck B, Harris R, Warner B, Edwards G (1997) Increases in fluxes of greenhouse gases and methyl mercury following flooding of an experimental reservoir. Environ Sci Technol 31:1334–1344. https://doi.org/10.1021/es9604931
Kemenes A, Forsberg BR, Melack JM (2007) Methane release below a tropical hydroelectric dam. Geophys Res Lett 34:1–5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029479
Knorr W, Prentice IC, House JI, Holland EA (2005) Long-term sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to warming. Nature 433:298–301. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03226
León-Palmero E, Morales-Baquero R, Reche I (2020) Greenhouse gas fluxes from reservoirs determined by watershed lithology, morphometry, and anthropogenic pressure. Environ Res Lett 15:. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7467
Mohammed K (2015) Ma’akhz wathiqat i’lan almabade’ hawla sad alnahda men almontalaq alilmy alhandasy [Reservations on the Declaration of Principles on GERD from a technical point of view]. Sudacon, In http://www.sudacon.net/2015/04/blog-post_6.html.
Mohammed-Osman TMM (2017) The economic, social and environmental impacts of the Merowe Dam on the development of Sudan during the period (2000–2015). MSc thesis, Al Neelain University
MoIHES (1977) Blue Nile Waters Study Phase IA: availability and use of Blue Nile Water. Khartoum
Moran EF, Lopez MC, Moore N, Müller N, Hyndman DW (2018) Sustainable hydropower in the 21st century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(47):11891–11898. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1809426115
Mulligan M, van Soesbergen A, Sáenz L (2020) GOODD, a global dataset of more than 38,000 georeferenced dams. Scientific Data 7:1–8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0362-5
Nile Basin Initiative (2012) State of the River Nile Basin. Nile Basin Initiative, Entebbe
Ouarda T, Labadie J, Fontane D (1997) Indexed sequential hydrologic modeling for hydropower capacity estimation. J Am Water Resour Assoc 33:1337–1349
Reid AJ, Carlson AK, Creed IF, Eliason EJ, Gell PA, Johnson PTJ, Kidd KA, MacCormack TJ, Olden JD, Ormerod SJ, Smol JP, Taylor WW, Tockner K, Vermaire JC, Dudgeon D, Cooke SJ (2019) Emerging threats and persistent conservation challenges for freshwater biodiversity. Biol Rev 94:849–873. https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12480
Rosenberg DM, Berkes F, Bodaly RA, Hecky RE, Kelly CA, Rudd JWM (1997) Large-scale impacts of hydroelectric development. Environ Rev 5:27–54. https://doi.org/10.1139/a97-001
Scherer L, Pfister S, Kropp JP (2016) Hydropower’s biogenic carbon footprint. PLOS ONE 11 (9). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0161947
Siam MS, Eltahir EAB (2017) Climate change enhances interannual variability of the Nile river flow. Nat Clim Chang 7:350–354. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3273
St. Louis VL, Kelly CA, Duchemin É et al (2000) Reservoir surfaces as sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere: a global estimate. BioScience 50:766–775. https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2000)050[0766:RSASOG]2.0.CO;2
Sterl S, Vanderkelen I, Chawanda CJ, Russo D, Brecha RJ, van Griensven A, van Lipzig NPM, Thiery W (2020) Smart renewable electricity portfolios in West Africa. Nature Sustainability 3(9):710–719. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0539-0
Sulieman HM (2018) Exploring divers of forest degradation and fragmentation in Sudan: the case of Erawashda Forest and its surrounding community. Sci Total Environ 621:895–904. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.210
Sulieman HM, Elagib NA (2012) Implications of climate, land-use and land-cover changes for pastoralism in eastern Sudan. J Arid Environ 85:132–141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2012.05.001
United States Department of the Treasury (2020) Joint statement of Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, the United States and the World Bank. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm891. Accessed 17 Jan 2020
Wheeler KG, Basheer M, Mekonnen Z et al (2016) Cooperative filling approaches for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Water Int 8060:1–24. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2016.1177698
Wheeler K, Hall J, Abdo G et al (2018) Exploring cooperative transboundary river management strategies for the Eastern Nile Basin. Water Resour Res 54:9224–9254. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR022149
Whittington D, Waterbury J, Jeuland M (2014) The Grand Renaissance Dam and prospects for cooperation on the Eastern Nile. Water Policy 16:595–608. https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2014.011
Winchester J, Mahmood R, Rodgers W, Hossain F, Rappin E, Durkee J, Chronis T (2017) A model-based assessment of potential impacts of man-made reservoirs on precipitation. Earth Interactions 21(9):1–31. https://doi.org/10.1175/EI-D-16-0016.1
Woldemichael AT, Hossain F, Pielke R (2014) Impacts of postdam land use/land cover changes on modification of extreme precipitation in contrasting hydroclimate and terrain features. J Hydrometeorol 15:777–800. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-085.1
Woldesenbet TA, Elagib NA, Ribbe L, Heinrich J (2017) Hydrological responses to land use/cover changes in the source region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Sci Total Environ 575:724–741. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.124
Wyatt AB, Baird IG (2007) Transboundary impact assessment in the Sesan River Basin: the case of the Yali Falls Dam. Int J Water Resour Dev 23:427–442. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900620701400443
Xu X, Tan Y, Yang G (2013) Environmental impact assessments of the Three Gorges Project in China: issues and interventions. Earth Sci Rev 124:115–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2013.05.007
Yihdego Z, Rieu-Clarke A, Cascão AE (2016) How has the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam changed the legal, political, economic and scientific dynamics in the Nile Basin? Water Int 41:503–511. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2016.1209008
Zarfl C, Lumsdon AE, Berlekamp J, Tydecks L, Tockner K (2015) A global boom in hydropower dam construction. Aquat Sci 77:161–170. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00027-014-0377-0
Zhang Y, Block P, Hammond M, King A (2015) Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam: implications for downstream riparian countries. J Water Resour Plan Manag 141:05015002. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000520
Zheng S, Xu YJ, Cheng H, Wang B, Xu W, Wu S (2018) Riverbed erosion of the final 565 kilometers of the Yangtze River (Changjiang) following construction of the Three Gorges Dam. Sci Rep 8:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30441-6
Zagona EA, Fulp TJ, Shane R, Timothy Magee H, Goranflo M (2001) Riverware: a generalized tool for complex reservoir system modeling. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 37(4):913–929. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2001.tb05522.x
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Nadir A. Elagib conceptualized and conceived the study, wrote the original draft of the manuscript, and designed Fig. 3a. Mohammed Basheer conducted the hydrological analysis and designed Figs. 1, 2, and 3b. Nadir A. Elagib and Mohammed Basheer contributed to the writing, reviewing, and editing of the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
Ethics approval and consent to participate
Not applicable.
Consent for publication
Not applicable.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Philippe Garrigues
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Elagib, N.A., Basheer, M. Would Africa’s largest hydropower dam have profound environmental impacts?. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28, 8936–8944 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-11746-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-11746-4